Fnatic (World rank: #12) vs. BIG (World rank: #15) - 6:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Fnatic (-195) | BIG (+145)
Map Handicap: Fnatic -1.5 (+155) | BIG +1.5 (-215)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+105) | Under 2.5 (-145)
- This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket quarter-final of the Funspark ULTI 2021 Finals
- Fnatic - Rating past three months: smooya 1.21 | mezii 1.17 | Brollan 1.16 | KRIMZ 1.11 | ALEX 1.03
- BIG - Rating past three months: faveN 1.26 | tabseN 1.11 | syrsoN 1.03 | k1to 0.98 | tiziaN 0.89
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other. The teams did face on LAN in December at IEM Winter 2021, though gade was still on BIG instead of faveN. Fnatic won that series 2-1 (7-16 Inferno / 16-13 Mirage / 19-17 Nuke) and KRIMZ topped the leaderboards with 76 kills and a 1.31 Rating across three maps.
Map Projections:
Fnatic removes Dust2
BIG removes Overpass
Fnatic picks Inferno
BIG picks Mirage
Fnatic removes Vertigo
BIG removes Ancient
Nuke is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Fnatic wins 2-0.
Fnatic have been on fire and have won 34 out of 42 maps played with this lineup. They've dominated the tier two scene, and they even proved themselves at tier one with their performance at IEM Winter 2021, which included wins against ENCE & BIG, and also included a fairly tight series against Gambit that went three maps with two going to overtime. We don’t fully know what to expect from BIG at this point, though replacing gade with faveN obviously looks good on paper since faveN was previously the hard carry for Sprout and gade was mostly struggling within this lineup. FaveN is an elite German talent, so it makes sense that BIG targeted him, and his transfer was the most expensive deal ever for a German player, so expectations are certainly high. I still think that Fnatic has the much better roster though, plus it will likely take some time for the German roster to reach their full potential since this will be their first series played together.
BIG beat Fnatic on Inferno last time these teams met, but that map still seems like a reasonable choice for Fnatic again in this spot. They have a 9-2 W/L record on Inferno with this lineup, and their T side has been dominant with a 69.7% win rate during that time. They also beat BIG 16-3 on Inferno back in November 2021 at DreamHack Open November 2021, and I expect a similar result if they go back to that map here. Dust2 has historically been BIG’s best map, but Fnatic will likely ban it right off the bat, which means that BIG may need to pick a back-up map like Mirage, where they have also had some success with a 5-3 W/L record in the past three months. However, we can’t be certain of BIG’s map pick with their new roster, plus faveN’s old team, Sprout, had their lowest win rate across any map in 2021 on Mirage, which is somewhat notable. Either way, I see this as a 2-0 victory for Fnatic, and my priority on Draftkings would be to stack three from Fnatic with smooya as must-play and Brollan as my favorite value option.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
smooya ($9,000) | Brollan ($7,600) | mezii ($8,400) | KRIMZ ($6,600) | syrsoN ($6,200) | ALEX ($5,600)
Gambit (World rank: #2) vs. Complexity (World rank: #28) - 9:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-1350) | Complexity (+700)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (-265) | Complexity +1.5 (+190)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+225) | Under 2.5 (-325)
- This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket quarter-final of the Funspark ULTI 2021 Finals
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.22 | HObbit 1.15 | Ax1Le 1.11 | nafany 1.03 | interz 0.95
- Complexity - Rating past three months: junior 1.28 | floppy 1.20 | FaNg 1.19 | JT 1.11 | Grim 0.92
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
Gambit removes Nuke
Complexity removes Dust2
Gambit picks Vertigo
Complexity picks Inferno
Gambit removes Ancient
Complexity removes Mirage
Overpass is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Gambit wins 2-1.
This new Complexity roster includes three core members previously of Extra Salt (floppy, FaNg, JT) along with Grim from Liquid and junior from Bad News Bears/FURIA. So, there are a lot of moving parts on the Complexity side, but the newly formed North American roster does appear to have some potential. OSee used to be the star for Extra Salt, so it will be interesting to see the core members play without his presence on the server, but I do think that there is still plenty of firepower for the North Americans. Their first match-up is a bit of a nightmare considering they have to face the number two team in the world, Gambit. Nevertheless, I think that this series could still be a bit scrappy despite Complexity being a massive underdog. Gambit are the type of team to punish every single mistake that a team makes, and a new roster like Complexity is bound to make mistakes. However, Gambit also meticulously prepares for their match-ups, and it will be tough for them to do that here with no prior matches to look at, which could be an x-factor. Gambit finished 2021 with a second place finish at the BLAST Premier World Final and they were in great form when we last saw them play. Online matches are also where Gambit seem to thrive, so there are plenty of reasons to expect them to pull through as the heavy favorite, and Complexity is not a lock by any means. Still, I think there is enough value on the side of Complexity to maybe take a shot on Draftkings at the cheap pricing. Perhaps Complexity is capable of winning a map here.
In the past three months, Gambit have a win rate of at least 50% on every map in the pool (besides their permaban, Nuke), and they would be considered favorites on any map that could be played here. Complexity’s best option for pulling off the upset would likely be Inferno, where Gambit have lost three of their last five. The map also lends itself to upsets since utility is such a big factor, and some rounds come down to gamble stacking sites. Gambit will likely win the series, so they would be the obvious play on Draftkings for a stack, but I like the idea of mixing in a value one-off from Extra Salt, like floppy. Grim also seems way too cheap at $4,200, though he certainly carries plenty of risk.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
Ax1Le ($8,200) | HObbit ($8,800) | sh1ro ($9,400) | floppy ($6,000) | nafany ($7,200) | junior ($6,800) | interz ($6,400) | Grim ($4,200)