Gambit (World rank: #2) vs. Entropiq (World rank: #9) - 6:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Gambit (-260) | Entropiq (+205)
Map Handicap: Gambit -1.5 (+120) | Entropiq +1.5 (-145)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+125) | Under 2.5 (-150)
- This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket semi-finals of Funspark ULTI 2021 Finals.
- Gambit - Rating at event: sh1ro 1.48 | Ax1Le 1.25 | HObbit 1.19 | interz 1.03 | nafany 0.97
- Gambit - Rating past three months: sh1ro 1.24 | HObbit 1.15 | Ax1Le 1.12 | nafany 1.03 | interz 0.96
- Entropiq - Rating at event: Forester 1.30 | Krad 1.15 | Lack1 1.14 | NickelBack 1.13 | El1an 1.09
- Entropiq - Rating past three months: El1an 1.16 | Forester 1.12 | Krad 1.05 | NickelBack 1.00 | Lack1 0.99
H2H Data:
- These rosters last faced in November at the grand final of V4 Future Sports Festival 2021. Gambit quickly found themselves with a two map advantage, but Entropiq battled back with two maps of their own to force a fifth map in a 3-2 win for Gambit (16-10 Vertigo / 16-12 Ancient / 13-16 Overpass / 7-16 Mirage / 16-4 Dust2). HObbit finished with the highest Rating (1.27) while Ax1Le led the server in kills (103).
Map Projections:
Gambit removes Nuke
Entropiq removes Inferno
Gambit picks Vertigo
Entropiq picks Mirage
Gambit removes Overpass
Entropiq removes Dust2
Ancient is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: Gambit wins 2-1.
Gambit dropped a map on Wednesday against Complexity, which may be a cause for concern considering Complexity have a brand new lineup, including JT, who was playing away from the team on 140 ping due to visa issues. Still, Gambit has historically dominated this match-up against Entropiq. These rosters played three best-of-threes in 2021 and Gambit won all of them. Entropiq did find some success against Gambit later in the year at PGL Major Stockholm, and they almost pulled a reverse sweep at V4 Future Sports Festival 2021, but both of those events were on LAN, and Gambit has mainly thrived in the online world of Counter-Strike. With FunSpark ULTI taking place online, I have to give Gambit an edge. This might not be the most important event of the year, but this is Gambit’s comfort zone, and they are against an opponent that they have beaten several times in the past.
These rosters have faced on Vertigo five times and Gambit has won four times with the only loss coming in a best-of-one on LAN at the Major. Gambit did just lose to Complexity on Vertigo earlier at this event, but I still think Vertigo makes sense as their pick considering it is their most played map in recent months, and they have had a ton of success in the past. Their W/L record on Vertigo in the past three months is only 6-4, but I expect that win rate to increase in the future considering they had a 38-6 W/L record on Vertigo in 2021. Plus, Vertigo is one of Entropiq’s worst maps as they have lost nine of their last 13 matches played. Gambit have a win rate of at least 50% on every map in the pool in the past three months (besides their permaban, Nuke), but perhaps Mirage would be Entropiq’s best chance of pulling the upset considering they bullied Gambit last time on that map, 16-7. Ancient could easily be the decider map here, and Gambit have their highest win rate across any map in the past three months on Ancient with a 5-1 W/L record, including an impressive 41.9% 4v5 conversion rate during that time. These teams do have some history and I could see this being fairly close, but I still give Gambit a sizable edge. My preferred play on Draftkings would be to stack three from Gambit with sh1ro as the top option since he is the only member of his team with a positive K/D ratio on Mirage in the past three months at 1.22. Ax1Le is the only other member of Gambit with a Rating above on Mirage during that time at 1.04, and I think his value on Draftkings looks tremendous at a $7,600 price tag. Sh1ro is also the highest rated player at this event so far with a 1.48 Rating across three maps played.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
sh1ro ($9,600) | Ax1Le ($7,600) | HObbit ($8,600) | nafany ($6,800) | El1an ($7,400) | interz ($6,000)
BIG (World rank: #15) vs. K23 (World rank: #22) - 9:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: BIG (-175) | K23 (+145)
Map Handicap: BIG -1.5 (+170) | K23 +1.5 (-205)
Map Total: Over 2.5 (+115) | Under 2.5 (-140)
- This is a best-of-three series for the upper bracket semi-finals of Funspark ULTI 2021 Finals.
- BIG - Rating at event: syrsoN 1.20 | tabseN 1.12 | tiziaN 1.09 | k1to 1.06 | faveN 0.95
- BIG - Rating past three months: faveN 1.24 | tabseN 1.11 | syrsoN 1.04 | k1to 0.99 | tiziaN 0.90
- K23 - Rating at event: xsepower 1.13 | X5G7V 0.90 | n0rb3r7 0.89 | fame 0.87 | neaLaN 0.82
- K23 - Rating past three months: n0rb3r7 1.17 | xsepower 1.16 | fame 1.12 | X5G7V 1.07 | neaLaN 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Map Projections:
BIG removes Ancient
K23 removes Vertigo
BIG picks Dust2
K23 picks Overpass
BIG removes Inferno
K23 removes Nuke
Mirage is left over.
Prediction/Narrative: K23 wins 2-1.
K23 surprised a lot of people when they opened this event with an upset over Astralis. Perhaps Astralis did not have their best performance, but a best-of-three win with two maps going to overtime is certainly not a complete fluke. K23 bolstered their roster in October 2021 with xsepower & X5G7V, and it became immediately clear that this team had potential. They have now won 10 series in a row, including wins against Astralis, Dignitas, Copenhagen Flames, Entropiq & ECSTATIC, and it is hard to ignore this team and the success that they are having. On the other side you have BIG, who just spent the most money ever on signing a German talent when they acquired faveN. It is obvious that faveN is an upgrade in firepower compared to gade, but BIG have only played one series together with this lineup, and faveN did not find much impact despite his team pulling the upset. FaveN finished as the lowest rated member of BIG across three maps against Fnatic (0.95 Rating) and he had only 44 kills while his next lowest teammate was tiziaN at 59 kills. Fnatic also have played BIG three times already with their current roster, so there was history between those teams, plus Fnatic are already out of this event coming in last place, so I don’t want to overreact to BIG pulling the upset. I still think the Germans will have a lot to work on with their new lineup, and I would give K23 a slight edge at the moment.
BIG will have the opportunity to pick their favorite map in the pool, Dust2, which is where they have had the most success in the past three months with a 5-3 W/L record, though faveN has not played that map with them yet. However, K23 may welcome the challenge considering their lineup has never lost on Dust2 with a perfect 6-0 record in the past three months. Their CT side has been outstanding with a 74.1% CT round win rate, and their 5v4 conversion rate and 4v5 conversion rate have both been elite at 79.8% and 42.4%, respectively. Dust2 seems to be BIG’s best chance of taking a map, and even that does not appear to be a guarantee. K23 has a very strong map pool right now with a win rate above 57% on every map in the pool besides Inferno (and Vertigo, which is their permaban). BIG have historically struggled on Inferno, so it is unlikely that they try to punish pick K23 with that map. Thus, K23 should have a great chance of pulling the upset here given the strength of their map pool, and I like stacking two or three players from K23 on Draftkings. My favorite DK play would be xsepower who leads his team at this event with a 1.13 Rating and is only $7,200. Xsepower also leads his team on Dust2 with a 1.71 K/D ratio and 1.37 Rating.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
xsepower ($7,200) | n0rb3r7 ($8,000) | X5G7V ($5,600) | fame ($6,400) | syrsoN ($7,000) | neaLaN ($4,800) | tabseN ($7,800)