NBA DFS Showdown Playbook: Lakers vs. Heat
Published: Nov 10, 2021
Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers
O/U: 214
Spread: MIA -4.5
Injuries:
Miami
Bam Adebayo QUES
Tyler Herro QUES
PJ Tucker QUES
Markieff Morris OUT
Victor Oladipo OUT
Los Angeles
Rajon Rondo QUES
LeBron James OUT
Kendrick Nunn OUT
Trevor Ariza OUT
Anthony Davis PROB
MVP/CPT
Anthony Davis, PF/C – David did exactly what everyone expected him to do against the Hornet on Monday when he demolished their frontcourt for 32 points, 12 rebounds, four assists, five blocks and three steals on his way to 68.5 DraftKings points. I wouldn’t expect a repeat against a Heat squad that is in the top third of the league in fantasy points allowed to power forwards. But Davis provides the most consistent numbers on the Laker at a salary lower than Russell Westbrook.
Russell Westbrook, PG – We have seen the absolute floor and the ceiling for Westbrook in the last two games with 60 DK points against the Hornets after only 29 against the Trail Blazers. The Heat are absolutely shutting down point guards this year, so the question you have to ask is which version of Westbrook do you think will show up tonight?
Jimmy Butler, SF – For game to game consistency, there is no better player for your MVP spot than Butler. He has one game this year where he scored below 36.5 DK points and he has reached more than 45 points six times already. The Lakers are second in Pace (Heat are 28th) and only 14th in defensive rating this year, which should mean good things for Butler with those extra possessions.
Mid Tier
Bam Adebayo, C – Adebayo gets relegated to this tier because of the lingering concerns about his knee injury. He is Questionable tonight, but even if plays it won’t be in the MVP spot for me. His production has been affected by the injury as he attempts to recover. He only has 30 DK points per game in his last three when he was at 43.9 points in his five previous games.
Tyler Herro, PG/SG – Herro at a $9,200 salary may inspire some sticker shock for some, but his recent play absolutely warrants it. First, he is playing low- to mid-30’s minutes every single night despite coming off the bench. Second, he has at least 25 DK points in all but one game this year, and is over 34 per game on the year. The cherry on top is the Lakers have allowed the eighth-most made three pointers this year. Giddy up.
Carmelo Anthony, PF – The Lakers are an interesting team, especially when LeBron James is healthy. When the Big Three are on the court, there is so little usage to go around to the rest of the team, there is very little value on the rest of the roster. At least Anthony is playing major minutes in LeBron’s absence and has scored at least 21 actual points in three of five games. In terms of a mid-tier play on the Lakers, Anthony is about your only option.
Value Tier
Malik Monk, SG – Another player seeing a slight uptick in playing time during LeBron’s absence is Monk, who recently emerged from a horrific slump. In his past two games since a four-game stretch averaging 3.5 DK points per game, Monk is at 20 DK points in 19.5 minutes per game. That type of production will certainly pay the bills at a salary of just $2,200.
Duncan Robinson, SG/SF – Robinson is about as streaky a player as you can find right now, with six games over 20 DK points and three games under 16. We know Robinson will play at least 24-27 minutes in this one, and if his three pointers are falling (Lakers allow opponents to shoot 34%), this could be a game where Robinson easily hits value at $4,600.
Player News
ESPN’s Shams Charania reported Zach Edey will undergo surgery to re-stabilize his left ankle.
Charania’s report indicates that Edey re-sprained the same ankle that forced him to miss some time last season. It came during an offseason workout, and he is expected to miss time to start next season. Edey secured the starting center spot for Memphis late last season after playing an inconsistent role for most of his rookie year. Head coach Tuomas Iisalo could opt to use Brandon Clarke as the starting center if he’s healthy, or he could use a smaller starting lineup with Jaren Jackson Jr. to start next season. The Grizzlies’ PR team announced that a preliminary timeline will be provided after he has the surgery, but as of now, the expectation is that he won’t be available for opening night.
De’Aaron Fox (finger) has been cleared for on-court work and will be ready for the start of next season.
Fox underwent season-ending surgery on his left pinkie finger in mid-March, about six weeks after being traded to the Spurs from Sacramento. He recently told Danielle Lerner of the Houston Chronicle that he’s been cleared to resume on-court activities, which have included some 5-on-5 play. Also, Fox hopes to ink a contract extension with the Spurs this offseason. With one year remaining on his current deal, the point guard will be eligible for a four-year extension worth up to $229 million on August 3.
NBC Sports Boston’s Chris Mannix said recently that Sam Hauser could be a trade candidate this offseason if the Celtics decide to shed salary.
The cost of contending for championships has gotten steeper, especially with the salary cap rules instituted in recent years. For the Celtics, the Achilles tendon rupture suffered by Jayson Tatum may impact how the front office approaches this offseason. If the team decides that a group that won’t have Tatum for most of the season can’t be a factor in the East, the decision could be made to shed salary. And Hauser, whose four-year, $45 million extension goes into effect next season, may be a prime candidate to be moved. “Hauser, to me, is the most likely candidate to go, just because you have (Baylor) Scheierman there to effectively fill his role,” Mannix said. “I think they’d love to find a home for Jrue Holiday, just because of the contract and where they are as a team. (Kristaps) Porzingis, who knows? I don’t think they want to take on contracts that go on longer than Porzingis’ deal, but he’s certainly available.” Hauser being traded would make Scheierman worth a look in deep fantasy leagues next season.
NBA insider Marc Stein reported the Knicks are interested in talking to Mavericks coach Jason Kidd regarding the team’s head coaching vacancy.
Multiple names have been mentioned in the aftermath of the Knicks’ decision to fire Tom Thibodeau after he led the team to its first Eastern Conference Finals since 2000. One who has been mentioned prominently is Kidd, who is under contract with the Mavericks. His connection with Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson may be a factor, as the captain has repeatedly credited the coach with his development as a professional. However, Dallas would need to grant the Knicks permission to speak with Kidd. And if a deal were to be made, New York does not have much draft capital to give up as compensation. Also mentioned in connection with the opening are Cavaliers assistant Johnnie Bryant, Timberwolves coach Chris Finch and Rockets coach Ime Udoka. Stein also reported that Houston would quickly deny permission to speak with Udoka if the Knicks were to make that request.
Obi Toppin provided a boost off the bench with 17 points (6-of-9 FGs), five rebounds, two assists and five three-pointers in Game 1 against the Thunder on Thursday.
Toppin has been solid throughout this postseason, but he hasn’t had many big scoring nights. However, after he had 18 points in the Game 6 clincher over the Knicks, he added 17 more to kick off the Finals, with 15 of those points coming from beyond the arc. If Toppin is able to continue to make an impact off the bench like he did in this game, there should be more wins coming for the Pacers.
Aaron Nesmith recorded a double-double on Thursday with 10 points (3-of-9 FGs), 12 rebounds, one assist, one block, three three-pointers and five turnovers in Game 1 against the Thunder.
Indiana dominated on the glass in this game, but it wasn’t just because of the bigs. Nesmith was the leading rebounder in this game and was one of three Pacers to grab at least 10 rebounds. However, they lost the turnover battle 24-6, and Nesmith contributed five of those. The only player with more was Myles Turner, who coughed it up six times. Indiana won this game and still has things to clean up, which is an encouraging sign for them moving forward in this series.