NBA DFS Playbook: November 23

We definitely want Westbrook in our lineups when LeBron James is not around. Westbrook has a negative correlation to James this season as they are both on-the-ball usage monsters and playmakers. In terms of raw points, Westbrook might be the best points option on the slate and if Davis sits he goes to the moon. Westbrook also appears too cheap on FD.

Lillard is also too cheap on FD after seven straight games with at least 40 fantasy points. Denver is bottom ten against point guards this year including giving up the fifth-most assists.

Assuming Luka Doncic does not play again, Brunson should be back in mid-30's minutes and gives 40-point upside which we have seen twice this week already.

No Kelly Olynyk, Isaiah Stewart and Killian Hayes for the Pistons tonight. If Cade wasn't already beginning to take over, this might be the coming out party. Miami is tough against point guards, but Cade's usage has been 25%+ in three of four games.

Another surprising usage monster lately. Has been above 25% in eight of his last nine games and scored at least 30 fantasy points in three of his last five. 

Lakers are the stone worst against point guards in DvP this year, allowing two more fantasy points per game than any team. Add in a pace-up spot for the Knicks and Rose can get there even with 20-25 minutes.

Should be one of the punt plays du jour with Hayes out of the lineup. Played a whopping 38 minutes last game and has 20+ fantasy points in in his last three. 

It's a tough scene at shooting guard tonight, so McCollum is the best shot for elite points. McCollum is at exactly one fantasy point per minute this year and plays 35-38 minutes every night. You do the math.

Usage and fantasy points have definitely been better without Doncic. 20%+ in three of five games plus 27.5 fantasy or more in all but one game. 

If Duncan Robinson misses this one, be prepared to fire up Herro no questions asked. He is already cooking lately with at least 30 fantasy points in his last five games. Also has borderline elite usage (30%+) in three of those contests.

Three disappointing games in a row, but had 31-39 fantasy points in four games prior. Minutes have been creeping down as well, so he may be conceding more time to Terrance Mann. 

Another Piston who should get a nice boost with so many bodies out tonight. Surprised everyone with 32 fantasy points on Sunday but certainly has the ceiling if he gets 25+ minutes. He looks close to a must-play on DK if you need a value shooting guard.

Butler in normal circumstances? A great play. Butler if Bam Adebayo misses this game with illness? An ELITE play against a bottom-eight team against small forwards. The line on this game is currently MIA -10.0 but would surely shrink if Bam is out.

Above 36% usage in three of his last four games, so it's just getting silly how much he has the ball. Above 40 fantasy points in 11 of 12 games, he is about as consistent as it comes right now. The FD salary seems a touch too low. 

Minutes and fantasy production are both piling up with no Michael Porter Jr. around. Don't pay attention to the down last game, Portland is the worst team in the league against opposing small forwards. 

In games with Lebron: usage of 18.8% and 13.2%. In games without Lebron: usage of 24.5%, 26.7%, and 28.7%. Lebron is out tonight. Don't overthink it. 

Sounding like a broken record here, but more minutes and shots are available tonight. Bey already plays 32+ minutes per night and has double digit scoring and at least four rebounds in four of his last five. Slightly concerned about the matchup against Butler, so he is down on my list of priority Pistons.

$5,000 on DK for a small forward who has double digit points in 12 of his last 13 games? Produces 20 fantasy points 71.4% of the time this season so has a safe floor. 

Considered questionable tonight with an illness. Likely to be less rostered then Julius Randle considering illness and salary. If he does play, he is an excellent tournament option at the high end (has three games of 68+ points in his past eight), but does have a history of leaving games early if he doesn't feel right. 

MASSIVE pace up spot for Randle (Lakers are 2nd, Knicks are 25th). Shook off a string of down games to post 55 fantasy points in 38 minutes against the Bulls. Usage is above 29% in four of last seven, and Lakers allow most points in the paint per game this season (50.9). A lock at that salary on FD. 

Has been absolutely smashing sans Doncic the last five games. 48.25 fantasy points per game while only playing more than 31 minutes one time. Usage in those five games is over 30%. At less than $9,000 he is still in play if Doncic comes back, but more of a tournament option.

Will Grant play 40 minutes in this one? If Pistons can find a way to keep it close he just might. Grant and Trey Lyles are the last remaining true big men for Detroit and Grant went off for 49.5 fantasy points in the last game with Isaiah Stewart ejected.

Turned back the clock the last two games, averaging 22 points, 9.5 rebounds, four assists and a steal while playing more than 30 minutes. More importantly, the usage in his last game was 27% while the Nuggets search for offensive consistency with all their injuries. 

Minutes were in the teens the first 10 games of the year. Now he has been consistently low 20's for six games. Three of his four best DFS outcomes this year have come in that stretch so the real question is how many minutes does Nurkic get tonight? If you guess right you could have a player who might 10x his salary on DK. 

What is there to say? If he plays, you play him. Missed two straight with a wrist injury and a suspension, but was on a six-game stretch of at least 53 fantasy points before that. The Blazers allow top-five numbers in scoring and assists to centers. 

Another player considered very questionable with an illness, so minutes might be a problem if this turns into a blowout. Hasn't quite looked like himself since returning from injury although he's still playing 30 minutes with a high-20's usage rate. If he sits, lock in Dewayne Dedmon. 

You spin the wheel of chance when you play Nurkic these days. Does he get 29 minutes or 18? Does he have 30% usage or 11%? My thoughts are he will be needed for post defense on Jokic tonight, so the minutes will be there. But it's tournament only and don't get overexposed.

Zubac is about as consistent as they come, which is a nice contrast to Nurkic. He plays 22-28 minutes, he scores 20-30 fantasy points, and has a 10%-19% usage rate. Every. Night. If that helps you in cash, go for it. 

Mitchell Robinson is out tonight and Taj Gibson is doubtful, which should allow Noel to get buckets of minutes on the floor if he stays out of foul trouble. Pace up spot applies here as does the fact that the Lakers are only 23rd in rebound rate and allow more than three blocks per game to opponents. 

Lyles has one game this month with more than 20 fantasy points. It was the one time In November he played more than 18 minutes. With all of the frontcourt injuries and suspensions for Detroit, Lyles should get at least 24 minutes in this one. For the bare minimum on DK, it's a great cash game piece.