NBA DFS Playbook: Dec. 16

Paul was a true slate-breaker on Tuesday with 60 fantasy points and he should continue to flirt with 40+ fantasy points every night that Devin Booker remains out. The Wizards are middle of the pack in every defensive metric and are without Spencer Dinwiddie tonight. If you're looking to pay up at point guard, Paul is your guy.

Over his last six games, Cunningham is scoring more than 22 points per night and is now neck and neck with Evan Mobley for Rookie of the Year. He has now scored more than 30 fantasy points in six straight games and more importantly is on the floor for 31+ minutes in each of those games. Looks way too cheap on Yahoo.

Monitor the minutes and rest situation here as the Pacers are on a second night of a  back to back and Rick Carlisle love to rest his rotation. Brogdon played just under 30 minutes on Wednesday so hopefully he is a full-go but considering his up and down play over the last six games, is best left for tournaments. 

Mills was one of many Nets who smashed on Tuesday, and he played more than 43 minutes in the OT contest thanks to Brooklyn's lack of available bodies. It's the same story tonight, but now Mills is about $1,000 more expensive. Back to back games with more than 30 fantasy points should give you confidence to play him even with the salary bump. 

Maxey smashed the Heat with 40 fantasy points tonight, albeit in 41 minutes. Monitor the 76ers closely before lock to see if any players get ruled out or rested. I don't personally think that happens to Maxey, and he would benefit if any of Embiid, Harris, Curry or Green sit out. 

You'll see several Knicks on this list today because they are in the nuts pace-up spot against the Houston Rockets. The Rockets rank first in pace while New York is down at 25th on the year. For his role, Burks is just too cheap on FanDuel and Yahoo. 

Burks' new role has not impacted Rose in the last couple weeks. He is up over 33 minutes in each of the last three games, and is a lock for 25+ fantasy points per night. Same caveat as Burks that this is a massive pace up spot for the Knicks, especially the guards. 

I won't fault you if the only David Duke you know before Tuesday was a racist former politician from Louisiana. In just his third NBA game, Duke set the court on fire with 40 fantasy points. DK and Yahoo did not raise the salary enough for the minutes he will be on the floor, but FD got him where he needed to be. With as many bodies as Brooklyn will be missing, don't be afraid to deploy 4-5 Nets. 

Beal did play last night and got his customary 45 fantasy points in 36 minutes. With Spencer Dinwiddie already ruled out, I don't believe Beal will sit, but it's worth monitoring, especially against a powerhouse like Phoenix. I am likely paying down at the position tonight, as $9,000 on DK seems too much against Phoenix who is a top-five team against shooting guards.

LeVert's salary is all over the map on Thursday but so has his fantasy play as of late. He continues to play big minutes but fluctuates between 15 and 50 fantasy points on any given night. Give him a bump up if Brogdon or any other Pacers sit tonight in a very winnable game. 

I'm not sure why Curry gets a $500 salary bump on DK. His fantasy points are down from 43 one week ago to just 18 last night and he is a prime candidate for rest. 

The fastest player in pace so far in the NBA will need to be the offensive engine tonight as the only Rocket to play tonight after sitting out the first leg of a back to back. He has been up to the task lately, scoring 26+ fantasy points in his last five healthy games. If all of Kevin Porter, Jalen Green and Christian Wood are out tonight, it is going to be the Gordon/Sengun show. 

Cam Thomas was seemingly the only value Brooklyn player who did not hit 10x their salary on Tuesday, but that shouldn't cause us to waiver in our desire to play him. His roster percentage should be down after a 2-for-10 shooting night but he still played 22 minutes and had a 24% usage rate. Before the COVIDpocalypse, he produced 20 fantasy points in four of five games. 

You can piecemeal some players from other positions on DK and FD tonight, but pure small forwards that you would actually want to play are very rare on this crazy Thursday slate. Bridges is at least going to get you 35 minutes and some strong defense against Bradley Beal tonight. The usage rate is still below 15% every night, but you can count on 20 fantasy points if that's what you need in this spot. 

Could get you nine points, could get you 49. Which do you feel like tonight? Bey is often the ideal tournament play who could breakout on any given night, although with a tough matchup and Detroit being 10.5 point underdogs, I am likely not having too much exposure. 

The third member of the Brooklyn No-Names from Tuesday to crush value. He remains an ultra-elite value play on DK and Yahoo, but got a significant salary bump on FD, which is the theme of the night. Considering even in an OT game with barely enough bodies the Nets didn't to play Blake Griffin more than 22 minutes, Edwards should be guaranteed some strong run again. 

Thybulle is in play for me tonight on DK and Yahoo if Green, Curry, Harris or other 76ers wing players sit. He has done nothing for 10 games running and would simply be a mega-cheap tournament dart throw if it looks like he might get more minutes. 

On these short slates that are littered with players sitting out, you simply must roster players like Durant simply for the raw points. With back to back games over 70+ fantasy points, Durant is the best option for that tonight, despite the sticker-shock price tag. In almost all projection systems, Durant is head and shoulders above everyone else tonight. 

With Durant above and Randle below, I doubt I will have any Sabonis on this slate. He is coming off a back to back, the Pacers are massive favorites, the salary seems too high for what he can produce relative to the other expensive options, and his floor to ceiling range of 35-65 fantasy points is better suited for tournaments. 

If you watched the show LOST, you know about The Constant. Randle is the NBA's version of The Constant, someone you can rely on for 35 minutes and 40ish fantast points every night that anchors your lineup. I am going to have heavy exposure on Randle against the Rockets who provide that massive pace-up spot and who are third worst against power forwards and centers this season. 

Bump him up to all categories at this price range if Embiid, Curry, et al sit and he does not. Still, Harris has only produced more than 33 fantasy points once in his last eight games, necessitating the salary drops we see tonight on FD and Yahoo. 

With Dinwidde out, there should be some capacity for Kuzma to take on a greater offensive role, albeit in a tough macro matchup against the Suns and a rough individual matchup with Jae Crowder. Kuzma didn't  look great in 32 minutes in his return from injury last night, but he was constantly putting up 25-30 point fantasy games prior to that. Just a sage floor at a reasonable salary. 

If Christian Wood site, I like Tate a lot more because of the minutes that will be required of him. Tate has given us at least 23 fantasy points in nine of ten games, but if you're debating the position, the higher end options are more appealing. 

I can definitely see a scenario where I pair Cam Johnson with a Kevin Durant or Julius Randle in a number of lineups tonight. He has played at least 30 minutes in four of his last five games, scoring in double figures with at least four rebounds in seven straight. He looks close to a lock on Yahoo just $2 above the min salary. 

Embiid falls into the Kevin Durant category of raw points producer assuming he plays tonight after 37 minutes against the Heat last night. He is not listed on any of the most recent official team injury reports, but it is certainly something to monitor. With the Nets decimated roster, it looks as thought they would have to roll out Nic Claxton or the corpses of Blake Griffin or LaMarcus Aldridge to try and slow down Embiid tonight. 

We mentioned on the podcast that Ayton got a massive salary bump up to $8,800 on DK, but perhaps it should have been near that level for some time. We are consistently getting mid-30's in fantasy points and now we add in mid-30's in minutes as well. The Wizards should offer little resistance as a bottom-five team against centers this year. If you want to get different from Embiid and Sengun, this is the way to go. 

The Pistons have been surprisingly competent against center this year, ranking 12th in fantasy points allowed to the position. That just adds more evidence to the fact that Turner remains a GPP play. Same conditions as Sabonis: back to back, large spread, and scores between 12 and 42 in his last eight games. 

Lock. It. In. After last night's monster performance with 47 fantasy points in just 27 minutes, Sengun averages 1.24 fantasy points per minute on the season and is simply too cheap everywhere. Sengun is like finding free money on Yahoo tonight. If Christian Wood does play, it complicated matters somewhat, but the role should be secure considering how short-handed the Rockets will be. 

Griffin had a mini resurrection last game with 33 points in 30 minutes. But he hadn't hit that number all season and it was clear the Nets wanted to play other guys. You want to take a shot on DK and Yahoo? Alright, I can see it. But $6,400 on FD? No thank you. 

His minutes and fantasy points have increased each of the last four games where he finally sat at 28 fantasy points in 26 minutes against the Raptors on Tuesday. I feel Claxton is where they want the bulk of their center minutes to go, and it is just a matter of time before they get there. But for lower salary tags DK and Yahoo, this is where I would prefer to spend down if I'm not going with Sengun. But seriously, just go with Sengun.