Unlike the NASCAR Truck Series race that ran Thursday night, the Xfinity Series was able to get practice and qualifying in Thursday afternoon. The trucks certainly suffered without practice as there were far too many cautions in the first stage that really screwed with the pace of the race, but it did allow for drivers to get on different pit strategies. Admittedly I took a bit of a hit last night with my Cash Games that I couldn’t withdraw from, but we can’t finish in the green every race (as nice as that would be). 

 

We turn our attention to the Xfinity Series race on Friday night. We get 250 laps (roughly 150-175 dominator points depending on the number of cautions) and unlike the Trucks, we did see these drivers post practice and qualifying on Thursday so we know where everyone starts. We will likely need to keep an ear to the ground on Friday to see if anyone drops to the rear. Remember, it’s easy to get lapped at Martinsville. Part of the reason it didn’t happen as early last night is because there were so many cautions in the Truck race that there were plenty of drivers still on the lead lap at the end of the first stage. 35% of last night’s race was run under yellow with 11 cautions for 71 laps. That’s just annoying.

We may not be as unlucky Friday night as I have more faith in the Xfinity drivers running a more clean race, plus the track conditions should be better. I’ll be hopping in and out of Discord all day so tag me if you have any questions and let’s bounce back from last night!

Driver Pool

Ty Gibbs ($11,300; Starting P1) I can’t say I’ll have a ton of exposure to Ty. But he’s an obvious candidate for early laps led and this is one of those races where JGR can show up with the right setup and crush it. He’s won three of the last five races and prior to last week the concern with Gibbs was that he hadn’t truly dominated a race. But then he went out and won the race from the pole leading over 100 laps at Richmond. He raced here twice last year and finished P4 and P27 separately while leading 44 laps between both races. I think I might prefer him just in GPP’s this week, but I won’t fault anyone for going here in Cash Games considering that if he leads most/all of stage one and has a good finish, then he’s likely to help plenty of people to green.

Noah Gragson ($11,000; Starting P3) What’s not to love about Gragson today? He had his own problems last week at Richmond but he’s been fantastic this year. He dominated Phoenix four weeks ago leading over 100 laps in a winning effort and sure, last week was a dud because of some equipment issues. But Martinsville has been great to him during Xfinity. In three races here he’s never finished worse than third including a win last Fall where he led 153 laps. The speed was okay during practice, but he really showed up during qualifying to start on the second row. 

Josh Berry ($10,800; Starting P10) Josh Berry absolutely loves racing on short tracks. As a part-time driver with JRM last year he won this race in the Spring and led almost 100 laps and he’s coming off a top ten at Richmond. He may not be a driver that should be priced at $10,800 but DraftKings is clearly trying to bake potential laps led into their salaries. He does come with a little PD, but if you’re paying this price tag you’re expecting some dominator points from him. I do like Justin Allgaier as well as he might be among the lowest owned in this range. He’s never finished outside the top ten here, including a pair of top five finishes. He might fly under the radar.

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,500; Starting P13) I don’t like frontloading the Playbook with so many top-tier options, but truthfully when we have decent PD candidates and candidates for dominator points, I’ll plug them in regardless. If there’s one thing we can say about Allmendinger it’s that he might be the safest play on the board. Which is crazy that I don’t slap Ty Gibbs with that label since he’s won three of the last five races. But Allmendinger has finished in the top ten in every race this season and he manages to find his way to some dominator points in each race. He’s posted at least 53 points on DraftKings in three straight races and he does offer some PD this week with the possibility of getting dominator points in stages two and three. Over the last two years, he doesn’t have the greatest resume at Martinsville, but he finished 7th and 13th here last year and led 68 laps here in the Fall of 2020. Recent form is what we’re paying for and he’s once again viable in all formats. A top five with some fastest laps will help him easily hit 5X value.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. ($9,800; Starting P30) Probably the easiest chalk on the slate, especially in Cash games. Earnhardt chose Martinsville as his annual XFIN appearance and he has plenty of experience here including a win at the Cup level back in 2014. Jr. isn’t a candidate to go out and win the race, but he’s an obvious PD target and while he may not win and likely won’t get many dominators, he can pull off a solid finish. He started 30th and finished 14th last year and Richmond. He also grabbed top five finishes in his lone XFIN appearance in 2020, 2019, and 2018. I’m willing to eat the chalk in Cash Games and will find other drivers to differentiate the build.

Daniel Hemric ($9,500; Starting P9) Hemric posted the fastest overall lap on Thursday and recorded the best five-and-ten-lap averages in practice. The only reason he didn’t have the fastest longer runs is that he seemed fairly content with the car and likely wanted to let the car cool down before qualifying. And during qualifying he qualified P9 so he gets some PD on his side and is always a bit of a dark horse to get some dominator points. He finished sixth at Richmond last week and he had back-to-back third place finishes at Martinsville last year with JGR.

Sam Mayer ($8,900; Starting P21) Mayer’s car wasn’t great in either practice or qualifying. However, he does love short track racing and he has PD on his side. The equipment is still good and he’s coming off back-to-back top five finishes including a third-place finish at another short track last week in Richmond. He’s going to likely be popular, but if there was a track he could get his first win at it would be here. He grabbed a top five at Martinsville in his debut last year.

Austin Hill ($8,200; Starting P14) Hill could wind up being pretty popular in GPP’s, but I won’t complain about it. He’s priced right around the average price tag and he’s a driver who won Daytona, finished second at Atlanta, and second at COTA. Sure, those are completely different tracks to what he’ll run Friday night. However, there is some win equity here and he had speed last week at Richmond. He had an average running position of ninth but finished 18th. The resume isn’t great for Hill at the Paperclip, but in the Truck race last Fall he did finish runner-up and I like his form from Richmond a week ago.

Jeb Burton ($7,800; Starting P25) Burton continues to qualify relatively poor this season and he will start P25 for Friday night’s race. Last week at another short track he basically started dead last and finished 11th. I do think he can finish roughly 11th-15th in this car, I don’t know about any top ten upside. But still even if he moves into the top 15 and finishes there then he can be utilized in Cash games. Previously he’s finished 4th, 11th, and 37th (he wrecked in last Fall’s race with Kaulig). But this is easily the worst equipment he’s ever run in at Martinsville.

Anthony Alfredo ($7,500; Starting P16) I’m going to write up two drivers in this section, but I prefer Alfredo based on the results we’ve seen so far. I’m starting with Alfredo. We’ve seen seven Xfinity races this year and he’s returned at least 34 points in six of them. The one race he finished 37th (Phoenix) was because of a drivetrain issue before the race even started. When the car is running, it’s been locked in and he’s been giving DFS value with modest ownership. Now he might be starting right around where he finishes but if the team nails the pit strategy and has track position by the end of the race, then they could be in great shape for GPP’s. The other driver I want to mention in this range is Myatt Snider ($7,300; Starting P19). Snider offers a little more PD and comes with a bit of a discount. He’s probably in worse equipment, but he showed solid speed in the long run. The constant concern with Snider is that the finishes have not been there aside from COTA. So if you want an even bigger gamble/pivot in GPP’s you can get some exposure to Snider based on how he looked in practice. But overall, I’d rather settle on Fast Pasta.

Brandon Brown ($7,100; Starting P17) Brown falls right in the Alfredo/Snider range, but we also know what kind of a driver Brown is. He was a gem last week at Richmond getting a top ten at his home track and if he were to say he had a second home track, it might be Martinsville. The concern with Brown this week is that the finishes at the Paperclip have been brutal. He has just one top 20 finish here in three races and he wrecked out of last Fall’s race. But we know the upside he has if he runs clean. He finished eighth last week at Richmond and 13th at Phoenix. He also finished third at Phoenix last Spring and eighth at Richmond in 2021 as well. So while Martinsville has been a puzzle for him, I still think he has upside at this style of track.

Parker Retzlaff ($7,000; Starting P20) I told myself in Discord last week that I wasn’t going to sleep on Retzlaff anymore. He’s still very young and very green, but he’s looked like he belongs in this series. At Phoenix he went out and qualified P6 but a fuel pump issue ended his day early. Last week he qualified P10 at Richmond and that’s exactly where he finished. Now we get him starting P20 so I like the potential upside for him to move up and emerge as a decent value play. But he doesn’t have any experience at Martinsville so of course I do worry about him being bullied for track position. But he’s performed pretty well in a small sample size on shorter, flat tracks and I think he’s worthy of getting into our GPP lineups.

Jade Buford ($6,400; Starting P31) Take a deep breath in… And exhale that big sigh because I cannot quit Jade Buford. His finishes have been absolutely horrendous this year. I’ve written him up way too much to see him blow up right in front of my eyes. He was a value all of last season and so far this year he has just two finishes in the top 25. I fully understand why you may not want to go here. But the price tag is still affordable and he offers a lot of PD on Sunday even if he falls a lap down. In both races here a year ago he finished in the top 20 and if he does that again this week then he’s hitting value. But I am losing confidence in him on a weekly basis. For whatever reason, Derek Griffith is more expensive (but he is offering more PD). I wanted to include Griffith in the Playbook, but I just want to see more from him first. I like the play and we know the equipment is pretty decent. Better drivers have driven it inside the top 15. I just hope he can get inside the top 20-25.

Mason Massey ($6,300; Starting P26) Do we dare risk our luck with Massey once again? I am. He paid off last week and I could see him doing it again. The DGM equipment is arguably the best he’s ever been in, but that’s not saying very much. He’s been a decent target of PD, but we are slowly seeing the price tag creep up. He started P25 and finished 17th last week and gained eight spots of PD at Phoenix as well. This also looks to be his first time racing Martinsville in the Xfinity Series so we may need to temper expectations a little bit. He’s not a lock for Cash games, but if he’s the best option for you in this range, I don’t hate it.

Matt Mills ($4,900; Starting P37) Statistically, this is one of his worst tracks and BJ McLeod equipment isn’t exactly the kind of stuff I want to invest heavily in for DFS especially at a short track for attrition. However, from a lineup construction standpoint I don’t hate the play from the fact that the only person starting worse than him is technically Natalie Decker. Even if Massey finishes dead last somehow, he’s getting you two points on DraftKings. He cannot give you negative points this week and even if he somehow can just survive and finish 29th he’s getting you 4X value. We normally set the bar much higher for drivers when we dip this low, but he barely needs a top 30 to be useful and he cannot get negative points for us. Does that mean we load up on him as our only value play? Absolutely not. We don’t want to settle for two points, but that’s literally his worst-case scenario.

Other Value Options To Consider: I’ll try (and fail) to be brief with some of these drivers because the value options are very tough to read this week. I’ll start with Shane Lee. I will throw him into some GPP’s, but something weird seems to have happened with the 35-car for Gase Emerling Racing. The Driver Averages page says that through the first six races the car was a Toyota and had three finishes in the top 20. Last week it was a Ford (can’t really explain why) and it looked awful at Richmond. This week it’s once again a Ford so I have my suspicions. I may only get two or three shares to Lee, but that car could show up looking like garbage again. I might get light exposure to David Starr strictly based on what he did last week at Richmond. The equipment isn’t great, but he does offer PD and they had a good setup a week ago. Howie Disavino is a guy I’m throwing into some GPP’s. Nobody is going to play him and he is in Alpha Prime Equipment. We’ve seen some good and bad performances from that team and with Ryan Ellis not making the race, HD3 is a viable low-owned option in GPP’s given that most people probably assume he’s starting too high. And that could be true, but I’ll get two or three shares of him in my Happy Hour builds. Lastly I’ll likely shoot myself in the foot with Ryan Vargas once again this week. That kid just has bad luck, but the JD Motorsports equipment is still okay. He likely finishes a few laps down, but he starts far enough back that I don’t hate his chance to get 20-25 points on DraftKings.

Example Lineups

Example Lineups will be posted separately later this afternoon.

 

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