NASCAR heads to Talladega this weekend! After three straight weeks of short tracking racing, we get to see the Xfinity and Cup Series head back to a superspeedway for the second (or third, depending on your opinion of Atlanta) plate race of the 2022 NASCAR season. These races tend to lend themselves to a lot of variance and we can almost throw dominator points out the window. But the Ag-Pro 300 is going to be a bit of a nostalgic race for many NASCAR fans. Jeffrey Earnhardt, the late Dale Earnhardt’s grandson, will be driving the 3-car prepped by Richard Childress Racing and Larry McReynolds (one of Dale Earnhardt’s former crew chiefs) is going to be the crew chief for this car. It marks McReynolds’ first time working as a crew chief in 22 years, and wouldn’t you know it? The team went out and qualified on the pole. If this were any other race with this car being on the pole, Earnhardt would absolutely be worth getting exposure to. But we know the nature of superspeedway racing. The laps led points could be there if we see a relatively tame race. However, this style of pack racing and drafting breeds chaos and there simply isn’t a lot of upside from the pole. The chance Earnhardt is optimal isn’t zero, but it is slim.
Talladega Superspeedway is a massive 2.66-mile tri-oval with roughly 33-degree banking in the turns. It’s the biggest track on the schedule and it’s incredibly wide. I’ve had the privilege of visiting this track and it’s truly a sight to behold in person. Superspeedway racing isn’t my favorite for DFS. The scoring is all over the place given the nature of pack racing and being in the draft. Part of the DFS strategy also comes down to simply differentiating your lineup and hoping you nail six drivers that avoid the Big One and finish in the top 10-15, including the winner. Normally I make three lineups and call it a day for this style of racing. I’m going to be a bit more adventurous this weekend and throw 20 lineups into the Slingshot for Xfinity and Chrome Horn for the Cup Series. I like to think I have a better feel for lineup construction, but truly anything can happen here and NOBODY is off the table. I know I said I wasn’t playing Earnhardt up above, but since superspeedways level the playing field, everyone has a chance to win.
Matt and I discussed on the podcast the theory of lineup construction and if you need a visual, I highly suggest viewing this tweet from Ryan Stevens (@HAHNY0L0 on Twitter, those are zeroes in his handle by the way):
Now keep in mind this is for the Cup Series, but I’m still applying the same lineup construction strategies for the Xfinity race as well. Ryan tweets incredibly useful NASCAR DFS data throughout the week leading up to all the races so he’s definitely worth a follow. But this tweet in particular perfectly encapsulates what we mean by lineups construction. Most of my lineups won’t have anyone starting in the top ten, but some will. I’ll mostly be looking at roughly two drivers starting in the top 20, mixing in one or two guys starting between P20 and P30, and then the remainder of your lineup can be other PD targets outside the top 30 or you can try to find some leverage plays. And you can realistically leave anywhere from $3,000-$10,000 on the table. Possibly more!
I’m a huge leverage guy in NASCAR DFS. I’ve said it plenty of times, I tend to consider ownership over projections, especially for superspeedway races because these races are so unpredictable. Last Fall we saw Tate Fogleman win the Truck Series race here, Brandon Brown win the Xfinity race, and Bubba Wallace win the Cup race. They each scored their respective first win in their series. If you parlayed those three drivers to each win with a $20 bet, you would’ve made about $2 million. Embrace the chaos and you should absolutely play within your means this weekend. It’s not a week to go crazy and risk losing your bankroll.
Again, below is just a driver pool of drivers with strong superspeedway resumes or they are in starting spots that are friendly for building lineups. This does not mean they’re safe from a wreck. Nor does it mean drivers not mentioned are not in play. Think about the construction of your lineup and the theory behind your builds and don’t go over 25-30% exposure on any one particular driver.
Driver Pool
Noah Gragson ($10,300; Starting P19) In six career superspeedway races, we’ve seen Gragson finish 11th or better five times. His worst finish came last Fall where he wrecked and finished 30th. He finished third at Daytona earlier this year and he has the luxury of offering a little PD for a race where we won’t be too restricted due to DraftKings’ pricing. He’s cooled off after his hot start to the season. He didn’t fare well in the short track portion of the Spring schedule, but he’s certainly a fine play from a DFS perspective this week. Ownership will likely be high so remember to keep your own exposure in check.
Josh Berry ($10,100; Starting P16) We don’t typically think of Berry as a great plate racer. In four career races between Daytona and Talladega, his best finish was ninth last Fall here. Otherwise, he has just one other top 20 finish. Historically this is the lowest he’s ever started in the field and I don’t hate him as a pivot off Gragson who will be higher owned since he offers a little more PD and casual DFS players will flock to his safer resume.
A.J. Allmendinger ($9,700; Starting P13) I’m a little surprised we’re getting such a discount on Allmendinger today. Can anything happen here? Yes. Can he wreck? Yes. Can he also win this race? Yes. I know Talladega is a different beast and it all boils down to avoiding the Big One, but Allmendinger has been consistent and steady this year. He’s finished in the top ten in every single race and we know Kaulig sets their cars up well for superspeedways. Dinger posted the worst qualifying time out of his entire team, but he has so much experience that you just don’t typically find in this series. Dinger finished third here last year, but he has wrecked in two of four races with Kaulig at Talladega. He was also runner-up at this year’s race in Daytona.
Brandon Jones ($9,000; Starting P15) Jones comes with a ton of variance even when he isn’t racing at a superspeedway. He can certainly go out and win a race, as we saw two weeks ago, or he can wreck when he’s the most obvious chalk play. That’s just who he is. For a race like Talladega, we can lean into that variance a bit. Jones offers a little PD and sure he starts in a fairly risky spot in the middle of the pack. He finished second in this race last Fall and has the upside to win, but at this price tag a strong finish would still make him optimal and I’m not entirely convinced there will be significant ownership on him.
Riley Herbst ($8,500; Starting P20) Herbst, like Jones, can be a frustrating DFS play. But truthfully, he’s not having a terrible season. Has every race been filled with rainbows and unicorns for him? No, but he’s finished sixth or better in half the races this year and that includes a fourth-place finish at Daytona. He finished fourth here a year ago, but in his other three races at Dega he wrecked out. The starting spot is pretty friendly despite starting in the middle of the field.
Jeb Burton ($8,400; Starting P22) Burton obviously took an equipment downgrade for 2022 after being a full-time driver with Kaulig Racing a year ago. The equipment isn’t really a concern today unless for some reason he can’t fire the damn car up. Burton won this race a year ago with Kaulig and finished seventh in the Fall. He also finished third with JR Motorsports in the Fall of 2020. At Daytona he has three top five finishes in six races. In ten career superspeedway races his worst finish is 25th and that includes some races where he’s wrecked. That tells me that he is capable of staying clean and responsibly surviving the first couple stages to be in the running later on.
Myatt Snider ($7,900; Starting P31) Snider starts outside the top 30 in the 31-car for Jordan Anderson Racing. There is a bit of a narrative here as Jordan Anderson got married last week and what better gift could Snider give his car’s owner than a win or at the very least, a solid finish? Snider hasn’t had the best season in this car, but Anderson himself is a pretty solid plater racer, especially in the Truck Series. Snider has three top ten finishes in eight career superspeedway races and a lot of DFS players will flock to him as strictly a PD play.
Brett Moffit ($7,700; Starting P18) I cannot quit this guy. I know he’s not in the best equipment, but that shouldn’t matter this weekend. So far this year he’s either gone backward from where he’s qualified or he finishes about where he qualifies. But I’m liking the play here from a leverage perspective. I don’t think ownership will be heavy and if he stays clean then he’s a great play. He finished second at Daytona a year ago and he has a couple top 15 finishes at Dega. And even dating back to his time in the Truck Series, he had a couple top ten finishes here. This is mostly just a gut play this week.
Ryan Sieg ($7,400; Starting P10) I will have other leverage plays listed at the bottom because I know I haven’t discussed too many drivers starting in the top 15. But I do like Sieg as a leverage play. I don’t think too many will target him starting in the top ten since he basically needs to finish in the top ten to have a shot at being optimal. If you take away the race where Ty Gibbs wrecked Sieg early on (and then Sieg wrecked himself later in an attempt to wreck Gibbs), Sieg is up there with A.J. Allmendinger in terms of consistent finishes this year. If you eliminate that one outlier that was arguably out of Sieg’s control he’s finished 9th, 9th, 11th, 10th, 11th, 10th, and 8th so I don’t think it’s out of the question to say he’s having a fairly consistent year. In seven races at Dega since 2017, Sieg has finished 11th, 5th, 2nd, 30th, 16th, 6th, and 12th. He also has some top ten finishes at Daytona as well. If making 20 lineups, I wouldn’t play him in more than four builds. On paper, he’s not the best play because of the starting spot. But sometimes we can just shred the paper and just live a little.
Brandon Brown ($7,300; Starting P17) I would be an idiot if I didn’t mention last Fall’s Dega winner. Brown may have won the race due to NASCAR officials essentially shortening the race due to darkness. But the resume checks out. In five races here he’s finish 15th or better including three straight top ten finishes. He also has four top ten finishes in his last six Daytona races as well. The resume checks out. The starting spot is still risky and he could still wreck of course, but he’s proven to be a very good plate racer.
Chandler Smith ($6,800; Starting P30) Smith will make his Xfinity Series debut, which could be a bit of a signal to a move up for him next year? Who knows! But I’m intrigued. He is one of the better drivers in the Truck Series with Kyle Busch Motorsports, although he tends to fly under the radar most weeks. The price is incredibly helpful and the starting spot is great. I do think ownership might be a little high, but I think this is chalk we can eat. Smith only has four superspeedway races under his belt in the Truck Series. He’s finished 21st and 9th at Daytona while finishing 19th and 3rd at Talladega. A finish of 20th would return 33 points on DraftKings and he could certainly finish better than that. Ryan Truex pushed this car to a 12th place finish at Daytona earlier this year and even Colin Garrett got a top 15 out of this car a year ago at Dega.
Kyle Sieg ($6,600; Starting P37) He’s starting on the back row and can’t get you negative points. For that reason alone I think you can safely plug him into your Cash lineups if you’re playing that format this weekend. I won’t say that Ryan’s success and consistency will necessarily rub off on Kyle, but Kyle did start P36 at Daytona and finished 21st.
JJ Yeley ($6,500; Starting P28) I do really like JJ Yeley in this range as a pivot off Sieg who could be popular. Yeley is $100 cheaper but starts ten spots ahead of Sieg. Yeley does thrive on these superspeedway/drafting races. Since 2014, in seven races at Talladega, he has an average finish of 10.14, which is incredible. He’s finished in the top 18 in six straight races at Daytona and even in last month’s Atlanta race (which featured more drafting because of the track’s reconfiguration) Yeley finished 11th. I think this is a guy you can max out your ownership at 30% in GPP’s.
Joey Gase ($5,900; Starting P36) Starting in the second-to-last row we get Joey Gase. We can’t expect too much from Gase. However, a top 20 finish isn’t out of the question and at this price tag and from where he’s starting his path to value seems reasonable. He drove Tim Means’ 52-car to a top 15 last Fall at Talladega.
Ryan Ellis ($5,400; Starting… Dead Last) He literally can’t lose you any PD points. If there’s a big wreck early on ahead of him then he moves up if he avoids it. I’m still optimistic this new Alpha Prime team can field decent cars. Fortunately, equipment doesn’t matter this week. Ellis has run two races this year and he started P35 in both and he finished 16th and 13th respectively. He’s a guy that should be popular and heavily owned. I just don’t think he’ll come with significantly heavy ownership, but you can lock him and Sieg into your Cash lineup since mostly everyone else will go that route as well and you can find other ways to differentiate your Cash build if you need to.
Other Drivers To Consider: For the most part I’ve touched on the safer PD plays that aren’t too risky. But if you want to take down a GPP you need to get a driver or two in your lineup that might be starting a little too high. So I’m fine mixing in Daniel Hemric or Landon Cassill as part of Kaulig mini-stacks with Allmendinger. I don’t think I’ll be playing Hemric and Cassill together though. Richard Childress Racing delivered fast cars this weekend. Jeffrey Earnhardt, Austin Hill, and Sheldon Creed all qualified in the top four along with Ty Gibbs. If I had to pick one it would probably be Hill since he won Daytona, but I think Creed might be the biggest dark horse in the top four since more exposure should land on Gibbs and Hill. I’m going to lightly play Justin Allgaier, but I might land on more exposure to Sam Mayer. Mayer doesn’t have a ton of superspeedway success. And in the races he has run, he hasn’t finished well. Again, I will be playing him since ownership shouldn’t be too high. Jade Buford’s rough start to the season might be starting to have repercussions as Kaz Grala will run the 48-car this weekend. Scott Borchetta recently commented on Big Machine’s partnership with RCR and the determination to run up front so Grala (who qualified P8) will run in Buford’s place on Saturday for Dega and next week at Dover. To his credit, Grala finished 6th here with Kaulig Racing in the Cup Series race a year ago. He also moved up from P35 to finish 26th in the Daytona 500. Starting P8 relegates him to large-field GPP’s only and if he finishes well then he could certainly be optimal.
Example Lineups
The Example Lineups will be posted separately later this afternoon.