It took five days but we finally got a winner at THE NORTHERN TRUST on Monday evening when Tony Finau ousted Cameron Smith in a playoff. This marked the 14 consecutive week on the PGA Tour where the eventual winner trailed after each of the first three rounds. A huge win for Finau, only the second of his career, who had failed so many times on Sunday’s to earn a victory (8 runner ups and 39 Top 10 finishes between his two wins), so it took a Monday for him to get the job done. Tony is on top of the FedEx Cup standings with Jon Rahm nipping at his heels as Collin Morikawa dropped with his missed cut at THE NORTHERN TRUST. It could get quite interesting as we head to the second tournament of these playoffs, the BMW Championship.
Jon Rahm won the 2020 BMW Championship in a playoff over Dustin Johnson. He and the 68 other guys in the Top 70 of the FedEx Cup Playoff standings head to Baltimore for the first time since 1962 for the second to last event of the 2020-2021 PGA Tour season. Caves Valley Golf Club plays host to the 2021 BMW Championship, it opened in 1991 and is a par 72 that stretches out 7,542 yards. It was renovated for these pros with more length, freshly restored bunkers, and additional rough added. Depending on how long the rough will be, the main defense on this course are the bunkers. There is little to no course history to go off of this week but Brian Harman, Billy Horschel, Dustin Johnson, Chris Kirk, Luke List and Webb Simpson all played on the 2007 Palmer Cup team at Caves. It has changed a lot since that event though. I’ll be focusing my picks on recent form and course fit.
This is the final chance for players to get into the Tour Championship last week in East Lake. The Top 30 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings will get invited to participate and have a chance at the $15 million dollar prize to the winner. Kevin Kisner, Keegan Bradley, Si Woo Kim, Cameron Tringale, Cam Davis, Brian Harman, Alex Noren, Sergio Garcia, Shane Lowry, Paul Casey, and Webb Simpson are all players sitting on the outside looking into the field as they tee it up this weekend in Charm City. All of those players can get into the field of 30 next week especially when you look at some of the jumps that players have made over the last couple weeks. Just look at guys who played their way into the BMW field after their performance at THE NORTHERN TRUST. Tom Hoge from 108 to 48, Keith Mitchell from 101 to 63, Alex Noren from 91 to 43, Erik van Rooyen from 76 to 45 and Harold Varner pulled it off going from 72 to 55. We also saw a few guys play their way out of the BMW field like Matt Wolff, Matt Fitzpatrick, Tyrrell Hatton, Martin Laird and Troy Merritt. It’ll be a fight to the finish this weekend and I can’t wait to check this course out.
Patrick Reed has announced that he’s withdrawing from the BMW Championship as he deals with bilateral pneumonia. We wish him well.
It is typical August weather in Baltimore, Maryland, hot and humid. The temps are going to be in the low 90s throughout the weekend with chance of afternoon showers. I live only about an hour from this course and I can you, it is going to be brutal out there. I feel like the morning players will have the advantage both days because they won’t deal with as much heat or the afternoon storms that come from all that humidity.
The playbooks will slowly shrink as we move into the playoffs over the next few weeks. The Tour Championship will just be core plays that week because of the small field that will participate.
ONE & DONE PICK: Justin Thomas
Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | Draft % (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) | Draft % (Click to sort ascending) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | Jon Rahm | 11700 | 22.3% | 12000 | 37.0% |
Finished 3rd last week at THE NORTHERN TRUST, currently sits 2nd in the FedEx Cup Standings. We all know the talent that Jon Rahm brings to the course every single time he tees the ball up. Before last week, he had 3rd place finishes at the Open Championship, a 7th at the Scottish Open and victory at the U.S. Open. As I said last week, don’t overthink it, he should be owned despite his cost. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
| G | Justin Thomas | 10600 | 21.5% | 11600 | 29.6% |
This is the type of course I love Justin Thomas on because of his shot making and birdie making ability. Ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 12th in Birdie Average and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. I also liked what I saw from him last weekend at THE NORTHERN TRUST finishing 4th. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
| G | Brooks Koepka | 10200 | 4.4% | 11300 | 14.8% |
It’s coming down to the wire and no one I trust more than Brooks. We always talk about his ability to step up on the biggest stages. He sits 15th right now in the FedEx Cup standings, 2000 points to the winner of this event which would put him in the Top 3 heading into the Tour Championship. He has the ability to torch this course with his Top 10 Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Off the Tee. I’d start my lineups with Brooks. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
| G | Tony Finau | 9800 | 14.2% | 11000 | 14.4% |
He’ll be crazy high owned this weekend coming off of his victory at THE NORTHERN TRUST but I’ll jump at it his price tag. Yea the win is nice but he fits the profile for this course ranking Top 15 in both Strokes Gained Around the Green and Tee to Green. He’s also Top 30 in Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Approach. He may not win again but I definitely believe he’ll be Top 10 again. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
| G | Cameron Smith | 9500 | 11.9% | 10900 | 18.2% |
The putter has been amazing and what lifted him to the playoff last week against Tony Finau. He ranks 6th in Strokes Gained Putting for the season. While he lost, he still vaulted to 3rd in the FedEx Cup standings and very much in the hunt for that $15 Million dollars. The Driver is the only thing that scares me a bit with him this week because the fairways were narrowed by 25 yards and if this rough is punishing, it could be a long week. I still like him because he never backs down and he comes into Caves ranked 16th in Strokes Gained Total. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
| G | Patrick Cantlay | 9200 | 12.8% | 10700 | 17.9% |
It’s been an uneven year for Cantlay but the talent is there and has flashed a bunch highlighted by his win at the Memorial. He is more than capable of going out there and running away with this tournament. The 10th ranked player in the world is strong throughout his bag ranking Top 10 in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Around the Green and Total. He’s also 13th Off the Tee and 31st in Approach. The game is there but will he put it together for all four rounds. He is coming off an 11th place last week at THE NORTHERN TRUST and is right in the mix for the $15 Million sitting at 4th in the standings. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
| G | Corey Conners | 8600 | 23.1% | 9600 | 22.7% |
The model of consistency throughout the 2020-2021 PGA Tour season. Since October of 2020, he’s missed just two cuts with 15 Top 20 finishes over that time span. His Top 8 finish at last week’s NORTHERN TRUST vaulted him to 20th in the FedEx Cup standings and into the field at the Tour Championship as of now. I’ve spoken at length about his premiere ball striking skills but on and around the greens can be a struggle at times. If he could ever get his putting into the Top 50 on Tour, he’d be unstoppable. Despite his putting woes, he still Top 10 in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Approach and Tee to Green. Play the Canadian without fear this weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
| G | Scottie Scheffler | 8900 | 13.0% | 10400 | 15.4% |
Scottie has some work to do this weekend if he wants to get into the mix for the $15 Million ranking 24th in the FedEx Cup Standings. He is also in danger of falling out of the Top 30 with a bad finish this weekend. In his last six starts, he’s got 4 Top 15 finishes but also 2 finishes outside the Top 40 including last week at THE NORTHERN TRUST. I like his fit at Caves better because he can feature his best club, the driver especially with all these drivable par 4s. He ranks Top 35 on Tour in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Tee to Green, Total and Around the Green. I think he’s a terrific value this weekend and will make up the mid tier in a lot of my lineups. Game Type: GPP | |||||
| G | Harris English | 8400 | 6.9% | 9700 | 11.7% |
He may have cooled a bit with his 31st place finish at THE NORTHERN TRUST but still has three Top 5 finishes in his last five starts including the U.S. Open, the Travelers and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. That puts him 8th in FedEx Cup Standings and within striking distance of that $15 Million dollars. I’m really appreciating his slow start to the 2021 calendar year because his price has been great over the summer when he started to heat up. While he doesn’t rank up with the best ball strikers, he specializes around the greens ranking 28th and even better on the green ranking 11th in putting which basically gives him a chance every week out on the tour. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
| G | Sungjae Im | 8000 | 5.6% | 9200 | 1.7% |
Sungjae is in a similar place as Scottie Scheffler sitting at 25th in the FedEx Cup Standings. He needs a good finish to stay in the Top 30 field for the Tour Championship and to give himself even an outside chance of the $15 Million. He looked solid last week at THE NORTHERN TRUST finishing 16th. We know Im has the ball striking skills that rivals anyone in the world but can he keep it together for four rounds when it comes down to it. He ranks 16th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 27th in Greens in Regulation, and 43rd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. I want a guy with his back against the wall this weekend. Game Type: GPP | |||||
| G | Russell Henley | 7800 | 3.3% | 9100 | 2.5% |
After last week’s finish of 56th at THE NORTHERN TRUST, Russell has got to take it to another level to make the Tour Championship field. Prior to that he had 4 Top 20s in his last 5 starts. We know his skills are second to none with his irons ranking 4th in Strokes Gained Approach, 18th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 19th in Greens in Regulation. We’ve seen him step on the biggest stage at the U.S. Open, have to believe he can do it again this weekend. Game Type: GPP | |||||
| G | Brian Harman | 7300 | 3.6% | 8300 | 4.5% |
Yes, he’s struggled over his last six starts with only one Top 20 finish at the Open Championship. I’m not going to hold it against him this week because he’s one of the few guys in the field who has seen and played on this course before. He can get into the Top 30 for next week’s Tour Championship with a solid finish at the BMW. Harman ranks Top 25 in Strokes Gained Around the Green and Putting for the season. I spoke about the bunkers at Caves being the main defense, he ranks 22nd in sand saves. He makes for a good value and likely under owned this weekend. Game Type: GPP | |||||
| G | Cameron Davis | 6900 | 4.3% | 7700 | 5.7% |
Davis currently sits 36th in the FedEx Cup Standings after last week’s 31st place finish at THE NORTHERN TRUST. He will get a chance as well to feature his best weapon, the driver this week at Caves. 1st in Eagles, 19th in Driving Distance, 21st in Birdie Average, and 30th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee. He won a month ago at the Rocket Mortgage. The price tag combined with his upside this weekend makes for a really tasty combo. Game Type: GPP | |||||
| G | Talor Gooch | 6200 | 3.5% | 7400 | 3.6% |
This is the nothing to lose play. He just got into the field sitting at 67th in the FedEx Cup Standings. Gooch basically needs a Top 3 finish to get into next weekend’s field. He sits 28th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 49th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 53rd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green heading into this weekend. He’s made the cut in 14 of his last 16 starts, and while there is no cut this weekend, it does show consistency in his game this season. Gooch has the game to complete on most any course. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
| G | Keith Mitchell | 6500 | 22.3% | 7300 | 7.6% |
This may be a trendy pick this weekend after his 8th place finish last weekend but it’s his second Top 10 finish in last three starts. He’s another player who thrives with his driver and ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 24th in Driving Distance. Mitchell made one of the biggest jumps in the FedEx Cup Standings last week to get into the field this weekend and why not take a shot on a hot hand making another move. Game Type: GPP | |||||
G | Jon Rahm, G | 11700 | 12000 | ||
Finished 3rd last week at THE NORTHERN TRUST, currently sits 2nd in the FedEx Cup Standings. We all know the talent that Jon Rahm brings to the course every single time he tees the ball up. Before last week, he had 3rd place finishes at the Open Championship, a 7th at the Scottish Open and victory at the U.S. Open. As I said last week, don’t overthink it, he should be owned despite his cost. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 10600 | 11600 | |||
This is the type of course I love Justin Thomas on because of his shot making and birdie making ability. Ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 12th in Birdie Average and 22nd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green. I also liked what I saw from him last weekend at THE NORTHERN TRUST finishing 4th. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 10200 | 11300 | |||
It’s coming down to the wire and no one I trust more than Brooks. We always talk about his ability to step up on the biggest stages. He sits 15th right now in the FedEx Cup standings, 2000 points to the winner of this event which would put him in the Top 3 heading into the Tour Championship. He has the ability to torch this course with his Top 10 Strokes Gained Tee to Green and Off the Tee. I’d start my lineups with Brooks. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Tony Finau, G | 9800 | 11000 | ||
He’ll be crazy high owned this weekend coming off of his victory at THE NORTHERN TRUST but I’ll jump at it his price tag. Yea the win is nice but he fits the profile for this course ranking Top 15 in both Strokes Gained Around the Green and Tee to Green. He’s also Top 30 in Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Approach. He may not win again but I definitely believe he’ll be Top 10 again. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 9500 | 10900 | |||
The putter has been amazing and what lifted him to the playoff last week against Tony Finau. He ranks 6th in Strokes Gained Putting for the season. While he lost, he still vaulted to 3rd in the FedEx Cup standings and very much in the hunt for that $15 Million dollars. The Driver is the only thing that scares me a bit with him this week because the fairways were narrowed by 25 yards and if this rough is punishing, it could be a long week. I still like him because he never backs down and he comes into Caves ranked 16th in Strokes Gained Total. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 9200 | 10700 | |||
It’s been an uneven year for Cantlay but the talent is there and has flashed a bunch highlighted by his win at the Memorial. He is more than capable of going out there and running away with this tournament. The 10th ranked player in the world is strong throughout his bag ranking Top 10 in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, Around the Green and Total. He’s also 13th Off the Tee and 31st in Approach. The game is there but will he put it together for all four rounds. He is coming off an 11th place last week at THE NORTHERN TRUST and is right in the mix for the $15 Million sitting at 4th in the standings. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 8600 | 9600 | |||
The model of consistency throughout the 2020-2021 PGA Tour season. Since October of 2020, he’s missed just two cuts with 15 Top 20 finishes over that time span. His Top 8 finish at last week’s NORTHERN TRUST vaulted him to 20th in the FedEx Cup standings and into the field at the Tour Championship as of now. I’ve spoken at length about his premiere ball striking skills but on and around the greens can be a struggle at times. If he could ever get his putting into the Top 50 on Tour, he’d be unstoppable. Despite his putting woes, he still Top 10 in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Approach and Tee to Green. Play the Canadian without fear this weekend. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 8900 | 10400 | |||
Scottie has some work to do this weekend if he wants to get into the mix for the $15 Million ranking 24th in the FedEx Cup Standings. He is also in danger of falling out of the Top 30 with a bad finish this weekend. In his last six starts, he’s got 4 Top 15 finishes but also 2 finishes outside the Top 40 including last week at THE NORTHERN TRUST. I like his fit at Caves better because he can feature his best club, the driver especially with all these drivable par 4s. He ranks Top 35 on Tour in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, Tee to Green, Total and Around the Green. I think he’s a terrific value this weekend and will make up the mid tier in a lot of my lineups. Game Type: GPP | |||||
G | 8400 | 9700 | |||
He may have cooled a bit with his 31st place finish at THE NORTHERN TRUST but still has three Top 5 finishes in his last five starts including the U.S. Open, the Travelers and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude. That puts him 8th in FedEx Cup Standings and within striking distance of that $15 Million dollars. I’m really appreciating his slow start to the 2021 calendar year because his price has been great over the summer when he started to heat up. While he doesn’t rank up with the best ball strikers, he specializes around the greens ranking 28th and even better on the green ranking 11th in putting which basically gives him a chance every week out on the tour. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | Sungjae Im, G | 8000 | 9200 | ||
Sungjae is in a similar place as Scottie Scheffler sitting at 25th in the FedEx Cup Standings. He needs a good finish to stay in the Top 30 field for the Tour Championship and to give himself even an outside chance of the $15 Million. He looked solid last week at THE NORTHERN TRUST finishing 16th. We know Im has the ball striking skills that rivals anyone in the world but can he keep it together for four rounds when it comes down to it. He ranks 16th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 27th in Greens in Regulation, and 43rd in Strokes Gained Tee to Green. I want a guy with his back against the wall this weekend. Game Type: GPP | |||||
G | 7800 | 9100 | |||
After last week’s finish of 56th at THE NORTHERN TRUST, Russell has got to take it to another level to make the Tour Championship field. Prior to that he had 4 Top 20s in his last 5 starts. We know his skills are second to none with his irons ranking 4th in Strokes Gained Approach, 18th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 19th in Greens in Regulation. We’ve seen him step on the biggest stage at the U.S. Open, have to believe he can do it again this weekend. Game Type: GPP | |||||
G | Brian Harman, G | 7300 | 8300 | ||
Yes, he’s struggled over his last six starts with only one Top 20 finish at the Open Championship. I’m not going to hold it against him this week because he’s one of the few guys in the field who has seen and played on this course before. He can get into the Top 30 for next week’s Tour Championship with a solid finish at the BMW. Harman ranks Top 25 in Strokes Gained Around the Green and Putting for the season. I spoke about the bunkers at Caves being the main defense, he ranks 22nd in sand saves. He makes for a good value and likely under owned this weekend. Game Type: GPP | |||||
G | 6900 | 7700 | |||
Davis currently sits 36th in the FedEx Cup Standings after last week’s 31st place finish at THE NORTHERN TRUST. He will get a chance as well to feature his best weapon, the driver this week at Caves. 1st in Eagles, 19th in Driving Distance, 21st in Birdie Average, and 30th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee. He won a month ago at the Rocket Mortgage. The price tag combined with his upside this weekend makes for a really tasty combo. Game Type: GPP | |||||
G | Talor Gooch, G | 6200 | 7400 | ||
This is the nothing to lose play. He just got into the field sitting at 67th in the FedEx Cup Standings. Gooch basically needs a Top 3 finish to get into next weekend’s field. He sits 28th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 49th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 53rd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green heading into this weekend. He’s made the cut in 14 of his last 16 starts, and while there is no cut this weekend, it does show consistency in his game this season. Gooch has the game to complete on most any course. Game Type: CASH & GPP | |||||
G | 6500 | 7300 | |||
This may be a trendy pick this weekend after his 8th place finish last weekend but it’s his second Top 10 finish in last three starts. He’s another player who thrives with his driver and ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 24th in Driving Distance. Mitchell made one of the biggest jumps in the FedEx Cup Standings last week to get into the field this weekend and why not take a shot on a hot hand making another move. Game Type: GPP | |||||