PGA DFS Playbook: Butterfield Bermuda Championship

We haven’t seen Fitzpatrick on the PGA Tour since the Northern Trust but he’s still been active throughout the off-season.  After missing the cut at the Italian Open, he finished Top 10 at the BMW PGA Championship and won at the Andalucia Masters.  He also participated in the Ryder Cup.  You know what you get when you roster Fitzpatrick, straight drives and superior putting.  He’s probably the best overall player in the field and a worthwhile pay up in my mind.  

Power came on strong at the end of the 2020-2021 PGA Tour season.  He had three straight Top 10 finishes in July including his first PGA Tour win at the Barbasol.  Power finished Top 25 in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, Top 40 in Strokes Gained: Approach and Greens in Regulation last season.  He made the cut last year and finished inside the Top 40.  I tend to lean towards players with wind experience and being from Ireland, he knows the ways.  Power has been finding the fairway consistently, and if that continues I see him improving on last year’s performance. 

A fantastic play down the stretch of the 2020-2021 PGA DFS season.  Mito played in six events from the start of July through the middle of August and made the cut in four of them with 2 Top 10 finishes.  He’s started 3/3 cuts made this season with a Top 3 finish at the Fortinet.  There are guys who play all season on the PGA Tour and don’t score one Top 10, so that’s a solid start.  He got that opportunity at the end of the season because of the PGA Tour rule that if you win three events on the Korn Ferry Tour, you get an automatic promotion.  He ranked Top 10 in Total Driving and Scoring Average, also Top 20 in Greens in Regulation and Birdie Average. 

It has been a nice turn around for Danny over the last 12-18 months.  He’s playing much more consistent golf and I think he’s a safe play most weekends.  He won the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship at the end of September and finished 21st at the Shriners in early October.  Danny’s another guy who knows how to play golf on an island coastline being from England.  He currently ranks Top 50 in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, Total, and Off The Tee.  He also ranks Top 5 Strokes Gained: Around the Green.  This price tag for a player of his talent is a pretty good value.   

Rodgers has two Top 10 finishes and a Top 15 over his last six starts.  We all know that Rodgers excels in two areas, driving and putting which has served him well in Bermuda as he made the cut at this event last year.  The key will be if he can keep the ball on the fairway, his distance will give him an edge on the field.  Normally, I would not want to pay 9K for Rodgers but when you look at this field, it's about where he should be priced.   

Despite missing the cut at the Shriners after his Top 10 at the Sanderson, I like him a lot this weekend.  He’s shown a lot of upside early on this season ranking 54th or better in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Approach, Around the Green, Tee to Green and Total.  If he can get the putter going this weekend, we may see some fireworks from this 23-year-old out of Pepperdine.  The price tag may be high but he could be a tournament winner.     

It was a nice start to the 2020-2021 season for Scott finishing 6th at the Fortinet but missed the cut in the next two events.  I’m not going to let that stop me from rostering him.  He’s excelled in two areas this season, driving and on the greens ranking Top 50 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Putting.  Scott finished 26th at the Bermuda last season.  When you look through this field, believe it or not, he’s one of the more stable options.  I’d feel comfortable with him in cash or tournament play.

He has made the cut in one of his two starts this season but most will remember this guy for his surprising Top 10 finish at the Palmetto Championship in only his second PGA Tour start.  He should have most of the butterflies and nerves out of his system after getting a few PGA Tour rounds under his belt.  Lipsky had a hell of a season on the Korn Ferry Tour with a victory and another six Top 10 finishes.  When looking over his profile, 19th in Scoring Average, 24th in Driving Accuracy, 28th in Birdie Average, 30th in All Around and 45th in Ball Striking were the things that stood out most to me.  In a field like this one, he has peaked his head up into the 8K range.

He closed the 2020-2021 season better than most anyone on the PGA Tour.  He made the cut in 12 of his last 13 events including his first two starts of this season.  Over that time, he scored four Top 20 finishes as well.  Hubbard isn’t a bomber and isn’t even the best on the greens but he’s a terrific ball striker and in this field, that’s what you need to succeed.  As we move down the pricing sheet, it becomes harder and harder to find safe options.  

I’ve always had a soft spot for Knox, not really sure why.  He seems to pop up at the right times for me and here’s another week where he stands out.  Knox finished Top 20 at this event last year.  The Scot made the cut in his first two events of the new season before missing it at the Shriners.  He’s always been a premiere ball striker but putting has never been consistent enough for sustained success.  He finished last season Top 20 in Strokes Gained Approach and 8th in Greens in Regulation.  Another player with plenty of experience playing on island coastlines being from Scotland. 

This 24-year-old played last season on the Korn Ferry Tour.  He had one win and another six Top 10 finishes which includes the Shriners just a couple weeks back.  Hall was a Top 10 putter last season and had an All Around ranking of 26th on the Korn Ferry.  Oh and did I mention that he’s English?  He’s got that skill set I’m looking for on an island course like this one.  He’s a cheap option that will likely get overlooked by the public this weekend.  He’s a terrific GPP play at the Bermuda.  

Brian Gay picked up his fifth career victory at last year’s Bermuda Championship beating Wyndham Clark in a playoff.  The defending champ may not be as popular of a pick because of his recent play.  He’s made just two cuts in his last 12 starts on the PGA Tour and now you are wondering why I’m pushing to play him this weekend.  He can’t compete on these courses that are over 7200 yards, but the playing field is leveled on a course this short and a field this weak.  He can compete at this event and that’s why I think he’ll make for a sneaky play.  

I know he didn’t make the cut at this event last year but this is a new year and he always seems to show up when the fields are weak.  When you look over his recent play, the events that he’s had high finishes are the ones where the Top 25-30 players in the world are not playing.  Top 10s at the John Deere and 3M and Top 15s at the Wyndham and Barbasol.  This is another guy who can’t compete on this long courses but with his accuracy off the tee and putting ability, he could surprise people this weekend.  I’m not saying he’s going to go out and win, but at this price tag, you are just looking for him to make the cut.

Here is a player I think is flat out mispriced.  He is too talented of a player to be under 7K in a field like this one.  I would have priced him around $8000-7500 just look at the players they do have in that range.  Their mistake is our gain this weekend.  Cook has two Top 15 finishes in his last four starts on the PGA Tour.  This one time PGA Tour winner doesn’t have the biggest driver but he can keep it on the fairways and putt better than most, especially in this field.  He also has a decent history playing on island courses.  

This is the tournament last year where I first took notice of his game as he finished in a tie for 11th.  Prior to his missed cut at the Sanderson, he had made five straight cuts including a Top 20 finish at the Barbasol.  He does have a history of playing well on island courses scoring a Top 5 at the Puntacana Championship.  When you look over his stats from last year, the one that stands out is his putting.  It sticks out like a sore thumb because it’s the only one ranked inside the Top 100, in fact he finished Top 35.  At this point on the pricing sheet, we’re basically throwing darts