PGA DFS Playbook - Waste Management Open

Followed up his disappointing 14th place at the American Express with a third at the Farmers Insurance.  The number one player in the world comes home to where he played his college ball to play in one of his favorite events.  He’s never missed the cut in five trips and all of his finishes have been between ninth and 16th.  I know he wants to win this one in front of the rowdy Arizona crowd.  I am going to find a way to fit him at any cost.

You can’t ignore what he’s doing right now.  The 2021 PGA Player of the Year picked up where he left off last season.  Since winning the Tour Championship, he’s made all three cuts and hasn’t finished lower than ninth in any event.  While he hasn’t played at TPC Scottsdale before, he won’t have any problems with this course, especially knowing his superior iron play and putting ability.

Hideki has victories in two of his last four starts on the PGA Tour.  He won the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in October and then chased down Russell Henley on the back nine at the Sony Open.  He has owned the Waste Management Open in his career with two wins and two other Top 5 finishes but all of those happened prior to 2018.  I believe his form is right to regain his domination of TPC Scottsdale this year.  He ranks 11th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 18th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 22nd in Greens in Regulation and 36th in Strokes Gained Around the Green on the season.

He paid off for us big time at Pebble with a runner up finish.  We didn’t let the missed cut at the Farmers stop us from rostering him.  He has a very boom or bust history at the Waste Management with three Top 10 finishes and two missed cuts.  I will say that the two years he missed the cut were during his down seasons.  We’ve seen his comeback and I believe that will continue this weekend in Arizona.  The skill with the irons is real and it is spectacular but it will come down to the putter.

Fantastic start to 2021-2022 for Sam Burns with a win at the Sanderson Farms, a 5th place at the CJ CUP, and 7th at the Houston.  Few guys better at driving the ball on the PGA Tour than Mr. Burns.  He missed his first cut since the U.S. Open back in June at the Farmers Insurance and I think that’s a good thing for him.  I’m hoping it brought him back down to earth and gets back to what has been working.  He finished 22nd last season at this event.  Burns ranks 9th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 13th in Greens in Regulation, 21st in Strokes Gained: Approach and Off the Tee..  

The 2020 rookie of the year has not missed a cut since early October with two Top 5 finishes in November.  After missing the cut in his first trip to the Waste Management, he scored a Top 10 last year.  As I mentioned in the article, distance isn’t an advantage but it doesn’t hurt on this course.  He’s got ball striking skills for a big guy ranking 38th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 44th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.  What I really like is that he’s Top 30 in Greens in Regulation and Scoring Average on the season.   

Last week’s Pebble Beach sixth place finish was the first time we’d seen him on the PGA Tour since early November.  He has been active though overseas, finishing Top 10 at the BMW PGA Championship and winning at the Andalucia Masters.  He also participated in the Ryder Cup.  You know what you get when you roster Fitzpatrick, straight drives and superior putting.  I think you’ll get good ownership when you look at the players around him on the pricing sheet.

Webb would be the first to admit that last season was not his best but he’s too good of a player to be down for long.  We know he doesn’t have the power but he makes up for it in superior ball striking, chipping and putting.  In his last 11 trips to TPC Scottsdale, he’s missed the cut just twice and has a win (2020), a runner up (2017) and two other Top 10s.  After playing at the Sony, he took a nice long break and getting back into action at one of his favorite courses.

I give this dude a lot of credit for bouncing back with a Top 15 at the American Express after being chased down by Hideki Matsuyama on the back nine at the Sony the week prior.  He had yet to miss a cut this 2021-2022 season with a runner up, a Top 10 and three other Top 25 finishes thus far.  When you are ranked 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 4th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and 12th in Greens in Regulation, you are going to compete in a lot of golf tournaments, I don’t care what kind of course.  He has had a mixed bag at TPC Scottsdale with three Top 30 finishes and two missed cuts in his last five trips.

Since his missed cut at the U.S. Open in mid-June, he has not missed a cut since with three Top 20 finishes.  He’s found his groove once again especially with his short game.  He ranks 8th in Strokes Gained: Around the Greens, 10th in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 15th in Scrambling.  Billy has made the cut at this event seven straight trips with a Top 10 finish in 2020.  When he gets that driver back into top form, he’ll make some noise on the tour once again.  I’m going to bank on his consistency continuing this weekend in Phoenix. 

The terrific start to the 2021-2022 season came to a crashing halt at the American Express.  That ended a streak of 10 straight cuts made but he bounced back with a Top 20 at the Farmers Insurance.  The ball striking has been fantastic and his short game has been on point this season.  Gooch ranks Top 20 in Strokes Gained: Approach, Around the Green, and Tee to Green and Greens in Regulation.  He is going to be a favorite play of mine this season, as long as his price tag doesn’t go up too much more.  He does not have a great history at the Waste Management but when he’s swinging the club like this, no course is off limits.    

He’s been making the most out of the early portion of the PGA Tour schedule.  He’s played in eight events and made the cut in seven of them.  He’s also got two Top 15 finishes and clocked a Top 10 just last week at Pebble Beach.  After missing the cut in his first two trips to the Waste Management, he finished 7th last year.  We have all seen his abilities on the greens but what’s made the difference has been his ball striking ranking Top 50 in Strokes Gained: Approach on the season.  

So, I know he hurt us last week at Pebble with his missed cut.  He just could not get it going on the coast but man if there’s one place to roster him it’s at TPC Scottsdale.  He’s made the cut in nine straight trips and has four Top 10 finishes.  He had made the cut in five straight events prior to last week.  He can still hit the ball extremely straight off the tee (Top 20) and putt better than most anyone on the PGA Tour (25th).  I love the price tag and you know a lot of people will be off on him after last week’s missed cut.    

This Scot has had very mixed results to start this 2021-2022 PGA Tour season and that’s why he’ll be a primary GPP play for me.  He’s got two Top 12 finishes but also four missed cuts.  We know Knox is a premiere ball striker ranking 16th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 26th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green on the season.  He’s been to this event six times making the cut four times with three Top 16 finishes.  Russell will be in a lot of my tournament lineups.

You all should know the risks when rostering Keegan Bradley, he’ll basically win you or lose you a tournament every time out.  He’s coming off of another up and down season in 2020-2021 and nothing has changed early on this season.  In his seven starts this season, he’s made the cut in five and has two Top 12 finishes.  We’ve seen him have success at TPC Scottsdale making the cut in eight of his 10 trips with five Top 25 finishes including just last year.  We know he can ball strike with the best on the PGA Tour ranking 24th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 26th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 39th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee but 191st in Strokes Gained: Putting.  You take the good with the bad when it comes to Keegan, keep those fingers crossed.  

This kid has a ton of talent but the results have been very mixed early in his career and this season.  I will say that he’s made seven straight cuts coming into this weekend in Phoenix which is good.  He has never been to TPC Scottsdale but he ranks Top 70 in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Strokes Gained: Around the Green and Top 10 in Sand Saves which will serve him well this weekend.

He doesn’t make my playbook often but when you see a player priced under $6500 who is ranked Top 50 or better in both Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee to Green, you take a closer look.  He is also 23rd in sand save percentage as well.  Hickok has played in seven events this season and has made the cut in four of them with a Top 5 and Top 20 finish.  He has never been to TPC Scottsdale but with his skill set, I don’t expect this course to give him too many problems.  

This will be Sepp’s first appearance in the playbook for the 2021-2022 PGA Tour season.  It’s been a season of runs for him this season.  He missed three cuts, made three cuts, missed two cuts and has made his last three heading into this weekend.  Finished 16th in his last start at the Farmers.  The iron play has improved over the last month but he’ll need that to continue if he wants to make the weekend in Arizona.