PGA DFS Playbook - Arnold Palmer Invitational

I thought there would be more rust on Rory but finished Top 10 in his 2022 debut at the Genesis.  He has basically owned Bay Hill with five straight Top 10 finishes and a win in 2018.  We know what Rory brings to the table when he’s got his game right, fantastic off the tee and ball striking.  I’d rather pay down a bit for him this weekend than Rahm and that’s saying a lot

I do love this sweet swing Norwegian despite his history at this course.  I’m surprised to know he hasn’t finished better than 40th in his two trips to Bay Hill.  He has the skill set that fits on this course especially this season ranking 8th in Greens in Regulation, 13th in Strokes Gained: Approach and 19th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.  He’s also number one on tour in Birdie Average.  The 24-year-old already has three career wins and just finished Top 5 at Riviera where he flashed a hot putter.  

Hideki already has two wins this season which is why he leads the PGA Tour in FedEx Cup points.  He is nine for nine in cuts made this season and seven for seven in cuts made at this event in his career.  Hideki also has three Top 25 finishes including a 6th place.  The form is there to put another Top 10 on the board this weekend ranking 12th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 15th in Strokes Gained: Approach, 19th in Greens in Regulation and 45th in Strokes Gained Around the Green on the season.  It seems like he isn’t getting talked about a lot but I love him this weekend.

He got his feet back under him after COVID-19 at the Genesis finishing 26th for the week.  Will has two finishes of 6th or better in 2022 already.  He leads the tour in Strokes Gained: Approach and Tee to Green, you can’t get much better ball striking than that.  He is also 9th in Greens in Regulation and 25th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.  You should not be surprised that he finished 10th at this event in his debut last year.

After back to back Top 10 finishes at Pebble Beach and Waste Management, he had to pull out of the Genesis with a stomach flu.  I love him on this course and it shows in his previous results.  He’s got three straight Top 10 finishes including a runner up in 2019.  He doesn’t have a PGA Tour win yet but he’s got seven international victories which tells me that it’s only a matter of time.  He ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 5th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 6th in Scoring Average, 12th in Strokes Gained: Putting, and 14th in Birdie Average.  He’s one of the most balanced players in the field.  

The big Australian is having a terrific season.  He has not missed a cut since the Open Championship back in July of 2021.  Over that run, he’s got two Top 10s and another four Top 20s including back to back events coming into this week.  Since 2010, he has missed three cuts but also has four Top 10s including a win in 2017.  He ranks 7th in Birdie Average, 15th in Scoring Average and Strokes Gained: Putting, 30th in both Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Greens in Regulation.  He’s a great play this weekend.   

He will go under the radar with guys like Sam Burns and Talor Gooch around him in the pricing sheet.  Homa has three Top 15 finishes in his last four starts.  He has improved in each of his starts at Bay Hill going 24th in his first trip and 10th in his second.  He ranks 20th in Birdie Average and Top 50 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Putting, and Tee to Green.  I feel like he’s going to be a sneaky GPP play this weekend.

He has been absent from my playbook for awhile and it’s not because he’s struggling.  Jason won at the Houston Open and has back to back finishes of 26th or better.  He has made the cut at this event three straight years with two Top 10 finishes.  Strokes Gained: Off the Tee is typically his strongest attribute but that hasn’t been the case thus far this season.  His ability to drive the ball and keep the ball on the fairway has lead to his success in the past at this event.  The putting has been good this season and he ranks 18th in Greens in Regulation and 22nd in Birdie Average. 

After a great run over in Dubai, he returned to U.S. soil at the Genesis and finished 15th.  He comes back to action at another course he loves in Bay Hill.  He has made the cut at this event in four of his last five trips with two Top 10 finishes.  We all know the type of player Casey is and what he brings to the course every time he tees it up.  He can strike the ball better than most everyone in the world and that’s why I’ll roster him this weekend at Bay Hill.  

This guy is having a breakthrough season.  No, he hasn’t won but he is playing consistent golf.  The upside is off the charts with this guy.  He has five pay days in his last six starts.  Keith finished 12th or better in all five of those starts including Top 10s at the Waste Management and last week at a very difficult Honda Classic.  He ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and 11th in Scoring Average on the season.  I don’t know how you can’t love him this weekend. 

Tringale pulled out of the Honda Classic late but did finish Top 15 in his last start at the Genesis Open.  He’s been very boom or bust this season but I like to see that he’s made the cut in four straight trips with two Top 30 finishes.  He is one of those players who is pretty consistent throughout the bag and no glaring weakness.  Tringale ranks Top 50 in Greens in Regulation, Scoring Average, Strokes Gained: Approach, Around the Greens, Putting, and Tee to Green.  He is always a safe option.

Maverick is having a career start to his season.  He started with a runner up at the Fortinet.  He has made nine of his 10 cuts this season with seven Top 30 finishes.  The dude is one of the best driver’s of the golf ball in the world.  He ranks Top 30 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Putting, and Tee to Green.  I also like to see he’s 8th in Strokes Average.  McNealy’s price has dropped to a level I love to see and I’ll jump all over

After a rough run of missing three cuts in four events, he has found form over the last couple weeks with back to back Top 15 finishes at the Waste Management and Honda.  He has made the cut in four of his last five trips to Bay Hill.  In those four pay days, he finished 15th or better.  He ranks Top 50 in Scoring Average, Driving Accuracy and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.  Kirk is also Top 20 in the world in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.  I will say that he will be a popular pick this weekend, high ownership expected.

I think this may be my first time putting him into my playbook.  I think I wanted to see more before I believed what I was seeing from him.  He’s a talented young player who looks to be finding his form.  The driver is legit and it will win him tournaments in his career.  He ranks 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and 5th in Driving Distance (nearly 320 average).  Young is also 11th in Birdie Average and Top 40 in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Putting.  While this will be his first trip to Bay Hill, he’s made five straight cuts with a runner up at the Genesis Open.  

Griffin has got something going this season with three Top 10 finishes and just one missed cut thus far.  That includes a third place finish at the American Express.  He fits the mold ranking 52nd or better in Stroke Average, Strokes Gained: Approach, Tee to Green and Putting on the season.  He has made the cut in both of his trips to Bay Hill with his best finish of 21st coming just last year.  He consistently makes for a great value option.

This 28 year old Canadian has bounced around the Canadian and Korn Ferry tours since turning pro but does have a full PGA Tour card this season.  The fall portion of the 2021-2022 PGA Tour season was very inconsistent but 2022 kicked off with a bang as he finished 7th at the Sony Open.  Since that Top 10, he has made the cut in four straight events and added another Top 10 last week at a very difficult PGA National.  He finished 11th in Greens in Regulation, 13th in Scoring Average, and 19th in Scrambling last year on the Korn Ferry Tour.  This is another guy who could pay off big in GPPs if he makes the cut.

Another guy you haven’t seen in my playbook in a long time but has earned his way back.  I am not saying that his stats will wow you because they won’t but he’s playing well coming into this weekend.  He has made the cut in four of his five cuts in 2022 with two Top 16 finishes including last weekend at the Honda.  Taylor has been to Bay Hill four times with two made cuts which is not surprising knowing how tough this course can be.  Mining through the 6K players, I found someone who is playing well and hoping that continues at the API.

I will say again, when you are looking through this 6K range, it’s tough to find solid options but I do like Beau this weekend.  He has never missed the cut at Bay Hill in three trips and has improved his final standing each trip (Top 25 last year).  Hossler also has made the cut in three of his last four starts with a Top 10 at Pebble and Top 20 at the Honda last week.  He ranks 55th in both Strokes Gained: Total and Scoring Average.  Putting has always been a strength of his and ranks Top 20 on tour right now.  This is the type of play that if he finishes Top 20, could help win you a GPP.