DFS PGA Playbook: Well Fargo Championship

We haven’t seen Rory since his amazing sand hole out on the 18 hole at Augusta.  He put on a show on Sunday at the Masters and showed us that he can still play like the best in the world.  I’m looking at this field and there’s no question he’s the best playing this weekend.  He is the defending champ but it was on a different course.  I’m still willing to pay up for him despite that fact.

Yes, he’s struggled this season but I believe in his talent.  This is the type of course that fits his game perfectly.  Ancer relies on his accuracy for success and that’s why he finished Top 5 in his one previous trip to Avenel.  I’m choosing to look past his stats this season and remember that he finished last year ranked Top 30 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Approach, Putting and Tee to Green.  We know he has the skills to go low on this course and stand on top of a field like this one.  

We do not have to talk about his early season slump anymore because I believe he’s all the way back to top form.  Conners has made the cut in six straight events with four finishes of 12th or better over that span.  This course enforces accuracy especially off the tee and attacking these greens.  He ranks 3rd in Greens in Regulation, 6th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 13th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, 23rd in Scoring Average, 33rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 36th in Birdie Average.  He’s ready for this challenge.

Hatton is playing some of the most consistent golf of his career right now.  Since his runner up at the Arnold Palmer, he’s rattled off six straight pay days with only one finish outside the Top 26.  While his accuracy off the tee is less than ideal, his approach and putting have been on point.  He ranks 1st on the tour in Strokes Gained: Putting and Top 55 in Birdie Average, Scoring Average, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, and Strokes Gained: Total.  The only risk you have with playing Hatton is his propensity to blow up occasionally but he’s managed to keep his cool this season. 

It is good to see Gary Woodland’s name back on leaderboards.  The 2019 U.S. Open winner has struggled to find his game since that career win but it looks to be coming around in 2022.  In his last seven starts, he has three Top 10s and additional two Top 25s with his only two missed cuts being at the Masters and PLAYERS.  He ranks 31st or better in Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, Strokes Gained: Total and Top 70 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Greens in Regulation.  When you look at this field, he’s definitely one of the more elite players across the board.

Homa has played in nine tournaments in 2022, made the cut in eight and has finished 21st or better in six of them.  He has struggled on the greens but the ball striking has been consistent throughout the bag.  Homa ranks Top 40 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, and Birdie Average.  Max picked up one of his three career victories at this event in 2019 when Quail Hollow played host.  He could be a sneaky play this weekend.

Power started 2022 on fire with two Top 10s and two Top 15 finishes followed by three straight missed cuts.  It looks like he’s gotten things back on track with back to back cuts made at solo stroke events.  Power also made the cut in both of his trips to the Quicken Loans at Avenel.  He ranks 21st or better in Greens in Regulation, Birdie Average, Scoring Average, and Top 50 in both Strokes Gained: Putting and Total.  Keeping it accurate off the tee is key to success and that’s what he does better than most.   

Cameron has three Top 3 finishes since the start of the 2021-2022 season (Sanderson, Genesis, and in his last start at the RBC Heritage).  Harbour Town is a similar course which is why you’ll see a lot of players from that playbook in this one.  He has a nice mix of power and putting which has led to his success.  Young ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, 5th in Driving Distance, 6th in Birdie Average, 19th in Scoring Average and 30th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.  This 24 year old has yet to earn his first career PGA Tour victory but it can’t be long with his talents.

This has been the best start to Keith’s career.  He has made the cut in seven of his eight stroke event starts in 2022 with five Top 15 finishes.  While Mitchell missed the cut in his one start at Avenel, I’m looking at it as experience and playing much better.  He ranks 2nd on tour in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, as well as 12th in Scoring Average, 17th in Birdie Average, 23rd in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and 27th in Greens in Regulation.  He makes for a nice mid-tier play in both cash and tournaments.  

The man known for sporting his bucket hat has had a very nice season thus far.  Over his 15 events started, he has missed just two cuts.  He finished Top 25 in the last tournament held at Avenel in 2018.  We also saw him finish Top 15 at the RBC Heritage which we’ve spoken about the similarities between these courses.  Dahman currently ranks Top 10 in Greens in Regulation, 17th in Birdie Average, 21st in Driving Accuracy and 46th in Strokes Gained: Approach.  I consider him a safe option to play this weekend in cash or tournaments.

I should have been paying better attention to how well this guy has been playing.  Lahiri has made five straight cuts with a runner up at THE PLAYERS and Top 15 finishes at the Valero and last week’s Mexico Open.  He jumps out at me this week because he ranks Top 60 in both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Approach.  Oh did I mention that he finished Top 15 in the last tournament held at Avenel in 2018?  You are getting a nice price tag on him in a weak field.

This veteran is having a nice run over the last month.  He finished Top 5 in his last start at the Zurich Classic with buddy Keegan Bradley.  While he did miss the cut in his last appearance at Avenel, he’s got more experience on this course than most this weekend.  This 39 year old can still give the ball a good poke with the driver ranking 22nd in Driving Distance and 5th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.  He’s also striking the ball well ranking 53rd on tour in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green.  

Martin Laird finished in a tie for third at this course in 2017.  I tell you that because the Scot has struggled recently missing three of his last four cuts.  You would not know about his struggles looking at his stats ranking Top 30 in Strokes Gained: Approach, Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and Driving Accuracy on the season.  I’ll add that he’s also Top 60 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Around the Green, Greens in Regulation, and Scoring Average.  When I see those numbers, I’m like he should fit this course just right and I don’t care about his cuts made.  I’ll take a shot.  

Here’s another value option with experience on this course.  He made the cut at the 2018 Quicken Loans at Avenel.  Duncan made the cut in five of his last seven starts with two Top 15 finishes.  One of those 15s was at the RBC Heritage and we’ve talked about the similarities there.  He ranks Top 70 (which seems high but when you look at this field, that’s good) in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, Approach, Around the Green, Tee to Green and Total.  What stands out for this course is his fifth place rank in Driving Accuracy.  I think he’s a guy you could sneak into a tournament lineup and make some noise when he makes the cut.

I told you about him last week and while he only finished 67th, he did make the cut.  I liked what I saw from him and his approach numbers improved.  He’s made the cut in six of his last nine starts with a high water mark of 11th at the Farmers.  He averages over 300 off the tee and ranks Top 15 in Strokes Gained: Approach and Top 50 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.  The 6K range is rough but when I saw him, I knew he would be worth a play in tournament lineups.

I really don’t think anyone will be looking at Chappell this weekend but they should.  He made three straight cuts with two Top 20 finishes before withdrawing from the Mexico Open with an undisclosed reason.  Kevin played in the 2017 Quicken Loans at Avenel and missed the cut but once again that’s more experience than a lot in this field.  He can still crush the ball off the tee ranking Top 15 on tour.  I also like seeing that he’s Top 50 in Greens in Regulation.  Maybe someone else is thinking about him but I love him as a sneaky play.

I like to have a cheap option every week and this was the best I could come up with in this crazy mixed up 6K range.  Hayden stood out because he’s ranked 14th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and 15th in Driving Accuracy.  Those stats should serve him well at Avenel.  Buckley also ranks Top 30 in Greens in Regulation.  He has made the cut in four of his last six stroke events.  You could do a lot worse in this range of players. 

Francesco ran away with the 2018 Quicken Loans winning by eight strokes on TPC Potomac.  It should not surprise you that he did because his style of play is a perfect fit for this course.  It’s a short course that rewards accuracy.  We haven’t seen him since his missed cut at the Masters but prior to that, he had made five of his last six cuts heading into Augusta.  Molinari is picking and choosing his events very carefully and this was an easy decision for him