After a one-day hiatus with no games, the 2022 NBA Playoffs resume on Friday night, May 6, with the season on the line for both the Philadelphia 76ers and Dallas Mavericks. Before you set those NBA daily fantasy lineups, note that no NBA team has ever recovered to win a series when falling behind zero games to three in a seven-game tilt. As we look at tonight’s DFS NBA slate, the big question still remains whether or not we will see Joel Embiid return to action for the 76ers. Embiid headlines the NBA injury report tonight and it could very well come down to the wire whether he's in the starting lineup or not against the Miami Heat. It all hinges on the comfort of a protective face mask for Embiid. As we create our DFS lineups on FanDuel, DraftKings & Yahoo, we’ll have to be careful which 76ers we roster until we know for sure whether or not Embiid is playing. Meanwhile, Luka Doncic will lead the Mavericks in a must-win game at home against Chris Paul, Devin Booker, and the Phoenix Suns. Here are tonight’s DFS NBA core plays.

 

 

NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs

Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers (MIA up 2-0)

 

 

There’s nothing that convinces me that Philadelphia will win this series, even if Joel Embiid does play for the rest of the way. We have to think that if he does play, he won’t be limited when it comes to playing time. After splitting the season series 2-2, the Sixers have lost both playoff matchups by double figures and even though Miami wasn’t at full strength with Kyle Lowry inactive, they still have strong drivers and without Embiid in the mix, Philadelphia lacks size. When it comes to setting DFS lineups involving players from the Sixers, make sure you’re checking the news until we get some kind of confirmation in regards to his status.

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If he’s in and we’re not told of a minutes restriction, we have to play Joel Embiid. He’s already cleared the league’s concussion protocol and it all comes down to comfort with his facial gear. Embiid has a 38.2 usage percentage when on the floor and he had a lot of success versus the Heat during the regular season. He grabbed no fewer than 12 rebounds in any of the three games he played against Miami and even though Bam Adebayo and Embiid were on the floor together in one of the four games that were played between these two teams, Embiid still pulled down 15 rebounds. Let’s not forget that Embiid scored over 30 points per game this year and he will get force-fed the ball. He’s taken no fewer than 15 shots in any post-season game in 2022 and if he’s out there, as long as he can see clearly, there’s no reason to think he won’t be heavily prioritize and we should look to play him in DFS.

 

 

It’s questionable spending up for James Harden without Embiid in the lineup. Even if Embiid returns, it certainly won’t help Harden’s cause. Harden has been all over the place in the playoffs when it comes to his shooting percentage and he’s making very poor decisions with the ball and he turns the ball over carelessly. He’s not even moving that swiftly when driving the lane. He looks sluggish on the court and even though his usage percentage is still about 25 with Embiid on the floor, it’s still very hard to trust him. He’s not rebounding consistently and for a player who dropped over 10 dimes per game during the season, he’s contributed just 14 assists total in the series. Harden wastes too much time trying to create and with Jimmy Butler constantly watching you, that’s not going to work and the possession will be elongated and it won’t be easy for him to drive on one of the most sound teams defensively in the NBA. Be careful. He’s hit the 20-point mark in just two of his last four battles.

 

 

Bam Adebayo's had a strong couple of games as the Sixers have no answer for him, but if Embiid plays, it’ll be a lot harder for Adebayo to find success. When he battled Embiid back in early March, Adebayo scored just six points. He did grab 10 rebounds, but he had a poor shooting outing. If Embiid does play, it may be smarter to prioritize Embiid or Deandre Ayton over him if looking for a big man. Embiid is a strong defender and Adebayo won’t have easy trips to the basket with the ball. If Embiid is out, Adebayo becomes a must-play because he’s averaged 23.5 points and 10.5 rebounds in his series. He’s also grabbed steals in four of his last five and blocked shots in two of his last three contests.

 

 

After Jimmy Butler notched a double-double in the previous game, we can’t get too excited that he'll contribute as many assists because there’s a chance that Kyle Lowry can return to action, and even though Butler spends a decent amount of the game bringing up the ball, Lowry will have the ball in his hands more unless his playing time is restricted. He continues to post multi-steal games as his streak reached six after Game 2. Butler has done a great job taking advantage of the Sixers lack of size and even if Embiid plays, he’ll have to keep an eye on the mobile Adebayo and Butler should still be able to find ways to attack the paint. Butler has shot over 53 percent from the floor in two of his last three battles. If Embiid returns this game should be a lot more competitive and we should see Butler play around 40 minutes.

 

 

Tobias Harris' usage percentage drops about seven percent if Embiid is back out there. Harris has scored 21-plus points in both games in this series and he’s shot over 52 percent from the field in both contests and he took at least 17 shots in both games. If Embiid plays, Harris could still take 12-15 shots but betting on him to score 20 points is very risky. Harris’ rebounding and production in other areas haven’t been consistent over his last few games. He’s coming off of a four-steal game but still only pulled down four boards. He doesn’t even average one fantasy point per minute when Embiid is there and even though he may see higher-percentage shots, he won’t take as many. There are only so many directions we can go for DFS with two games on the slate, but Harris has shot well this series being that the Sixers backs are up against the wall, I don’t think they would try to mainly use Embiid as a decoy to draw defenders out to him. They need his scoring ability to keep up.

 

 

Even if Kyle Lowry returns to action, Tyler Herro will still be heavily relied on and will get a good amount of shots. He’ll be prioritized over Victor Oladipo who had a strong game two versus Philadelphia. He’s shot 50 percent or better from the floor in each of his last three outings and he’s hit at least 60 percent of his three-pointers in both games in this series. Herro will have to step inside the arc and grab long rebounds especially if Embiid returns because he’ll control the paint. If Herro is waiting at the elbow, he should benefit from shots that bounce hard off the rim and back towards him. Let’s not forget that he grabbed about five rebounds per game. The Heat haven’t been using Duncan Robinson for his three-point shooting and Herro should take 10-15 shots this evening.

 

 

NBA Western Conference Playoffs

Phoenix Suns @ Dallas Mavericks (PHX up 2-0)

 

 

In Game 1 of the series, the Suns had full control until the last few minutes when Dallas stormed back and it ended up being a seven-point victory for Phoenix. Last game, Dallas was actually winning at halftime and the Suns outscored them 71-49 in the second half. Considering the Suns shot 64.5 percent from the floor last game, it’s a bit puzzling that they are only favored by one point heading into tonight. Dallas doesn’t have the size or muscle to stop Deandre Ayton and if he wasn’t in foul trouble last game, he would have once again had a bunch of easy trips to the basket. The Suns were making it look too easy dumping the ball inside. Even JaVale McGee and Bismack Biyombo were scoring inside and blocking shots even with the limited amount of minutes that they received. Luka Doncic will have to score close to 50 points and the Suns would have to shoot horribly from the field in order for the Mavs to win this game, but Dallas just doesn’t have enough reliable scorers and big-man defenders to be able to compete with Phoenix.

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Luka Doncic has averaged 40 points in this series and he’s shot 50 percent from the field or better against the Suns. The Mavs season is pretty much on the line tonight because they won’t come back and win down zero to three in this series. There’s no reason Doncic shouldn’t play 40 minutes tonight. He’s blocked shots in three of his last four and stole the ball in two of his last three games. Remember, this is a major pace boost for Dallas because the Suns play fast and Doncic will have to be in full attack mode once again and not focus as much on scoring from the arc unless he has a good look. Doncic needs to keep the Suns moving and attacking the rim consistently could once again put Deandre Ayton in foul trouble. He must get to the free-throw line more as he only took five free-throws last game. He needs to be in double figures in that area. The Suns have had no answer for Doncic and until they limit him, we can keep spending big for him in DFS.

 

 

Deandre Ayton hardly produced last game, but we have to remember that he was in foul trouble and the Suns didn’t really need him to play heavy minutes. We can hold it against him as Dallas is just very undersized and their big men aren’t quick and Ayton can hit shots from anywhere inside the arc. We saw him score 25 points in the first game of this series and basic give-and-go plays did the trick as he hit 12 of 20 shots. That should once again be the game plan going in. Despite pulling down 10 rebounds per game during the regular season, Ayton hasn’t hit that mark in each of his last five battles, but being that we should see him play mid-30s minutes tonight. He should provide enough offense to make up for the lack of double-digit rebounding. He did grab 15 rebounds per game against Dallas this year and he’s even blocked shots in two of his last three contests.

 

 

Devin Booker was on fire in Game 2, especially in the second half. He shot over 62 percent from the field and dropped 30 points on the Mavs. He’s taken 19 or more shots in both games in this series and he’s even grabbed 6.5 boards and dished six dimes per game. He’s been getting a good amount of time to bring the ball up and with Luka Doncic shadowing Chris Paul, Booker draws the better matchup against Jalen Brunson. Yes, Reggie Bullock will switch on Booker and that will make it harder for him to score, but he hit five three-pointers last time out and we should expect him to continue to around 20 shots and we saw him shoot over 46 percent during the regular season. Even the Suns guards are attacking the rim a lot because Dallas can’t contain anyone in the post on the drive. They don’t adjust quickly enough. Booker has pretty much matched his season-long scoring average in this series as he’s scored 26.5 points per game against Dallas. He’s taken more shots than Paul in this series.

 

 

Chris Paul has also been hot shooting the basketball, hitting at least 53 percent of his shots in both games. He shot over 68 percent in Game 2 and he’s seen a lot of success driving to the basket. We have heard the reports that the Suns will monitor his minutes throughout the playoffs and I was a bit worried when he logged just 29 minutes in Game 1, but then seeing him play 36 minutes is encouraging and we should be able to trust that he’ll play around 35 minutes again as the spread indicates that this game will be very competitive. Paul has also pulled down five or more boards in each of his last four games and he’s swiped balls in every playoff game. Paul’s assists have dropped off a bit since his series against the Pelicans, as Doncic is a much better defender than anyone the Pelicans threw at him. Despite Doncic’s strong defense, Paul scored 19 points in Game 1 and then 28 in Game 2.

 

 

The Mavs don’t have many trustworthy weapons to provide consistent offense, but Jalen Brunson is at least getting the shot volume as he’s taken at least 12 shots in both games this series. He’s been shooting horribly from the field and the Suns lockdown defense is very much taking him out of his rhythm. Brunson will have to hit floaters if he can shake his defender. He’s been contributing in other areas but the bulk of his production will come from his scoring. He has grabbed four or more boards in four of his last five games and has even posted steals in each of his last four battles. He scored over 18 points per game against Phoenix in the regular season and logged strong games against Utah, but the Suns are just on another level defensively and if his drives are constantly getting stalled, he needs to adjust and start looking to shoot from the elbow more. He should play 30 minutes tonight. Brunson also needs to move around more when he doesn’t have the ball to find better shots. If Doncic is driving into traffic, Brunson needs to be trailing him in case he needs to pass off and if Brunson isn’t as stationary, he will be able to find higher-percentage shots. 

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