MLB DFS Value Vault May 19: Rookie MJ Melendez On A Roll
We have a mess of different MLB DFS slates on Thursday, May 19th and it will make finding value plays across all sites extremely difficult. DraftKings is using a four-game daily fantasy baseball main slate starting at 12:35 pm ET. Yahoo is using an eight-game all-day MLB daily fantasy main slate, also starting at 12:35 pm ET. Lastly, FanDuel is using a three-game main starting at 7:05 pm ET, but we are going to use their five-game early-only slate as it’s the closest to DraftKings – the only difference being that it includes the Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians game. On the bright side, it doesn’t appear we will have any MLB weather concerns, but still keep an eye on today's MLB weather report. I do not love this daily fantasy baseball slate, but it should be an interesting one where value/contrarian plays could be huge – especially with no Coors Field on the slate. Lastly, don’t forget to check out the MLB implied runs totals on our Vegas Odds link and use our MLB DFS lineup generator to build winning daily fantasy baseball lineups. Now, let’s dive into our MLB DFS picks for today's action!
MLB DFS Value Pitchers
DraftKings - $7800 / FanDuel - $8100
Jordan Montgomery has pitched very well this season with a 3.06 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 29 Ks across 35.1 innings. His biggest problem is that despite those great ratios he hasn’t won a single game yet as his record stands at 0-1 on the year (so let’s hope the Yankees offense actually gives him some run support today). He has a great matchup against Baltimore. The Orioles have the 8th highest strikeout rate this season at 24.5-percent and that number jumps to 27.9-percent against lefties (third highest in the league). They are also 29th in scoring this season with a lousy average of 3.21 runs per game.
Yahoo - $33
Yahoo is the only site where Marcus Stroman is an option (unless playing different slates on DK or FD than the ones we are looking at – he is also a solid value at 7K on DraftKings 7:10 pm ET slate). Stroman makes his return to action tonight and despite his early-season struggles, it is easy to like his talent at this price in a matchup against the Dbacks. Arizona has the second-highest strikeout rate in all of baseball this season at a 25.4-percent clip and they are 24th in runs per game. On top of that, his last outing was his best performance of the season as he tossed seven shutout innings of two-hit ball with five strikeouts against the Brewers.
MLB DFS Value Hitters
DraftKings - $3400 / FanDuel - $2300 / Yahoo - $12
MJ Melendez is hot as he has homered in back-to-back games and is now hitting .265 with four RBI and four runs scored through his first 34 at-bats in the show. His price is great across all sites, considering who he is facing in Vince Velasquez. He has a 5.53 ERA and 1.52 WHIP this season, which is hardly worse than his career marks of 4.97 and 1.40, respectively. He is also sporting a 2.0 HR/9 this season. I expect Melendez to be highly rostered on DK and Yahoo, but he could be a sneaky good play on FD with the way people avoid catchers.
DraftKings - $2300 / FanDuel - $2000 / Yahoo - $7
Chris Owings has been really bad this season, but our options on a small slate are limited and as I’ve mentioned a few times throughout the year, he has been far better against lefties. He is slashing .182/.357/.227 against southpaws, compared to .063/.167/.063 against righties (neither line is good obviously, but at least there’s at least a pulse against lefties). On the bright side, at the minimum price it won’t take a whole lot for Owings to hit value and he probably will see very low rostership.
DraftKings - $2000 / FanDuel - $2500
AJ Pollock hasn’t been very good this year, but he is showing some life with a hit in three straight games, going 4-9 with two doubles, an RBI, and a run scored in that span. Most importantly is the fact that he is facing a pitcher who has a 9.11 ERA (!) and 2.03 WHIP (!) through six starts this season in Carlos Hernández. Those are not typos, the guy has been absolutely shelled and there is no reason to believe that won’t continue today as he just lacks talent.
FanDuel - $2500
Gleyber Torres isn’t much of a value on other sites, but this is a great on FanDuel. Over the past three games, he has scored 15.2, 12.2, and 12.7 points on FD, going 5-12 with two doubles, two walks, and three runs scored in that span. He has a .258 average and .581 SLG against lefties this season, compared to .247 and .395 against righties, respectively. That is similar to what we saw last season with Torres having more success against lefties as he slashed .293/.359/.443 against lefties, compared to .245/.318/.332 against righties.
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Carlos Narváez went 2-for-4 and clubbed a three-run homer on Sunday night, propelling the Red Sox to an 11-7 victory over the Yankees.
The 26-year-old backstop crushed a 372-foot (101.0 mph EV) three-run shot off of Carlos Rodón in the sixth inning that turned a 3-2 deficit into a 5-3 advantage for the Red Sox. Narváez also drew a walk and singled in the ballgame. On the season, he has slashed a respectable .282/.361/.459 with six homers and 22 RBI in his first 191 plate appearances.
Kristian Campbell launched a two-run homer on Sunday night, helping to lead the Red Sox past the Yankees in New York.
The 22-year-old rookie infielder tagged Yankees’ starter Carlos Rodón for a 349-foot (99.0 mph EV) two-run shot in the fifth inning that tied the game at two runs apiece. It was just his second home run since April 29 and first since May 13. Campbell also drew a walk and singled in the ballgame, finishing the night 2-for-3. On the season, he’s now slashing .233/.323/.364 with five long balls, 20 RBI and two stolen bases in 234 plate appearances.
Rafael Devers went 1-for-4 with a solo homer and a pair of runs scored on Sunday night as the Red Sox bested the Yankees in New York.
Devers did his damage in the ninth inning, crushing a leadoff 393-foot (111.2 mph EV) solo shot off of Brent Headrick that extended the Red Sox’ advantage to 10-5. He was also hit by a pitch in the sixth inning and rode home on a three-run shot by Carlos Narvaez. The 28-year-old slugger is now slashing a healthy .283/.407/.522 with 14 homers and 57 RBI on the season.
Aroldis Chapman picked up his easiest save of the season on Sunday, recording the final out against the Yankees to protect a four-run advantage.
That out came after Robert Stock had given up a couple of runs at put another couple of runners on with two outs, putting the tying run in the on-deck circle. That’s when Red Sox’ skipper Alex Cora turned to Chapman to end the threat. The 37-year-old southpaw needed just three pitches to strike out Anthony Volpe to end it. On the season, he sports a brilliant 1.71 ERA to go with a 35/9 K/BB ratio over 26 1/3 innings and 11 saves in his first 12 chances.
Hunter Dobbins picked up his third victory of the season on Sunday evening, limiting the Yankees to three runs on four hits over his five innings of work.
The 25-year-old right-hander surprisingly did not walk or strike out a batter in the ballgame. He served up a mammoth two-run homer to Aaron Judge before he had even recorded an out in the contest, but settled in nicely afterwards and allowed just a solo shot to DJ LeMahieu in the fifth the rest of the way. Dobbins got four whiffs on 64 pitches on the night, posting a CSW of 28 percent. Now 3-1 on the season, he’ll tote a 4.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and a 37/10 K/BB ratio (49 1/3 innings) into a rematch against the Yankees on Saturday evening at Fenway Park.
Aaron Judge went 3-for-4 and clobbered his 22nd and 23rd home runs of the season on Sunday night, but it wasn’t enough to power the Yankees past the Red Sox.
Judge absolutely demolished a first-pitch fastball from Hunter Dobbins for a 436-foot (108.6 mph EV) opposite-field two-run shot that gave the Yankees an early 2-0 advantage. He also drew a one-out walk in the sixth inning and scored on a sacrifice fly off the bat of Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jude also pulverized a 1-2 fastball from Robert Stock for a 398-foot (108.9 mph EV) two-run shot in the ninth inning. The 33-year-old outfielder is having a season for the ages, slashing an utterly ridiculous .396/.493/.771 with 23 homers, 55 RBI and five stolen bases through his first 64 games.