Today's MLB PrizePicks player prop board has a few plays that I am keyed in on with notable matchups for the Astros Cristian Javier against the Rangers and Cardinals southpaw Zack Thompson making his major league starting debut against the Pirates. Once again, I suggest looking at the sportsbook such as BetMGM, DraftKings, or FanDuel to compare betting odds on props to the PrizePicks board. For example one of today's top plays is listed at -145 on the over and while that should not be the end all be all when it comes to your research it is certainly a nice indicator when used as part of your research. 

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PrizePicks Top Plays

 

Cristian Javier Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Strikeout ability is not the concern I have when it comes to Javier as the Astros starter has a 30.4% strikeout rate and boats a K/9 of 11.3 which are both elite-level numbers. The issue with Javier is his inefficiency. He tends to throw a lot of pitches and he walks a lot of hitters at a rate of 3.22 BB/9. Because he doesn't typically pitch deep into games we get a strikeout prop total that is much lower than most with his kind of strikeout upside. So, there is definitely some risk here that Javier throws 90 pitches in four innings and he gets taken out. That said, in his most recent start against the Rangers, he went six innings while striking out nine.  As a team, the Rangers' strikeout rate is quickly on the rise, with the fourth-highest strikeout rate over the past two weeks at 24.4%. Let's look for Javier to take advantage of the recently more free-swinging rangers and hope he repeats his most recent performance against them when he takes the mound tonight.

 

Zack Thompson Over 3.5 Strikeouts

Thompson made his major league debut earlier this month when he came out of the bullpen and pitched four innings against the Cubs, allowing just one run on three hits while striking out three. At the minor league level, Thompson has had mixed success this season, posting a 4.67 ERA over 10 starts but does have 56 strikeouts over 44.1 innings. The strikeout upside is where the intrigue lies for me today as he faces off against a Pittsburgh Pirates team that has a league-worst 32.8% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching over the past two weeks and overall this season they have the third-worst strikeout rate at 24.8%. This number actually opened at 4.0 strikeouts on PrizePicks this morning and is now down to 3.5. If you take a peek at the sportsbooks like BetMGM, DraftKings, and Caesars we see odds ranging from -140-to-150 on the over 3.5 strikeouts for Thompson today.  Let's see what the kid has in his first major league start. 

 

Taylor Hearn Under 88.5 Pitches

This is a pretty spot number for Hearn here today as he faces the Houston Astros for the third time this season. In his first meeting, Hearn threw just 84 pitches as he allowed four runs on five hits over five innings. In his second meeting, he threw 89 pitches while allowing four runs on six hits over 4.2 innings. Hearn has only gone over 88.5 pitches in four of his 11 starts this season but three of those outings have come in his last four starts. After struggling with lefties to open the season the Astros are starting to really hit southpaws, posting a .292 average and a .378 wOBA over the past two weeks.  Houston has already had success against Hearn this season and I look for them to get to him early enough in this game that he's gone before reaching his max pitch count. 

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