MLB DFS Value Vault July 12: Mitch White Provides Solid Upside Against the Cardinals
While we do have Coors Field to contend with tonight, we also get a 14 or 13-game MLB DFS main slate so there is no shortage of options out there. Weather is going to come into play tonight on the east coast so while that is another variable to contend with, our MLB weather page is ready to go as a resource. Leading up to lock, it is also important to keep an eye on the latest MLB news and MLB lineups. Now let’s take a look at some MLB DFS value options.
DFS Value Pitchers
Mitch White (LAD); DraftKings - $7,800; FanDuel - $6,900; Yahoo - $34
White is coming off a strong outing for the Dodgers in which he struck out six batters in 5.1 innings while only allowing one hit and one run (unearned). While White’s four walks were not ideal, he has managed to be solid on that front so far with 3.38 per nine innings while striking out close to a batter per inning. St. Louis played last night in Philadelphia so it is possible they are not at peak energy tonight and White has a solid 3.38 ERA through 40 innings so far this year. The strikeouts provide the upside and the right-hander has shown the ability to get out of trouble and avoid true trouble so far this year.
Corey Kluber (TB); DraftKings - $8,000; FanDuel - $8,400; Yahoo - $38
It is a tough night when it comes to value pitching so the thought process here is to go with the solidly priced option who has had a fair amount of success this season. Kluber is averaging 15 DK points in his last 10 starts and he takes a 3.62 ERA and 1.11 WHIP into tonight’s start against Boston. In his last start, Kluber threw six shutout innings while scattering just three hits, not walking a batter, and striking out five. Kluber’s ERA metrics (3.44 FIP) like the fact that he is only walking 1.43 batters per nine innings to go along with 7.9 strikeouts. With just a 6.9%-barrel rate, opposing hitters have not done the best job of squaring up on Kluber which also helps here.
DFS Value Hitters
Adam Duvall, OF (ATL); DraftKings - $3,300; FanDuel - $2,700; Yahoo - $16
David Peterson struggles against Atlanta and Duvall has had success in a small sample size against the left-hander so it could be a recipe for success for the outfielder. In six at-bats against Peterson, Duvall has four hits which include two doubles and a home run. The platoon advantage works for Duvall as six of his 10 home runs have come against southpaws (in 67 at-bats) so far this season and the batting average is also better here; .239 vs. 195. With a 23.1-degree launch angle, it is no secret what Duvall is trying to do at the plate and his 12.6%-barrel rate also helps here.
Willi Castro, OF/3B/SS (DET); DraftKings - $2,000; FanDuel - $2,300; Yahoo - $11
Let’s follow the BVP train here as Castro has gone deep twice in 11 at-bats against Kris Bubic with four hits in total. Castro is coming off a two-hit effort last night to bring his batting average up to .260 on the year. We get a slight advantage for Castro against southpaws, .278 compared to .254, and Bubic is simply bad all around with his 6.84 ERA (5.76 FIP) thanks in part to the fact that he walks close to six batters per nine innings while allowing 1.66 home runs per nine.
Jared Walsh, 1B (LAA); DraftKings - $3,700; FanDuel - $2,500; Yahoo - $9
Luis GarcÃa is a pretty solid pitcher but it is hard to ignore the success Walsh has had against the right-hander in his career. While the price on DK is reasonable for Walsh tonight, I had to do a double-take upon seeing his price on FD and Yahoo. In 19 plate appearances against Garcia, Walsh has five walks and is hitting .500 with two home runs and two doubles. With a .247 batting average on the season, Walsh is not doing much to stand out from the crowd, and a 30% strikeout rate does not help, but with 13 home runs and 40 RBI, there is some power and run production to work with here.
Leody Taveras, OF (TEX); DraftKings - $2,000; FanDuel - $2,500; Yahoo - $11
This is a case of riding the hot hand here as Tavares picked up three hits last night after going for two hits the night before. In facing James Kaprielian tonight, the Rangers are expected to score close to five runs so that means it should be another busy night for Tavares. In his last 10 games, 28 at-bats, Tavares is hitting .393 to bring his mark for the season up to .317 in 66 plate appearances.
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Alejandro Kirk finished 4-for-5 with a homer and two doubles to lead the Jays past the Cardinals 5-4 in 10 innings Monday.
The second double plated the go-ahead run in the 10th inning. It’s his seventh career four-hit game and first ever with three extra-base hits. All four of Kirk’s balls in play tonight left the bat at over 95 mph, upping his hard-hit rate to 57.3 percent. That puts him fifth place in the majors, right in between Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge. Alas, he’s much further down on the barrels list, which is why he has only four homers.
José BerrÃos shut out the Cardinals for 6 2/3 innings in a no-decision Monday.
BerrÃos left with a 3-0 lead that went to 4-0 before the bullpen wiped it out by giving up four runs in the bottom of the eighth. It’s pretty remarkable that he has recorded just two wins while giving the Jays nine quality starts and a 3.38 ERA over 82 2/3 innings this season. He’s pitching a little better than he did last season, when he finished 16-11 with a 3.60 ERA in 32 starts. If he matches up with Paul Skenes at any point, the score might go into the negatives. Next up, though, is a matchup with the Phillies and probably Zack Wheeler on Sunday.
Jeff Hoffman earned his 10th save with a perfect 10th inning against the Cardinals on Monday.
Hoffman had just one run to work with, so he had to prevent the automatic runner from scoring, which he accomplished by retiring the side on nine pitches. Although he’s given up a couple of homers along the way, Hoffman has converted six straight save chance since May 26.
Andre Pallante gave up two runs in six innings Monday in a no-decision against the Blue Jays.
Even if’s not a win, Pallante needed to show some improvement tonight and did so in lowering his ERA to 4.75. It’s Pallante’s first quality start in his last four tries and fifth in 13 outings overall. He’s set to pitch in Milwaukee this weekend.
Ryan Helsley took his fifth blown save after giving up a homer to the Jays’ Jonatan Clase in the ninth inning Monday.
It’s Helsley’s third straight blown save, though the previous two both still turned into Cardinals wins. This one didn’t, as Toronto prevailed in 10. We still can’t imagine his job is in jeopardy at the moment, though one more blown save might change that. Helsley has a 3.75 ERA, with three homers allowed and 28 strikeouts in 24 innings. It doesn’t seem like he’s far off at all.
Jonatan Clase went 2-for-4 with a game-tying homer in the ninth inning Monday against the Cardinals.
Clase tied the game off Ryan Helsley in the ninth, and the Jays went on to win after Alejando Kirk doubled in the automatic runner in the 10th. Clase’s homer was his first of the year. He was 0-for-14 in his previous four games coming into the night, and he hadn’t driven in a run since May 22. He’s likely to continue logging plenty time in center until Daulton Varsho returns, though it sounds like Varsho could be back from his hamstring strain a little earlier than originally thought.