MLB DFS Value Vault July 14: Jose Miranda Looks to Stay Hot at the Plate
Tonight’s slate is consistent across the board as DraftKings, Yahoo, and FanDuel will all have an 11-game main starting at 7:05 pm ET. This slate has some solid value options on offense with some hitters who are swinging hot bats like Jose Miranda and Leody Taveras. Another positive is that it appears that we have no serious MLB weather concerns to worry about, but still keep up with the weather center leading up to the first pitch. Lastly, don’t forget to check out MLB implied runs totals using our Vegas Odds link and to use our MLB DFS lineup generator. Let’s dive into our MLB DFS picks today!
DFS Value Pitchers
Carlos Carrasco, Mets (DraftKings - $7600 / Yahoo - $34)
Carrasco has pitched well in his previous two starts and will look to carry that momentum into this game against the Cubs. There is some risk involved here though and I would probably limit my exposure to GPPs. The Cubs are 16th in runs scored, so it’s not the worst of matchups by any means, but Carrasco has pitched much worse on the road this season, so that is a bit of a concern here.
Keegan Thompson, Cubs (DraftKings - $5800 / FanDuel - $7400 Yahoo - $35)
Thompson has a tough matchup against the Mets, but he has been locked in lately, with three games north of 26 DK points in his last five, including starts against tough matchups like the Braves and Dodgers. He has been far better at home this year with a 2.14 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, compared to a 4.40 ERA and 1.34 WHIP on the road.
DFS Value Hitters
Jose Miranda, Twins (DraftKings - $2800 / FanDuel - $2200 / Yahoo - $12)
Miranda has scored 16, 12, 18, 12, and 24 DK points over his last five starts He is slashing .355/.412/.677 over his last 10 games with three home runs and 12 RBI. He is now hitting .266 with eight home runs through his first 53 games in the bigs. Cueto is a tough matchup, but Miranda is swinging such a hot bat that I am not entirely sure it matters. He’s also been slightly better at home this season and should make for a good play today.
Nolan Jones, Guardians (DraftKings - $2000)
Jones has cooled off a bit from a hot first couple of games in the bigs, but he’s still hitting .350 with a home run and eight RBI through his first seven games with the Guardians. Today he gets to face a terrible righty in Rodriguez, who has an 11.51 ERA and 1.82 WHIP through his first 20.1 innings this season with a .326 batting average against. At the minimum price on DK, you can expect Jones to be a very popular play in this matchup.
Leody Taveras, Rangers (DraftKings - $2100 / FaDuel - $2600 / Yahoo - $13)
In yesterday’s playbook, I wrote “Taveras has scored 10, 28, and 21 DK points over his last three games, going 7-12 with four doubles, two steals, four RBI, and five runs scored in that span.” He proceeded to go 1-3 with two RBI, a run, and a stolen base to score 14 points on DK. We are going to continue to ride the hot bat as he has another good matchup on tap today against Gonzales, who has a 1.44 WHIP and .263 BAA on the road this season.
Josh Lowe, Rays (DraftKings - $2300 / FanDuel - $2300 / Yahoo - $9)
Lowe has started producing at a higher level lately with a home run and 11 R+RBI over his last 10 games. He has scored at least 6 DK points in four straight games too. Today he gets to face Crawford, who has a 4.50 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Lowe has done all of his damage against righties this year, slashing .210/.259/.371 against righties with two home runs, nine other extra-base hits, and two steals, compared to .100/.126/.100 against lefties (34 PA) with ZERO extra base-hits and zero steals.
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Alejandro Kirk finished 4-for-5 with a homer and two doubles to lead the Jays past the Cardinals 5-4 in 10 innings Monday.
The second double plated the go-ahead run in the 10th inning. It’s his seventh career four-hit game and first ever with three extra-base hits. All four of Kirk’s balls in play tonight left the bat at over 95 mph, upping his hard-hit rate to 57.3 percent. That puts him fifth place in the majors, right in between Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Judge. Alas, he’s much further down on the barrels list, which is why he has only four homers.
José Berríos shut out the Cardinals for 6 2/3 innings in a no-decision Monday.
Berríos left with a 3-0 lead that went to 4-0 before the bullpen wiped it out by giving up four runs in the bottom of the eighth. It’s pretty remarkable that he has recorded just two wins while giving the Jays nine quality starts and a 3.38 ERA over 82 2/3 innings this season. He’s pitching a little better than he did last season, when he finished 16-11 with a 3.60 ERA in 32 starts. If he matches up with Paul Skenes at any point, the score might go into the negatives. Next up, though, is a matchup with the Phillies and probably Zack Wheeler on Sunday.
Jeff Hoffman earned his 10th save with a perfect 10th inning against the Cardinals on Monday.
Hoffman had just one run to work with, so he had to prevent the automatic runner from scoring, which he accomplished by retiring the side on nine pitches. Although he’s given up a couple of homers along the way, Hoffman has converted six straight save chance since May 26.
Andre Pallante gave up two runs in six innings Monday in a no-decision against the Blue Jays.
Even if’s not a win, Pallante needed to show some improvement tonight and did so in lowering his ERA to 4.75. It’s Pallante’s first quality start in his last four tries and fifth in 13 outings overall. He’s set to pitch in Milwaukee this weekend.
Ryan Helsley took his fifth blown save after giving up a homer to the Jays’ Jonatan Clase in the ninth inning Monday.
It’s Helsley’s third straight blown save, though the previous two both still turned into Cardinals wins. This one didn’t, as Toronto prevailed in 10. We still can’t imagine his job is in jeopardy at the moment, though one more blown save might change that. Helsley has a 3.75 ERA, with three homers allowed and 28 strikeouts in 24 innings. It doesn’t seem like he’s far off at all.
Jonatan Clase went 2-for-4 with a game-tying homer in the ninth inning Monday against the Cardinals.
Clase tied the game off Ryan Helsley in the ninth, and the Jays went on to win after Alejando Kirk doubled in the automatic runner in the 10th. Clase’s homer was his first of the year. He was 0-for-14 in his previous four games coming into the night, and he hadn’t driven in a run since May 22. He’s likely to continue logging plenty time in center until Daulton Varsho returns, though it sounds like Varsho could be back from his hamstring strain a little earlier than originally thought.