MLB DFS Value Vault June 23: Jesus Aguilar Swinging a Hot Bat
Today's slate is inconsistent across the board as DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo will all be using different slates, but are all starting at 12:10 pm ET. DraftKings is using a six-game slate, FanDuel is using a seven-game slate (adding the Mariners vs. A’s game), and Yahoo is using a full all-day 10-game slate. I will be honest — the value plays on this slate, specifically on the mound, are not great. Really, the pitching on this slate is just pretty bad in general.
On the bright side, it appears that we have no MLB weather concerns to worry about, which is amazing, but still keep up with the weather center leading up to first pitch. Lastly, don’t forget to check out MLB implied runs totals using our Vegas Odds link and to use our MLB DFS lineup generator. Let’s dive into our MLB DFS picks today!
DFS Value Pitchers
FanDuel - $8600 / Yahoo - $32
Alex Wood has been pretty steady, scoring double-digit DFS points in five straight. He has a 4.32 ERA with five wins and 64 Ks across 66.2 innings of work. Surprisingly, he’s been better on the road this season with a 4.25 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, compared to a 4.40 ERA and 1.44 WHIP at home. The Braves are a tough team to limit the damage against, but they have the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball, which means there is a lot of upside in facing them.
DraftKings - $6100 / Yahoo - $31
Zach Plesac isn’t an amazing pitcher by any means and his low strikeout rate (44 punch-outs in 67.1 innings) limits his upside a bit, but he can get the job done at this price tag. The Twins are a pretty mediocre offense as they are 14th in runs per game this season, so it’s not the scariest of tests. With how cheap Plesac is on DraftKings, it won’t take too much for him to provide decent value as your SP2.
DFS Value Hitters
DraftKings - $2600 / FanDuel - $2800 / Yahoo - $13
Jesús Aguilar is swinging a hot bat right now, slashing .293/.293/.561 over his last ten games with three home runs and 15 total R+RBI, bringing his totals for the year up to a .256 average with nine home runs and 53 total R+RBI in 60 games. He has been far better at home this year, slashing .313/.344/.443 in Miami, compared to .196/.266/.402 on the road. And on top of all that, he has crushed this head-to-head matchup, going 6-for-11 (.545) with THREE home runs against Freeland in his career.
FanDuel - $2600
Patrick Wisdom had a huge game last night, going 2-for-4 with a home run, four RBI, and two runs scored. He has homered in back-to-back games and scored at least 27 FanDuel points in both. He has been much better on the road this season, slashing .243/.339/.505, compared to .212/.295/.441 at home. Wisdom has also been a completely different hitter against southpaws this year, slashing .274/.357/.516 against lefties, compared to .210/.300/.455 against righties. I wouldn’t be surprised if he makes it three straight games with a dinger today.
FanDuel - $2600 / Yahoo - $11
Oscar Gonzalez has been very impressive thus far in the big leagues as he is slashing .337/.367/.511 through his first 23 games in the majors with two home runs (both of which have come in the past three games – worth noting), TEN doubles, and 23 total R+RBI. Right-handed bats have accounted for ALL seven home runs that Semltzer has given up this season as well as ALL four doubles. This is good spot for Gonzalez to keep his momentum going.
DraftKings - $2500 / FanDuel - $2400 / Yahoo - $12
While I do like Plesac today as a value arm, I think Alex Kirilloff is a very solid play at this price if you are fading Plesac. Kirilloff was recently called back up to the Twins and over his last four games, he is 5-for-16 (.313) with three doubles, five RBI, and two runs scored. He has scored at least five DraftKings points in all five of those games. Plesac isn’t some big-time pitcher and he is prone to some damage, so it wouldn’t surprise me if Kirilloff stays hot today.
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Carlos Narváez went 2-for-4 and clubbed a three-run homer on Sunday night, propelling the Red Sox to an 11-7 victory over the Yankees.
The 26-year-old backstop crushed a 372-foot (101.0 mph EV) three-run shot off of Carlos Rodón in the sixth inning that turned a 3-2 deficit into a 5-3 advantage for the Red Sox. Narváez also drew a walk and singled in the ballgame. On the season, he has slashed a respectable .282/.361/.459 with six homers and 22 RBI in his first 191 plate appearances.
Kristian Campbell launched a two-run homer on Sunday night, helping to lead the Red Sox past the Yankees in New York.
The 22-year-old rookie infielder tagged Yankees’ starter Carlos Rodón for a 349-foot (99.0 mph EV) two-run shot in the fifth inning that tied the game at two runs apiece. It was just his second home run since April 29 and first since May 13. Campbell also drew a walk and singled in the ballgame, finishing the night 2-for-3. On the season, he’s now slashing .233/.323/.364 with five long balls, 20 RBI and two stolen bases in 234 plate appearances.
Rafael Devers went 1-for-4 with a solo homer and a pair of runs scored on Sunday night as the Red Sox bested the Yankees in New York.
Devers did his damage in the ninth inning, crushing a leadoff 393-foot (111.2 mph EV) solo shot off of Brent Headrick that extended the Red Sox’ advantage to 10-5. He was also hit by a pitch in the sixth inning and rode home on a three-run shot by Carlos Narvaez. The 28-year-old slugger is now slashing a healthy .283/.407/.522 with 14 homers and 57 RBI on the season.
Aroldis Chapman picked up his easiest save of the season on Sunday, recording the final out against the Yankees to protect a four-run advantage.
That out came after Robert Stock had given up a couple of runs at put another couple of runners on with two outs, putting the tying run in the on-deck circle. That’s when Red Sox’ skipper Alex Cora turned to Chapman to end the threat. The 37-year-old southpaw needed just three pitches to strike out Anthony Volpe to end it. On the season, he sports a brilliant 1.71 ERA to go with a 35/9 K/BB ratio over 26 1/3 innings and 11 saves in his first 12 chances.
Hunter Dobbins picked up his third victory of the season on Sunday evening, limiting the Yankees to three runs on four hits over his five innings of work.
The 25-year-old right-hander surprisingly did not walk or strike out a batter in the ballgame. He served up a mammoth two-run homer to Aaron Judge before he had even recorded an out in the contest, but settled in nicely afterwards and allowed just a solo shot to DJ LeMahieu in the fifth the rest of the way. Dobbins got four whiffs on 64 pitches on the night, posting a CSW of 28 percent. Now 3-1 on the season, he’ll tote a 4.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and a 37/10 K/BB ratio (49 1/3 innings) into a rematch against the Yankees on Saturday evening at Fenway Park.
Aaron Judge went 3-for-4 and clobbered his 22nd and 23rd home runs of the season on Sunday night, but it wasn’t enough to power the Yankees past the Red Sox.
Judge absolutely demolished a first-pitch fastball from Hunter Dobbins for a 436-foot (108.6 mph EV) opposite-field two-run shot that gave the Yankees an early 2-0 advantage. He also drew a one-out walk in the sixth inning and scored on a sacrifice fly off the bat of Jazz Chisholm Jr. Jude also pulverized a 1-2 fastball from Robert Stock for a 398-foot (108.9 mph EV) two-run shot in the ninth inning. The 33-year-old outfielder is having a season for the ages, slashing an utterly ridiculous .396/.493/.771 with 23 homers, 55 RBI and five stolen bases through his first 64 games.