We’ve made it to arguably one of the best racing days of the year! The Sunday before Memorial Day always delivers plenty of action for fans of motorsports. We kick it off with F1’s Monaco Grand Prix in the morning. After that we head to Indianapolis for the Indy 500 and then at night we get the longest race of the NASCAR season in terms of mileage, the Coca Cola 600.

Overall, between all three races we get over 1,200 miles of racing. Hopefully this year isn’t as much of a disappointment. Last year’s Coca Cola 600 could not catch a break with the weather and they were only able to run 249 laps. And we once again have the drama of Kyle Larson attempting to run both the Indianapolis 500 and the Coca Cola 600. It’s going to be a great weekend and we also had the Craftsman Truck Series and NASCAR Xfinity Series in action so we’re in shape for some bank roll building! Let’s take a look at this week’s NASCAR DFS Picks and lineup building strategies for the Coca Cola 600!

 

 

 

There’s no bigger race on the schedule than the Coca Cola 600. Sure, the Daytona 500 is the Super Bowl for NASCAR as it kicks off each season. But in terms of mileage and time, no race holds a candle to what we will see Sunday night.

Charlotte Motor Speedway is your typical 1.5-mile intermediate track. So we can pull data from comparable tracks like Vegas, Kansas, and Texas while also incorporating Darlington, Homestead, and Michigan. It’s a bit more technical and narrow than some of the other intermediates and that does making entry and exit of each turn a bit more of a challenge. This is the only race on the schedule where we’ll see 400 laps on an intermediate track which add up to 600 miles.

This race is incredibly long as it’s the only race with four stages each year. The stages are broken into 100 lap segments. This can be a difficult race on rookies and inexperienced drivers who may not be used to the length and endurance required to survive this track. And another thing to account for will be how the track changes and cools off. Pending any weather concerns, this race will go green with about two hours of daylight left but it’ll end well after dark.

 

 

 

Charlotte Motor Speedway Trends

With so many laps on the table it’s easy to see why we usually have two drivers lead at least 50 laps each while one driver typically leads over 100. Last year we didn’t see anybody lead that many laps but the 2024 version of the Coca-Cola 600 also couldn’t make it to lap 300.

In the NextGen era there have been 22 drivers in three races that gain at least 10 spots in position differential. Given how qualifying played out on Saturday, we may see a hefty amount of comers and goers for Sunday night’s race.

The big thing that sticks out to me is the winner’s starting spot. In each of the last five Coca-Cola 600’s the winner has come from inside the top 10. From a DFS angle, this just further hammers home getting exposure to drivers starting in the first five rows. With 400 laps on the docket, we want win equity, but we also want to give ourselves a chance to procure as many dominator points as possible.

 

 

 

NASCAR DraftKings and FanDuel Scoring Trends

It is a little surprising to me that for a race with so many laps, and from the trends table above, it’s surprising that there are just a few starting spots above the red line(s). When we consider the amount of big movers regarding place differential, I’m somewhat shocked there aren’t bigger scores above the red average line from the deeper starting spots.

We shouldn’t be too shocked by the polesitter scoring so well. Based on how qualifying played out, we should expect someone from the first two rows to score very well due to dominator points. But at the end of the day they also need to finish well.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: Coca-Cola 600

I did compile the practice-to-qualifying table for this race, but we should be aware of some caveats. I do mention this below, but as fast as Ross Chastain was on Saturday, he will be going to a backup car. Additionally, Kyle Busch is nowhere to be found in terms of practice speed simply because he had a steering issue that kept him on pit road for most of his practice group.

We also need to be mindful that when they practiced on Saturday it was in the afternoon on a hot, slick track. A few drivers complained about the lack of grip. But this race will be run at night. The conditions will be cooler and there will be more dense air to help with down force and front grip.

Should we throw this table out the window? No because I am intrigued by some cars based on Saturday’s practice and qualifying efforts. But we also have the 2023 “humidity” narrative in play that does aid all the Fords in the field. So some cars that looked bad on a hot, humid track at least have a shot at being much improved for this race.

 

 

 

Coca-Cola 600 DFS Picks

Kyle Larson – DraftKings: $11,500 | FanDuel: $14,000

It’s fascinating how the field will handle exposure to Kyle Larson. On the one hand this is an intermediate track and he tends to dominate these races. As far as this year goes he’s already won at Homestead and Kansas and he won the Coca-Cola 600 back in 2021, the year he won the NASCAR Cup Series Championship.

But for the second straight year he is attempting to run “The Double” after an unsuccessful effort last year. And he’s spent a lot of time preparing and practicing for the Indianapolis 500 the last two weeks.

So how am I approaching it? I’m still playing him. I don’t want to overthink it. He’s one of the best drivers in the world. I know his attention will be 100% on Indianapolis Sunday afternoon. But Sunday night when he’s in the helicopter on the way to Charlotte, he will be focused and ready for this race. My decision is also a little bit easier when you consider the fact he qualified P2 and starts on the front row with a chance to lead early laps and possibly win Sunday night.

William Byron – DraftKings: $10,500 | FanDuel: $11,500

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Byron qualified P3. He’s qualified 5th or better over the last five races on Charlotte’s oval. Byron also has a leg up on some other drivers because he ran Saturday’s Xfinity Series race and won. But to be fair the car and track conditions are obviously different for the Coca-Cola 600.

Byron finished third in this race a year ago and was the runner-up to Ryan Blaney in 2023. Across both those races he led 140 laps and keep in mind, last year’s race was shortened due to weather. All in all, Byron’s finished fourth or better in three of the last four Coca-Cola 600’s.

I am a bit surprised he hasn’t won a race since the Daytona 500 to kick off the year. But he’s had some inspiring runs on intermediates. He had that phenomenal run at Darlington where he finished second but led over 240 laps. The practice speeds looked okay but unfortunately he ran in Group B and none of those drivers registered a 25-lap run.

Ryan Blaney – DraftKings: $10,200 | FanDuel: $12,000

Well well well… Look what we have here. Ryan Blaney starting P21 after posting some modest lap times in practice. We mentioned it earlier in the article but the track conditions for this race will be much different from what we saw Saturday afternoon.

It’ll be cooler and rather humid Sunday night. So cooler temps and more dense air will aid the downforce for all the Fords in the field. Remember this race two years ago? Team Penske and the Fords were struggling in non-drafting races heading into Memorial Day Weekend. Then came the Coca-Cola 600, a night race. Blaney won the race with 163 laps led.

Blaney has been dealing with a ton of bad luck this year and his teammates have already gone to victory lane. For Sunday night I’m thinking the 12-car will get better and better as the race progresses.

Tyler Reddick – DraftKings: $10,000 | FanDuel: $12,500

The top tier is pretty tough for Sunday’s race. There’s a lot of chalk and popular options in the mid-range and value options so it does help to diversity who you play at the top. I do like Reddick because he is fairly consistent at the Coca-Cola 600.

He as an average finish of 5.0 in the NextGen era and that includes a pair of top five finishes with 23XI Racing. Similar to Byron and Blaney he ran in Group B during practice and nobody registered a 25-lap run. But Reddick didn’t even get a 20-lap run in. I’m not too worried because among those in Group B he was top three in 10-and-15-lap metrics.

Reddick’s had a pretty quiet season, but he looked great on the higher tire wear intermediates (Homestead and Darlington). For Charlotte we’re going to rely on the track history and plug him into our lineups as a secondary dominator that starts outside the top 10. He certainly can move up and hopefully that speed in practice carries over to the much longer runs Sunday night.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Ross Chastain – DraftKings: $9,000 | FanDuel: $9,000

Go ahead and lock Chastain in for Cash games as he starts dead last and offers a very safe floor with a very good ceiling. On DraftKings, Chastain can return 5X value if he just finishes 19th with no dominator points.

Chastain posted great practice speed in Group A, and if we’re being honest, all of Trackhouse looked sporty. But we have to hope that Chastain’s backup car is just as good. Chastain spun and hit the wall pretty well during practice and thus we couldn’t see where he’d qualify. So with the backup car he’ll be last but I don’t think the team will have any trouble matching the setup because SVG and Daniel Suarez also looked decent in practice.

In the NextGen era Chastain has finished 8th, 22nd, and 15th in the Coca-Cola 600. If he can just chip away and move up as the race plays out, he should have no trouble paying off this price tag while logging a couple fastest laps.

Chase Briscoe – DraftKings: $8,400 | FanDuel: $7,200

So Briscoe obviously lands in the Playbook because he’s on the pole and has a path to early dominator points. However, I had written him up earlier in the week just to get a jump on this article and this is what I came up with:

“I get the sense Chase Briscoe will fly under the radar for this race but there are a few reasons why I like him. Heading into the All-Star Race we saw him finish 4th at Kansas and this was after he logged another top five finish at Homestead. Sure, the performance hasn’t been consistent all year, but we know this is still a Joe Gibbs Racing car and Briscoe is a winner in this series, which we can’t say for everybody at JGR (small jab at Ty Gibbs). But another thing to be mindful of is the length of this race. It’s 200 more miles than we normally see at a typical 1.5-mile track. Briscoe and his team have gradually gotten better later into races and now they have an extra 133 laps to work with. I’m not predicting a win by any means but I really wouldn’t be shocked if this team made necessary adjustments as the race went on and was contending for another top five late into the night.”

Now that he’s on the pole he won’t fly under the radar as much, but Taylor Gray was on the pole for Saturday’s Xfinity Series race and he was roughly 20% rostered in tournaments. Briscoe will have to contend with Kyle Larson and William Byron starting in his proximity but if he can just somehow register maybe 15-20 dominator points and finish in the top 10 he has a shot to score very well.

Brad Keselowski – DraftKings: $7,600 | FanDuel: $7,500

Aside from maybe Kyle Larson, I don’t think any driver has made the Playbook this year as much as Brad Keselowski. And to that point, no driver has disappointed nearly as much as Brad Keselowski. He doesn’t have a single top 10 finish this season. He only has three finishes in the top 20.

Now has it just been slow cars and wrecks? Yeah there’s been a mix and you can say there’s been some bad luck. But at times there has been speed. Two weeks ago at Kansas, his car was incredibly fast and he was running second at the time of his wreck. Was it his fault? Yeah, maybe. It did seem like he knew he could run down the leader and he got a little excited and put it in the wall. And sure enough, he finished 37th.

On Saturday, he had another bad qualifying effort. It is what it is. But he was very good in practice. More specifically, he was phenomenal in the long run. Over a 400-lap race, if he can just keep it clean, he is among the Ford camp that’ll benefit from the humidity and cooler temps. I’m fine playing him in Cash games, but this is once again potentially another leverage spot to fade the 6-car and see if the bad luck streak continues.

I do want to acknowledge some drivers like Ty Gibbs, Alex Bowman, and Josh Berry. I’m encouraged by the practice speeds (especially for Gibbs) but I want to keep all three in mind for Tournaments. Keselowski is going to be wildly popular once again. But Gibbs looked great in Group A. Bowman looked great in Group B. Berry didn’t look great in practice but again, he’s in a Ford and his team has been very good on intermediates this year.

Bubba Wallace – DraftKings: $7,300 | FanDuel: $7,800

Bubba was probably going to make the Playbook regardless of where he qualified. Honestly, the price tag on DraftKings is just way too soft. In three of the last four Coca-Cola 600’s he’s finished 14th or better.

Bubba is also better on high-speed intermediates while he continues to progress on short tracks as well. He looked great at Homestead earlier this year but wrecked in consecutive weekends at Texas and Kansas. DraftKings is simply dragging the price down because of his DFS scores. But this is a good value for a driver in pretty solid equipment. And as is the trend for a few drivers in this range, he’s a great PD option.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Carson Hocevar – DraftKings: $7,200 | FanDuel: $6,800

Cash games are going to be somewhat stupid for this race because there are so many options to choose from starting deep in the field. Hocevar is certainly one of them. He got loose on his qualifying lap but had a nice save to avoid damaging the car. He’ll start P39 next to Chastain, who we mentioned above.

Hocevar put down the fastest lap in practice and was top five in 10-lap averages. Again, I will emphasize that track conditions will be vastly different. But hey, speed is speed, isn’t it?

Hocevar does have five finishes of 30th or worse this year and that’s a bit of an eyesore. More recently, he finished 26th at Kansas which is a fairly comparable track to Charlotte. But he is an aggressive driver and he’s so affordable and starts deep enough in the field that he may just be optimal if he can finish 18th.

Ryan Preece – DraftKings: $7,100 | FanDuel: $6,500

A couple drivers really jumped off the page for me when I was building the charts up above and working on Projections for Sunday’s race. When compiling data I looked at every race since the start of 2023 at Charlotte, Darlington, Homestead, Kansas, Vegas, Texas, and even Michigan. I was able to generate a 25-race sample size. And what blew my mind is that Ryan Preece, in these 25 specific races, has gained 9.9 spots of position differential on average.

Now Preece is a driver who has historically qualified towards the back. Already this year he’s qualified P25 or worse in 7-of-12 points paying races (8-of-13 if we count Sunday’s race). The performances this year on the high-speed intermediates have stood out. He finished 3rd at Vegas, 9th at Homestead, and 7th at Kansas. Now he does have a pair of bad performances at Darlington (finished 26th) and Texas (wrecked and finished 29th). But alas, we are able to save some salary here with a driver who can move up and score well.

One thing I am a little hung up on is that for this specific race, the track history isn’t really on his side. He has just one top 20 finish here in six Coca Cola 600’s and that came two years ago. Not to mention, it just seems like RFK Racing has the absolute worst luck nowadays. But he has a trio of top 10 finishes on intermediates this year and I want to make sure he’s included in some of my lineups. And as we mentioned with Ryan Blaney, the cooler weather and humidity should benefit all the Fords as the race runs longer into the night.

Daniel Suarez – DraftKings: $6,900 | FanDuel: $6,200

I’m very intrigued by Daniel Suarez. Trackhouse Racing looked really good in practice but qualifying didn’t necessarily go their way. Suarez put down a top 15 single lap and was also good enough in the long runs as well, where he was top seven in Group A in the 20-lap metric. 

Track history isn’t necessarily on his side. In three NextGen races here he’s finished 23rd, 24th, and 25th and that’s unfortunately right around where he starts.

The good news is that you really only need to consider him for Tournaments. There are so many PD options available starting further back that you can probably avoid Suarez in Cash games. But because of all those candidates for tournaments, Suarez may not carry a ton of ownership so we may get a competitive value option at low ownership.

Shane Van Gisbergen – DraftKings: $5,300 | FanDuel: $3,000

There are pro’s and con’s here and I do not believe you’ll need to force him into your lineups on FanDuel. But as I already mentioned, Trackhouse Racing looked pretty good on Saturday. Even SVG, who is a road course specialist, looked fast. Moreover, the broadcast team was mentioning how there are noticeable improvements with him on ovals (22nd at Texas and 20th at Kansas).

A big concern is just the length of this race. It’s 400 laps on an intermediate track. It’s the longest race of the year. Matt Selz and I used to mention on the old NASCAR DFS Podcast that we didn’t particularly like rookies or inexperienced drivers for this race. SVG certainly falls into the inexperienced category because this is his rookie season after all.

But for all the praise we just gave Daniel Suarez, SVG was arguably better in the same practice group. So don’t panic early on when he’s likely passed by Chastain, Keselowski, Wallace, and maybe even Connor Zilisch and Todd Gilliland. He’s the preferred punt play this week and he may not come with a ton of ownership.

 

 

 

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineups Picks This Week

Player Pool

$ Tier D
High Logo Kyle Larson
Coca-Cola 600Logo $14,000
Logo Denny Hamlin
Coca-Cola 600Logo $13,500
Logo Christopher Bell
Coca-Cola 600Logo $13,000
Logo Tyler Reddick
Coca-Cola 600Logo $12,500
Logo Ryan Blaney
Coca-Cola 600Logo $12,000
Logo William Byron
Coca-Cola 600Logo $11,500
Logo Chase Elliott
Coca-Cola 600Logo $11,000
Medium Logo Joey Logano
Coca-Cola 600Logo $10,500
Logo Ty Gibbs
Coca-Cola 600Logo $9,500
Logo Ross Chastain
Coca-Cola 600Logo $9,000
Logo Alex Bowman
Coca-Cola 600Logo $8,500
Logo Josh Berry
Coca-Cola 600Logo $8,000
Logo Bubba Wallace
Coca-Cola 600Logo $7,800
Logo Brad Keselowski
Coca-Cola 600Logo $7,500
Logo Chase Briscoe
Coca-Cola 600Logo $7,200
Low Logo Carson Hocevar
Coca-Cola 600Logo $6,800
Logo Ryan Preece
Coca-Cola 600Logo $6,500
Logo Daniel Suárez
Coca-Cola 600Logo $6,200
Logo Erik Jones
Coca-Cola 600Logo $5,200
Logo Todd Gilliland
Coca-Cola 600Logo $4,500
Logo Zane Smith
Coca-Cola 600Logo $4,000