NASCAR DFS Playbook: Tennessee Lottery 250
After a few weeks off, the NASCAR Xfinity Series is back for the Tennessee Lottery 250. The 2022 NASCAR schedule rolls through the Music City this weekend with all three series. From the looks of it, last night’s Truck Series race was profitable for some because of Max Gutierrez’s massive performance in the 22-truck. I do apologize for not updating the Playbook one last time but I wasn’t near my computer. I did update the Core Plays in Discord adding him back in after he was penalized and DraftKings adjusted his starting spot. But let’s focus on the Xfinity race for Saturday. Last year we saw Kyle Busch dominate this race leading 122 laps with a 149.7 driver rating. Busch is not in this year’s race as he doesn’t need the extra practice this time around. Tyler Reddick is back in the 48-car for Big Machine Racing so we should have him on our radar. But we’re getting to that point in the season where we see more teams either feel the pressure of needing a win to make the playoffs or they’ll safely try to secure a spot based on points.
Both the Xfinity and Cup Series got practice in yesterday and the results are posted below. Saturday’s race will definitely see more pit strategy than last night’s Truck Series race. Last night’s race had relatively even stage lengths, but today’s race will see everything broken into 45-45-98 lap segments and the fuel window is about 65-70 laps. Last year’s race only saw eight cautions for 46 laps which isn’t awful in my opinion but still worth accounting for.
As mentioned earlier, Kyle Busch dominated the race on his way to a win so he hogged most of the dominator points. But Austin Cindric did lead 53 laps with 14 fastest laps. Passing was a bit difficult and that could be the case once again on Saturday. Quite a few drivers across all three series have noted the difficulty in passing. We saw plenty of drivers gain ten spots of PD in last year’s race but there were only 8.1 green flag passes per lap. Targeting two dominators worked out last night for the optimal lineup and if you were brave enough to play both drivers on the front row then more power to you.
Driver Pool
Noah Gragson ($11,700) So I’m not going to write up Ty Gibbs ($11,300) separately simply because I’ve included a lot of names in today’s Playbook. But both Gragson and Gibbs are in play and I’ll be playing both. Qualifying could even put me more on Gibbs than Gragson. But as of this morning I’m partial to Noah. If you believe that Darlington is a great comparison for Nashville then you should have some concern for Gibbs. This is a very tight intermediate track where passing is difficult. Gibbs has struggled with Darlington but keep in mind he did win Vegas and Richmond. He’s Ty Gibbs. He’s in elite equipment and on a great team. He’s in play no matter what. But now I’ll focus on Noah. We’ve seen growth, development, and maturity for Noah this season. He's been great but likely carries more variance than Gibbs. Gragson either finishes top five or outside the top 20. Sure he was ninth at Portland but that race was stupid with all the weather and Jesse Iwuji spinning Ty Gibbs when he was multiple laps down. It was just that kind of day. There were too many variables in that race. We’ve seen Gragson lead at least 20 laps in eight races this year, so there’s dominator potential and win equity with him and Gibbs. If you want to take the slight discount with Gibbs, go ahead. I totally understand. Both were pretty fast in practice, which isn’t surprising at all. UPDATE: Gragson qualified P6 and Gibbs qualified P14 so I might flip my previous rankings and put Gibbs over Gragson but that's just me. The JRM cars do seem slightly “off” today but no reason to completely fade them.
Justin Allgaier ($10,800) Allgaier wasn’t a world beater by any means in practice, but he did showcase top ten speed. Truthfully, I think he might be one of my favorite dominator plays on Saturday. It’s quite possible he would’ve won this race a year ago if Kyle Busch wasn’t in it. But Allgaier finished second with a handful of dominator points. Depending on who you talk to, Nashville draws some comparisons to tracks we’ve seen Allgaier crush at. Consider Dover and Darlington, two tracks he was second and first at within the last two months. And keep in mind, in the four races leading up to the road race in Portland, Allgaier led 67 laps (Dover), 76 laps (Darlington), 33 laps (Texas), and 63 laps (Charlotte) on a variety of different tracks. If he returns to that kind of dominator form and finishes top five then he’s likely in the optimal build. If you want to get some exposure to Josh Berry ($11,000) you can certainly do that. He’s a dark horse candidate to win and get dominator points. His car was a bit off in practice, but we shouldn’t sleep on Berry even with an elevated price tag. UPDATED: Allgaier qualified P5 and Berry is starting P9. Like I said in Gragson's write-up the JRM cars look just a tough off but they're still among the best in the field. I still like both today and keep in mind this is Josh Berry's home track.
Tyler Reddick ($10,400) The last time we saw Reddick take the wheel for the 48-car for Big Machine Racing he scored the team’s first win back at Texas and prior to that he showcased great speed at Darlington where he was running second before putting the car in the wall with six laps to go. Not to mention we could see Reddick run the higher line along the wall since NASCAR applied resin and tire dragon closer to the wall so that may be an attempt to improve the quality of racing and we know Reddick enjoys running the high line especially at this track which does have a tighter turn radius. UPDATE: Qualified P18 so you have to assume he'll be chalky. Not discouraged by it at all. He's won in this car previously but I may just try to be slight underweight compared to the field in the event the equipment blows up or he puts this car in the wall.
A.J. Allmendinger ($10,000) Perfectly fine for Cash games because of the safe floor. He’s finished top ten in every race this year with the exception of Charlotte. There’s concern about the overall speed with the Kaulig cars, but all three were top ten in ten-lap averages during yesterday’s practice session. But in general, it hasn’t been a banner year for Kaulig aside from Allmendinger’s two road course wins. I’m not opposed to playing his teammates, Daniel Hemric ($8,400) and Landon Cassill ($8,200) because they’re priced in the mid-tier and if they offer PD and at least finish in the top 12 then they’re likely paying off. Hemric has flashed more consistency than Cassill but let’s see how qualifying shakes out to determine if we really need them. Hemric’s price tag specifically seems a little too generous for a driver who has posted 32 points on DraftKings in five straight races. UPDATE: Allmendinger qualified on the front row with a great lap. He openly discussed the team's struggles to find speed the last few weeks but his car looks fine. I may just prefer him in GPP's this week. He's still like for a top ten as he always is but he doesn't offer any PD.
Trevor Bayne ($9,700) The 18-car has been very fast no matter who is behind the wheel. Bayne led 24 laps at Auto Club, and 38 at both Phoenix and Atlanta. There’s been speed regardless of track type and sure enough he was fast in practice. I’m going to assume he qualifies this car in the top ten and is a dark horse dominator candidate. I do wish he was a bit cheaper, but we’ve seen him pay off this price tag previously. UPDATE: Qualified P3. Sign me up.
Sam Mayer ($9,200) We know as soon as Mayer notches a win the price tag will jump. We’ve seen how great he can be, he just hasn’t taken the car to victory lane this year. The car is consistently fast. Over his last nine races he has seven top five finishes. The two tracks he didn’t get a top five? Talladega, which we won’t hold against him because superspeedway racing is unpredictable. And the other was a very wet road race in Portland three weeks ago. In the races we’ve seen him finish in the top five he’s routinely posting 40+ points on DraftKings and if he can collect dominator points then he’s once again a great GPP play that is probably underpriced by a few hundred dollars. UPDATE: Mayer qualified outside the top 20 so you know he's going to be popular and rightfully so.
Ryan Preece ($8,900) Earlier in the year when Preece ran two other Xfinity races he was priced at $9,800 and $9,300. So why wouldn’t we get exposure when he’s under $9K after he came off his second win at Nashville in the Truck Series last night? And while this is a BJ McLeod Motorsports ride you have to assume it was prepared by SHR given Preece’s affiliation with the team. He grabbed a top five at Charlotte a few weeks ago in the same ride and he knows his way around the track. He was top ten in single-lap speed but also third in ten-lap average in yesterday’s practice. UPDATE: Preece will likely be chalky this afternoon since he qualified outside the top 20. He was actually having a good lap but got loose coming out of turns 3 and 4. It's not like the car was slow, he just lost control briefly and it cost him a good starting spot. That makes him a good play for us at least.
Riley Herbst ($8,100) This is a pretty nice discount on Herbst. Remember, he’s been very consistent this year. Sure, he didn’t pay off like we thought he would at Charlotte and he finished 35th at Portland. But that race was an absolute mess. Prior to Charlotte he was fifth at Richmond, sixth at Martinsville, ninth at Dover, and third at Darlington. Given the equipment (SHR) and his growth this year, this price tag seems a bit off and one that he should easily return value on if he doesn’t wreck on Saturday. He was top 15 in single lap speed in practice, but was eighth in ten-lap average. UPDATE: Herbst qualified on the pole for today's race. Likely takes him out of Cash games BUT if you think he can get dominator points and still finish well then he's in play. He's a good mid-range GPP target though.
Sheldon Creed ($7,900) It’s been a rough debut for Creed with RCR. In six of his last eight races he’s finished outside the top 20, but in the other two races in that span he was eighth at both Dover and Charlotte. He’s likely just a GPP play because he’s had some awful luck lately. But baked into the poor finishes of late are accidents at Talladega and Portland (in an absolute downpour). If you’ve followed Creed’s career dating back to the Truck Series, you know he’s better than what we’ve seen this season. And the equipment is among the best in the field. To top it all off he logged the fastest lap in yesterday’s practice and was sixth in ten-lap average. UPDATE: Creed qualified P19 which puts him in play. He seemed pretty upbeat during qualifying so it doesn't seem like the poor results are impacting him. He has the ability to finish in the top ten so I think he's okay in all formats. I am very interested in his teammate, Austin Hill. Hill qualified P4 but seemed to be one of the few drivers that didn't get loose coming out of 3 and 4 and looked like he actually gained speed in those spots.
Ryan Sieg ($7,700) Qualified P24 so he's very much in play. Has had some poor luck recently but if this tracks runs like Kansas or Darlington then he's a good play.
Anthony Alfredo ($7,600) You’re going to find out that I like the pricing on all three Our Motorsports drivers this week. Alfredo has shown up with speed almost every single week. The issue for Alfredo is that he’s wrecked out of the last three races on the Xfinity schedule. That might lower ownership, but it also doesn’t mean we should be running to be overweight on him. But he finished 15th at Dover and Darlington and was solid at Richmond and Martinsville. If he runs a clean race then he’s a good play by all means. But you can easily pivot to his teammates (listed below) to save money and get arguably more talented drivers in your lineup at a discount. UPDATE: He will likely be the most popular Our Motorsports driver this week given his PD. He's okay for Cash games, but I may be underweight in GPP's because he'll be a popular option in that format.
Alex Labbe ($7,200) I won't go too in depth on Labbe but there's a good floor here. He has top 15 upside, but i think he's more of a fringe top 20 play this week. He does offer PD and the price tag is fine. He qualified outside the top 30. He's okay for Cash games due to the floor he provides.
Brett Moffitt ($6,900) I’ll likely take heat for this one, but Moffitt is too cheap at under $7K. I know he hasn’t broken a slate by any means. But he has eight top 15 finishes this season, including solid runs at Darlington, Dover, Charlotte, and Phoenix. If it’s not a superspeedway or a road course I feel decent rostering Moffitt most weeks. As long as he doesn’t qualify too high I’ll likely land on exposure here once again and expect 30+ DraftKings points. UPDATE: Qualified P15 which is probably right around where he finishes, but he does have a higher ceiling than that. Would've loved more PD though. I think as a pivot you could go to Brandon Brown to save a little money and get more PD.
Jeb Burton ($6,600) As cheap as Moffitt may be, this is even more insulting for Burton. Moffitt and Burton are in the same equipment, but we’ve probably seen a higher ceiling from Jeb so he’s likely the preferred GPP target. Prior to the road race in Portland three weeks ago, Burton finished 16th at Dover, 14th at Darlington, 13th at Texas, and 12th at Charlotte. He was also top 12 at flatter tracks like Phoenix and Richmond. It just feels too cheap for Burton this week regardless of where he qualifies. UPDATE: Burton had a great qualifying run. He'll start P7 so it's tough to use him in Cash games, but you can still start him in GPP's and if he finishes around where he starts then he could be optimal.
Parker Retzlaff ($5,900) It’s been a hot minute since we’ve seen Retzlaff but we should remember this is a driver with top 12 upside and he’s under $6K. He’s in fairly decent equipment with Ryan Sieg’s team. Nashville is more of a “flat” track which is a comparison you can draw to the other tracks he’s run this year: Phoenix, Dover, Martinsville, and Richmond. Phoenix was the lone race where he finished poorly due to a wreck. However, he was 17th at Dover, 12th at Martinsville, and 10th at Richmond. I’m hoping most forgot about him, but we should re-acquaint ourselves with this kid once again on Saturday. If he qualifies outside the top 20 then he’s in play for all formats. But even if he qualifies well and starts a bit high I won’t write him off. We know he is capable of running in the top 12. If, for whatever reason, Retzlaff becomes chalk you can consider Kyle Weatherman and JJ Yeley in this range, but I’m not particularly excited about either. Qualifying could change that. UPDATE: Still a solid play. This is a track that's tough to pass at, but remember we're playing the long game. He's not a dominator and there's no win equity. But we've seen him move up and finish well previously and he qualified outside the top 20.
BJ McLeod ($5,300) McLeod is a smart driver. Does he have great finishes in his career? No, not really. But he runs in the Cup Series and typically finishes outside the top 20. He hasn’t raced in XFIN this year, but he can get PD. In four Xfinity races last year he started 37th or worse and gained at least nine spots of PD in each race. There was one race at Dover where he qualified P24 and still finished 21st for a respectable day. He’s running the 08-car since David Starr is sick and I honestly don’t hate this opportunity for him. I’m going to assume he starts pretty far back, but he should provide cheap PD as long as he runs a clean race despite being lapped.
Kyle Sieg ($5,200) Kyle Sieg’s luster has worn off a bit. He started the year very well but in three of his last five appearances in the Xfinity Series he’s posted six or fewer points on DraftKings. It also doesn’t help that those poor finishes have come on comparable tracks like Darlington (similar in terms of tire wire and length of track), Richmond, and Phoenix (two flatter tracks). He’s still shown he can put up 30+ points on DraftKings and the price tag is friendly for lineup construction. If he qualifies outside the top 25 then I’m very interested in getting exposure. UPDATE: Starting P28, that's good enough for me.
Josh Williams ($4,900) I haven’t written Williams up all that often in 2022 since he made the move to BJ McLeod’s team. It’s a downgrade in equipment based on where he was at a year ago. However, I’m not opposed to playing Williams if he starts outside the top 30. He’s posted 25 or more points in six races in 2022 so if he’s starting further back I don’t hate utilizing him if he means you can fit in multiple dominators.
Playbook will be updated with notes in red following Qualifying.
Example Lineups/Core Plays
Core Plays will be posted in the NASCAR DFS Discord channel no later than 3:00pm ET.