NBA Best Bets Today, 5/25: Picks, Predictions & Player Props - NBA Playoffs
The Minnesota Timberwolves gave a beatdown to the Oklahoma City Thunder that they have not experienced this postseason. An absolute unmerciful, taken behind the woodshed, spanking they won’t forget. 143 - 101 in a conference finals is embarrassing, but it was good for Fantasy Alarm.
The first quarter moneyline best bet on Minnesota was safe, as they outscored Oklahoma City 34 to 14. 14 was also the total points of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander which was easily a series low. He made one less free throw in game two then he had total points in game three. Just as we discussed in yesterday’s article, Gilgeous Alexander is not an elite scorer unless he is getting to the free throw line. The proof was in game three and the double unit wager was a winner.
The only issue was Minnesota’s offense was so good (or Oklahoma City’s defense was so awful) the under 215.5 points was not able to cash. Despite that Meatloaf has been served two days in a row, and both days including a double unit best bet that cashed. That brought yesterday’s profit to +1.88 units and we look to keep the Memorial Weekend momentum rolling!
NBA Picks, Predictions & Best Bets Today, 5/25
There are four cities across the United States of America that truly love their NBA team more than they love their city’s other professional teams. Two of them play tonight, and all three NBA best bets will come from their match.
Knicks vs Pacers Prediction: Indiana Pacers ML (-130 on Bet365) *BET OF THE NIGHT
The Indiana Pacers host the New York Knicks at Gainbridge Fieldhouse for what should be a thrilling game three. The Pacers come in with a major advantage after winning back to back games at Madison Square Garden. Now they are home, and have an opportunity to do something special, go up 3 - 0 in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Indianapolis 500 is this weekend, the Indiana Fever are the buzz of the sports world, and their beloved Pacers have an opportunity to cap it off by going up 3 - 0 on their playoff rival. The basketball city is riding a high they have not felt in over half a century. Can the Pacers seize the moment?
The expectation is for them to do just that. The Pacers might have been lucky in game one, but perhaps the New York Knicks were lucky to have Karl-Anthony Towns give them so much production. He has been inconsistent in the playoffs, and with Jalen Brunson asked to score more, Towns must find his rhythm in the mid range and three game.
Meanwhile Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, and Myles Turner have all been valuable scorers. They have proven to be too much for the Knicks to handle with Haliburton consistently finding the open player. Put a unit on the Pacers to win this game, it could be one point it could be by eleven points. Either way the moneyline offers a profit. Make sure to take advantage of the promotional offer at the end of this page as well.
Knicks vs Pacers Prediction: IND -0.5 1st Half (-105 at BetMGM)
The Indiana Pacers are a team that is hungry for the NBA Finals, of the four teams that were in the conference finals last year, Indiana is the closest to advancing to the championship series. Some say “there are levels to this”, this being winning an NBA championship, and as a general statement that is true. Michael Jordan, LeBron James, Nikola Jokic, Shaquille O’Neal, Hakeem Olujawan and others that are in the conversation of the greatest of all time, all lost series before adding NBA Champion to their resume.
There are also levels to any basketball game and almost all of them start with the first quarter. The first quarter can set the tone of the game, and the expectation is for Indiana to come out and ride the energy of what has been an emotional and action packed weekend for Indianapolis.
They have a starting unit that is in rhythm, a couple reliable bench players that are productive while in, and several players that can score when needed. They have been playing at this pace most of the season and the Milwaukee Bucks, Cleveland Cavaliers, and New York Knicks have shown how they collapse in the closing seconds of the game due to their fatigue.
Indiana is full tilt from tip off to closing buzzard, and they should look to mentally wear down the New York Knicks with that tempo. The first quarter at Gainbridge Fieldhouse should be one that has the crowd cheering and Knicks reeling. The home team has won the first quarter by two points in both games thus far, that should continue tonight for Indiana.
Put a unit on this best bet at BetMGM and make sure to take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s promotional offer for up to $1,500 in bonus bets.
Knicks vs Pacers Prediction: Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 Assists (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook) *2.0U
Tyrese Haliburton is having a playoff that can rival any former NBA Champion point guard. He committed just ten turnovers against the first placed Cavaliers, a team anchored by the 2025 Defensive Player of the Year. Paired with his protection of the ball was an average of 7.0 assists and 17.4 points per game in the Conference Semifinals. Against the Bucks he averaged 11.6 assists and 17.6 points per game while committing just 11 total turnovers. In this series he is averaging 11.0 assists and 22.5 points per game with just three turnovers.
He is not hesitant to pass to his teammates in crucial moments of the game, has an ability to identify the hot, scoring player and position them in an open field goal attempt. He is not a score-first point guard, but is not hesitant to score if his team needs it. He is everything a textbook point guard is supposed to be, with one of the best assists to turnover ratios in the league. He is averaging the same number of steals as he is turnovers in the Conference Finals which is remarkable.
With how well Pascal Siakam, Aaron Nesmith, Andrew Nembhard, and Myles Turner are playing it will not be surprising to see their numbers go up on their home court. Part of their numbers going up will be the assists from Haliburton who has 11 in each game thus far. His assists line offered at 9.5 is the smart play, as the odds for a double-double are heavily juiced. Put a unit on the over at FanDuel and take advantage of Fantasy Alarm’s offer for new customers to earn free bonus bets.
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Player News
Zach Edey (ankle) will be re-evaluated in four months after undergoing surgery on Tuesday.
Edey reinjured the left ankle that he sprained during the regular season, resulting in the center undergoing surgery to stabilize the area. The Grizzlies announced on Tuesday that the procedure was successful, and he will be re-evaluated in four months. With Edey not expected to be ready for the start of the 2025-26 season, Memphis can either slide Brandon Clarke into the starting lineup or move Jaren Jackson Jr. to the five as part of a smaller quintet. Edey’s surgery may also impact Memphis’s approach to Santi Aldama, who will be a restricted free agent next month.
Jarace Walker (ankle) is out for Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Wednesday.
Pacers coach Rick Carlisle said ahead of Sunday’s Game 2 that Walker was “not close” to returning, so Tuesday’s update is unsurprising. Obi Toppin has been Pascal Siakam’s primary backup throughout the season, but was ineffective in 19 minutes in Indiana’s Game 2 defeat. He’ll hold onto the role, also seeing a little time at the center position when the Pacers decide to go small.
Tyrese Haliburton said he’ll be “ready to go for Game 3" of the NBA Finals on Wednesday.
Haliburton was seen limping after Game 2, but he downplayed the severity of it. “I’m fine,” Haliburton said. “Really just a lower leg thing. I’ll leave it at that. I feel fine, and I’ll be ready to go for Game 3.” After being the hero in Game 1, Haliburton was solid in Game 2, but it wasn’t enough for the Pacers to steal Game 2 on the road. Still, the series is tied 1-1, and the Pacers have homecourt advantage for the rest of the series. We’ll see if Haliburton has more magic up his sleeve on Wednesday.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst believes Kevin Durant will be traded “in the coming weeks.”
The expectation that Durant will be moved this offseason has been around since the trade deadline. Reports from then indicated that Durant didn’t want to be traded in the middle of the season again, but they did shop him. The draft starts on June 25, and trade negotiations should heat up around then. There are multiple teams that would be interested in parting with assets to bring Durant in to help elevate their team to contention. Regardless of where he ends up, Durant will continue to be one of the best players in the league, and he should have the ball in his hands as much as he wants it.
ESPN’s Brian Windhorst reported that "[Giannis Antetokounmpo] has not asked for [a trade]” and that “The Bucks are not looking to trade him.”
Windhorst said this during an appearance on ESPN’s Get Up, and he also said that trade discussions haven’t happened. Reports from shortly after the Bucks lost to the Pacers in the first round indicated that Giannis would be “open-minded” about playing somewhere other than Milwaukee. That has led to plenty of rumors and mock trades over the past month, but there appears to be a scenario where Giannis remains with the Bucks and runs things back. They don’t have many pieces to build a contender around him, especially after Damian Lillard tore his Achilles during the playoffs. Still, this doesn’t mean there won’t be a trade. The offseason hasn’t even started yet. A lot could change over the next few weeks between the draft and the start of free agency.
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports that Darius Garland underwent surgery on a great toe injury and is expected to miss 4-5 months, which will likely include time to start the 2025-26 season.
Garland picked up the injury on March 23 against the Jazz and played through it before ultimately missing time. He missed four of the Cavs’ final seven games of the regular season and Games 1 and 2 of the first-round playoff series with Indiana, re-aggravating the injury in the process. If Ty Jerome re-signs with Cleveland this offseason, he’s the guy most likely to replace Garland in the starting five. Donovan Mitchell’s usage rate spiked when Garland sat and he’d appear to be in line for some big fantasy lines early in the season while Garland is sidelined.