MLB DFS Value Vault April 13: Kyle Hendricks Facing a Weak Pirates Lineup
Published: Apr 13, 2022
Happy hump day! Can you believe that we are almost a full week into the 2022 MLB season? It is Wednesday and that usually means early baseball. There is nothing better than watching baseball during the early afternoon especially when you have a fantasy interest and today is no different. It is easy to build a DFS baseball lineup full of big-name stars but the winning occurs in the trenches and finding that golden nugget of value that puts you in the DFS green. I’ve done some digging and here are my top plays in today’s DFS Value Vault.
Pitchers
$6.6K DK
Kyle Hendricks is a solid underpriced pitcher in today’s matchup against Pittsburgh. The Pirates have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball and were dead last in the MLB last season in slugging (.367) and home runs (93) against right-handed pitching. Hendricks put in a solid performance as the Cubs opening day pitcher as he held Milwaukee to one run on five hits in 5 1/3 innings. He was aggressive from the start walking three batters and striking out seven on 83 pitches. Hendricks was able to set the tone early by establishing his fastball which then allowed him to pay off of it with his changeup that generated 13 swing-and-misses. Hendricks is a better value on DraftKings at $6,600 and should be a popular SP2 in all formats.
$27 Yahoo
Merrill Kelly had a dominant spring training for Arizona and it followed him into the regular season when he threw four scoreless innings against the Padres. The Diamondbacks are full of optimism with their right-hander as his four-seam fastball is clicking (up 1.4 mph from last season to 93.1) and he arrived in the spring with an improved changeup that was near dominant in his start against San Diego. Kelly was the D-backs most consistent starter in 2021, leading the team with 27 starts while going 7-11 with a 4.14 ERA. The Astros are not a pushover offensively but have struggled out of the gate scoring two runs or less in two of their last three games. Kelly is a control pitcher (6% walk rate) and can stifle left-handed bats - .265wOBA/.110 ISO allowed with a low 32% flyball rate to that side in 2021-22. At $27 on Yahoo Kelly is worth a shot in GPPs.
Hitters
$2.9K FD
FanDuel did not get the Marcell Ozuna memo. Last night he was a near lock due to mispricing on all sites and didn’t disappoint with a two-home run game. He is now 8-for-17 with four doubles and two home runs over his past four games. DraftKings finally raised his price today to a fair $4,900 but the Braves sluggers still sits at sub $3K on FanDuel. Lock him in.
$3.1K DK / $2.9K FD
Ian Hap returned to the Cubs lineup yesterday after he exited Sundays game when he got hit in the knee by a pitch. That didn’t seem to bother him as he went 2-for-3 to add to a red hot start to his season as he is now 7-for-10 (.667 BA) with two doubles and 4 RBIs on the season. The switch-hitting Happ should be in the middle of the Cubs lineup today as he faces right-hander Zach Thompson of Pittsburgh. Happ is carrying a .246 ISO/.356wOBA with a 44.7% hard contact right against righties since 2021 and is in a good position to keep the hot streak alive. Far too cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
$3.7K DK / $2.5K FD / $11 Yahoo
Tyler Naquin a righty smasher. He gets paid to hit right-handed pitching hard and far. Since 2021 he has a .240 ISO/.369wOBA with 43.1% hard contact and today faces Tristan McKenzie who struggles against the left side of the plate with an xFIP of 4.85; a high 11.8% walk rate and an extremely high 46.8% flyball rate. Naquin is coming off a big day yesterday where he hit the first Great American BP home run of 2022- a 2-run blast that tied the game and ended up 2-for-3 with two RBIs and two runs. Naquin is now hitting .357 on the season and is in the spot where you play him in DFS – at home in one of the best hitting parks in MLB against a right handed fly ball pitcher that gives up hard contact (40.4%).
$4.3K DK / $3.0K FD / $16 Yahoo
The bad news- Max Muncy has struggled out of the gate. He has one hit on the year and that was last Friday night in Coors. The good news- his salary is at value or near value on all three sites. Muncy will break out of the slump and today may be the day as he faces right-hander Chris Paddack and the Twins bullpen. Muncy has always crushed right-handed pitching with near elite advanced metrics of a .268 ISO/.358wOBA with a 43% flyball and 44% hard contact. Paddack is a bit of a reverse splits pitcher but still gives up hard contact to both sides of the plate and doesn’t miss man bats (18.6% to left-handed hitters). Muncy is worth a shot and can bring back big dividends in GPPs on all sites this afternoon.
Player News
Max Muncy went 2-for-4 with two homers and three RBI in the Dodgers 6-5 win over the Mets on Tuesday.
Muncy has been on a tear at the plate as his home run barrage continued Tuesday. He took Tylor Megill deep for a two-run blast in the first inning, then later tied the game with a solo homer in the bottom of the ninth for his second round-tripper of the evening. The 34-year-old slugger is up to nine homers, five in his last seven games, while hitting .230/.350/.432 across 223 plate appearances.
Freddie Freeman went 2-for-5 with two doubles, two RBI, and a run scored against the Mets on Tuesday.
Freeman put the Dodgers on the board with a double in the first inning to bring home a run before scoring on a groundout. His next hit came in the bottom of the tenth. With two runners on and one out, he doubled off the left field wall to drive in the game-winning run. The 35-year-old first baseman is hitting an incredible .369/.435/.626 with nine homers, 34 runs scored, and 40 RBI across 214 plate appearances.
Juan Soto went 1-for-5 with a two-run homer against the Dodgers on Tuesday.
Soto took Clayton Kershaw deep for his only hit of the game, sending a two-run blast to right center field. It was Soto’s third home run in four games and his 11th on the season as he’s hitting .233/.361/.438 with 39 runs scored, 30 RBI, and seven steals across 269 plate appearances.
Huascar Brazobán gave up one run to blow the save chance against the Dodgers on Tuesday.
With Edwin DÃaz getting a breather after pitching in three of the last four games, Brazobán was summoned to close things out with a one-run lead in the bottom of the ninth. He surrendered a game-tying solo homer to Max Muncy before ultimately striking out the side.
Clayton Kershaw allowed five runs -- three earned -- with two strikeouts over 4 2/3 innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Tuesday.
Kershaw allowed a run in the first inning on a two base hits and a wild pitch. Juan Soto later took him deep for a two-run shot in the third. The Mets then brought two more unearned runs in on a walk, error, and two hits in the fifth before Kershaw’s day was done with two outs in the frame. He struck out two. The 37-year-old veteran left-hander will carry a 5.17 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, and an 8/9 K/BB ratio across 15 2/3 innings into a start against the Padres in San Diego on Monday.
Tylor Megill allowed four runs with seven strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers on Tuesday.
Megill was hit for four runs in the open frame, including two on a home run by Max Muncy. He recovered tremendously following the first inning, locking in for five more scoreless frames, striking out seven batters over six innings. The 29-year-old right-hander will take a 3.77 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and a 79/28 K/BB ratio across 59 2/3 innings into a start against the Rockies in Colorado on Sunday.