MLB DFS Value Vault May 3: Tyler Mahle Set to Blank the Brewers
Welcome to another edition of the DFS Alarm Value Vault where we bring you the top MLB daily fantasy value plays for your DFS lineups. Today, we have a huge night of DFS baseball on tap as DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo Fantasy all bring us 11-game slates starting 7:05p EST. There will be a large player pool to choose from as well as a matchup in Coors Field, so it’s our job to find the top point-per-dollar plays as well as minimum-priced punts to vault you past the competition. Don't forget to use the fantasy baseball lineup generator when building your DFS lineups! So, let’s get the vault open and see the top MLB value plays of Tuesday night.
MLB DFS Value Pitchers
$6100 - DraftKings / $9500 - FanDuel / $36 - Yahoo
Left-hander Bruce Zimmermann is drawing comparisons to a 2019 John Means in Baltimore. Just like Means did, he is fooling batters with a changeup-heavy arsenal en route to an amazing start to the season where he is 1-1 with a 0.93 ERA. He has also allowed zero runs in three of his first four games, with a 21:6 K:B across 19.1 innings. Tonight, he will be facing a Twins offense that is striking out 24.7% to left-handers with a .146 ISO and 107 wRC+. At $6100, Zimmerman is a steal on DraftKings.
$6600 - DraftKings / $7500 - FanDuel / $36 - Yahoo
Tyler Mahle was an extreme splits pitcher last year but not in the conventional righties vs. lefties way. He was a much better pitcher away from Great American Ballpark. At home, he was 5-4 with a 5.63 ERA; 1.48 WHIP and allowed 19 home runs. On the road, Mahle was 8-2 with a 2.30 ERA; 1.04 WHIP and only allowed five home runs. In this small 2022 season, it’s the same stadium (besides a hiccup at Dodger Stadium) where his best game of the year has been at Atlanta when he struck out seven in five innings with no earned runs.
Tonight, Mahle will be in Milwaukee facing a Brewers team that is striking out 23% to right-handers with one of the worst swinging strike rates in the game (12.7%). With a 27% strikeout rate and 4.17xFIP of his own, Mahle is worth a shot in GPPs as low-owned value.
MLB DFS Value Hitters
$2900 - DraftKings / $2800 - FanDuel / $10 - Yahoo
Don’t look now but the phenom Bobby Witt Jr. is heating up. The #1 prospect in the game struggled a bit out of the gate but has quietly put together a 10-game hitting streak. During this streak, he is batting .316 (12-for-38) with three doubles and two RBIs.
Tonight, he faces Dakota Hudson who has a 4.85 xFIP, walks batters (10%), and doesn’t miss many bats (18% K rate). With the way Witt Jr. is hitting, we should see the streak continue and his first MLB long ball is only around the corner.
$2800 - DraftKings / $2900 - FanDuel / $18 - Yahoo
Yadiel Hernandez is quietly one of the hottest hitters in baseball. The Nationals outfielder is slashing .340/.368/.509 with an OPS of .877. Over the last 7 days, he is hitting .350 and ruthlessly crushing the strong side of the platoon with a .366 wOBA and 40% hard contact against right-handers.
Tonight, he travels to Coors - the #1 hitter-friendly park in all of baseball. The matchup is not the greatest as Germán Márquez is a good pitcher but at the near-minimum price on all sites, Hernandez is worth a shot as a punt play in all formats.
$3900 - DraftKings / $2800 - FanDuel / $20 - Yahoo
Austin Meadows a value play? If he is under $4000, I consider it a value and Meadows is at one of his lowest price points of the year. The salary is a head-scratcher because Meadows has been solid at the plate slashing .319/.420/.406 with an OPS of .826.
Known as a righty-smasher in Tampa, the matchup doesn’t get much better tonight for Meadows. He has a near-elite .275 ISO/.369 wOBA with a 41.5% contact and 49% flyball rate while right-hander Bryse Wilson has been terrible for the Pirates. Wilson has a 4.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.46xFIP and isn’t missing many bats (14.1% K rate). Lock and load Austin Meadows tonight.
$2000 - DraftKings / $2500 - FanDuel / $15 - Yahoo
Chad Pinder is sitting at bare-minimum price tonight and you could do a lot worse, especially when he has the splits advantage over left-handed Ryan Yarborough who will be making his 2022 debut tonight for the Rays.
Pinder should be leading off and has solid platoon numbers against southpaws- .236 ISO/.345 wOBA with a 52.6% hard-hit rate. He is also on a little hot streak with three hits over his last six at-bats and has gone 5-for-11 with a home run, two RBIs and a run in the three days since returning from the COVID-19 list. Pinder is slashing .290/.283/.500 with a .783 OPS on the season.
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Mark Vientos has been diagnosed with a low-grade right hamstring strain and will be shut down from baseball activities for 10-14 days.
It’s the best-case scenario as Vientos will continue receiving treatment for the next two weeks before he’s ready to resume baseball activities. The 25-year-old third baseman is still facing a multi-week absence, but it sounds like there’s a chance he’s back before the end of June. It’ll be Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio handling the hot corner in his absence.
Sean Manaea (oblique) will make a minor league rehab start on Friday for High-A Brooklyn.
Manaea has been on the injured list since spring training working his way back from an oblique strain. The 33-year-old veteran southpaw will require several rehab outings to build up his pitch count and stamina before he’s ready to make his season debut. He could theoretically rejoin New York’s rotation before the end of June or in early July.
MLB commissioner Rob Manfred said Wednesday that he plans to introduce a proposal to the league’s competition committee that would implement the automated ball-strike system for the 2026 season.
The “robot umpires” are coming next year to a major-league ballpark near you. The ABS system has been used in the minors for several years at this point, including during big-league spring training games earlier this year, and is relatively straightforward. Human umpires will still make the usual ball-strike calls from behind home plate with each team getting two challenges per-game.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters Tommy Edman tweaked his right ankle a couple days ago.
It explains why Edman has missed two straight games this week, likely out of an abundance of caution. Roberts added that he’s day-to-day for now. It doesn’t sound like a massive concern, but speedy outfielder Esteury Ruiz, who has posted a solid .791 OPS with 16 extra-base hits and 27 stolen bases across 45 games this season for Triple-A Oklahoma City, is with the Dodgers on the taxi squad just in case.
Michael Kopech (shoulder) faced hitters on Wednesday in a live batting practice session.
It’s a bit unclear how close Kopech is to making his season debut, but he figures to be on the precipice following this latest throwing session. Los Angeles could certainly use his help in high-leverage spots. He’s been on the shelf since spring training working his way back from a shoulder impingement.
Angels signed RHP Carson Fulmer to a minor league contract.
Fulmer returns to Los Angeles, where he made a career-high 37 appearances (eight starts) last season, after being released earlier this week by the Pirates. The 31-year-old former top pitching prospect was cut loose after compiling a pedestrian 4.64 ERA across 42 2/3 innings (13 appearances, six starts) this season at the Triple-A level. He’ll likely make his way to the Angels’ bullpen mix at some point in the coming weeks as long relief depth.