PGA DFS Playbook: John Deere Classic

While Hadwin has not been to the John Deere classic since 2016, he did score finishes of 8th and 18th in his two trips to this event.  He is also playing good golf coming into this event placing 7th at the U.S. Open and has made four straight cuts.  He may only have one win in his PGA Tour career, this is a week he could pick up number two against a field like this one.  He ranks 30th in Greens in Regulation, 37th in Tee to Green and 43rd in Approach.  I also like to see on a week like this one, he’s Top 50 in both Scoring and Birdie average.

Denny crushed my soul last weekend at the Travelers with a missed cut.  I will not let that deter me from rostering her this weekend because he fits the mold.  Prior to last week, he had finished Top 10 in back to back starts including the U.S. Open.  While he has only made the cut once in three trips to the Quad Cities, I believe he makes it number two this weekend.  The former Virginia Cavalier is always one of the best putters on the PGA Tour which is why he maintains his tour card year in and year out.  McCarthy also ranks 20th in Scoring Average and 39th in Around the Green.  This is the field you should expect big things from him.

Back to back missed cuts should lower his ownership this weekend.  He finished Top 20 in his first trip here last season.  The 26-year-old has had a rollercoaster ride of a season but has two Top 10 finishes at the Fortinet (which had a similar field to this one) and the Genesis.  The stats are solid across the board, 20th in Birdie Average, 40th in Putting, 44th in Driving Distance, 49th in Scoring Average, 58th in Off the Tee, and 65th in Tee to Green.  While those may not look amazing, when you look at who he’s up against, they look pretty stellar.

When you talk about riding a hot hand, it doesn’t get hotter than Stallings who fired a closing round 63 at the Travelers to finish 8th.  He also scored a Top 5 at the Charles Schwab a month ago.  While he isn’t a guy you want to use on a regular basis, there are weeks that he can be very useful.  Scott has made the cut at this event four of his last five trips which includes a Top 5 finish in 2017.  He has always had a solid putting stroke and ranks in the Top 75 on tour in Approach, Driving Distance, Birdie Average and Scoring Average.  Again, remember the field we are working with this weekend, those are good numbers in comparison.  

Nick grew up in a suburb of Chicago less than 200 miles from the site of the John Deere Classic.  The 26-year-old burst on the DFS scene this season at the U.S. Open finishing inside the Top 15.  He backed that performance up with a Top 10 at the Travelers last weekend.  Strike while the iron is hot with this kid, you never know when he’s going to cool down.  Hardy ranks Top 20 in both Off the Tee and Greens in Regulation.  He’s also Top 80 in both Scoring and Birdie Average.  He participated in this event in 2018 and made the cut.

Todd is not a quitter and he proves that when you look at his track record at the John Deere Classic.  He missed the cut at this event five straight trips between 2009 and 2017 before making it in 2019 and finished Top 20.  The missed cut at the Travelers last weekend was a kick to the groin but he played better in round number two.  We know a few things to be true about this former Georgia Bulldog, he is one of the most accurate drivers and best putters on the PGA Tour.  He makes for a solid start this weekend.

The defending champion of this event has been playing better golf as of late making the cut in four straight events including a Top 25 at the PGA Championship.  The former Clemson Tiger just keeps plugging along with solid ball striking numbers this season.  He ranks Top 60 in Off the Tee, Approach, and Tee to Green.  Glover is also 13th in Driving Accuracy and 22nd in Greens in Regulation on the season.  He will be a popular pick this weekend.

If he didn’t just score a runner up at the Travelers, most people would have ignored him but here we are.  The good old boy from Hickory, North Carolina has looked good off the tee this season ranking in the Top 60.  He has missed the cut in his last two trips to the John Deere but when I look at this field, I’m looking for any bright spots I can find.  I think he’s a safe bet to make the cut but what he does on the weekend will be a total crap shoot.  

The dude is running hot right now.  He has made the cut in four of his last five starts with a Top 10 and two Top 20s.  Reavie has made the cut at the John Deere in six of his last seven trips with a Top 10 and two Top 20s.  Reavie can still keep the ball in the fairway off the tee, ranking Top 5 in accuracy and Top 60 in Approach heading into this weekend.  I’d trust him in your cash or GPPs this weekend.    

This 32-year-old Cali boy has had a nice run over the last month of the season.  He’s made three straight cuts with two Top 15s and a top 25 finish over that span.  Huh has also made the cut in four of his last five trips to the John Deere with a Top 10 in 2018.  While his only PGA Tour victory came over a decade ago, he has the tools to pick up his second this weekend against this field.  Huh ranks 22nd in Driving Accuracy and 80th or better in Around the Green, Birdie Average, Scoring Average, and Tee to Green.  I think he’s another safe bet to make the cut but the weekend is where it gets interesting. 

This nice Canadian boy is on a heck of a run right now.  The 28 year old has made the cut in five straight events with back to back Top 25 finishes at the Travelers and RBC Canadian.  Svensson is inside the Top 75 in several categories we like this weekend like Approach, Driving Accuracy, Greens in Regulation, and Birdie Average.  Here is a guy who can make the cut and make noise on the weekend.  He did participate in this event once before, in 2019 he finished Top 20.

Duncan has made the cut in three of his last four starts with a Top 20 finish at the Charles Schwab about a month ago.  I’ve talked about the importance of accuracy especially off the tee and he ranks 12th on the PGA Tour.  He ranks in the Top 80 (which seems high but when you look at this field, it’s not bad) in Off the Tee, Approach, Tee to Green, Greens in Regulation, Birdie Average and Stroke Average.  He has made the cut at the John Deere in two of his three trips with a 12th and 26th place finish.  I’d feel comfortable putting him in cash or tournaments. 

Nate is one of those boom or bust guys on the PGA Tour.  If he makes the cut, it’s usually a Top 25 finish.  Since the Puerto Rico Open in early March, he has made the cut seven of his 10 starts and all of them went for finishes of 27th or better including one Top 10.  He fits the mold perfectly for this event because he can go low.  He ranks Top 25 in Birdie Average and surprisingly Top 60 in Greens in Regulation, Driving Accuracy and Putting.  Lashley has been here one time before and he finished 26th in 2019.

Definitely not a guy who makes regular appearances in the playbook but here we are.  Prior to finishing 35th last week at the Travelers, he had missed four straight cuts.  Ryder has made the cut in all three of his trips to the John Deere including a runner up in his 2018 debut at this event.  When you look at his stats, the 32-year-old does not wow you with anything in particular but his putting has been stellar at TPC Deere Run and we saw some improvements in his ball striking last week at the Travelers.  

He seems to be a popular play this weekend especially at this price point and with good reason.  This will be his 15th trip to the John Deere and has made the cut 10 times with two Top 10 finishes.  Despite a down year for the 46-year-old, he has made the cut in eight of his last 10 starts.  He is never a sexy play in DFS but he’ll make the cut and then you just hope for the best over the weekend.

Did you know that Kraft has never missed the cut at the John Deere in four previous trips?  That includes a fifth place finish in his 2016 debut at this event.  Kelly has made the cut in four of his last five starts on the PGA Tour including Top 15 finishes at the Mexico and RBC Canadian Open.  Very similar profile to a guy like Brendon Todd, fantastic putter and very accurate driver.  Nothing is really safe in this price range but he should provide some stability in your lineups.

The 27-year-old has missed more cuts than he’s made this season and you’re probably saying why in the hell are you putting him in your playbook?  Well, when he does make the cut he usually finishes within the Top 35.  This is a week that you need birdie makers and he’s Top 25 on the PGA Tour in that category.  You also have to like that he’s Top 50 in putting.  It will be a bumpy ride but if he makes the cut, it could be a lucrative one for everyone involved.    

You want salary relief, here is the best I could do.  Trainer is obviously a good golfer, he is on the PGA Tour but in terms of professionals, he’s not very good.  There is a reason he’s ranked outside the Top 400 in the world.  Despite not being good, he is mispriced this week on DraftKings.  He should be more like a 6400 or 6300 player being that he’s Top 10 in putting and close to Top 50 in Driving Distance.  He also has a 7th place and an 11th place finish on the season.  He has performed better in events with weaker fields.  Why not throw him in a tournament lineup and see what happens.