MLB DFS Value Vault May 20: Aaron Civale Looks to Bounce-Back
The uniformity tonight is nice as we begin the weekend with an 11-game MLB DFS main slate on all three major sites. We have a long day ahead of us to stay on track with the latest MLB news and following the MLB weather tool throughout the day is also a vital part of preparation. The weather was already an issue hours before the first pitch as the Coors Field game was removed from the slate thanks to snow. Then it’s time to comb through tonight’s MLB lineups to find some value-priced MLB fantasy picks for tonight.
DFS Value Pitchers
DraftKings - $5,800; FanDuel - $6,800; Yahoo - $34
To say that the beginning of the season hasn’t gone according to plan for Aaron Civale would be an understatement. It doesn’t get much worse than his 9.85 ERA, but it is close to double his 5.57 xERA, and while it’s still far from ideal that, along with Civale’s 4.60 xFIP does paint a much more attractive picture.
Civale is striking out more than a batter per inning (9.82) which certainly helps from a DFS perspective and it is a good thing that he’s only walking 2.92 batters. Home runs have been one of his biggest issues (2.19 per nine innings) but he has also been unlucky (.382 BABIP and 24.7% ground ball rate). With just 20 home runs, a .222 batting average, and a mark of just 80 wRC+, Detroit is the perfect opponent for Civale tonight. Just be aware that you are really taking a chance here though, but it could be a nice GPP dart.
DraftKings - $7,300; FanDuel - $7,100
Targeting Toronto feels simply insane, but with a 97 wRC+, they have been just below a league average offense so far this season. Luis Castillo is too good of a pitcher to be priced this cheaply and with just two starts under his belt after beginning the season on the Injured List, we haven’t seen the best of the right-hander. In each of his two starts, Castillo has allowed three earned runs while striking out seven in 9.2 innings. He did get up to 82 pitches in his last start, and it really was just one bad inning with two walks that did him in, and I would expect to see Castillo look more like himself tonight.
DraftKings - $7,800; FanDuel - $6,400; Yahoo - $28
After rocketing through the minor leagues, it’s hard to find many major league debuts than what get saw from Chase Silseth last week. The right-hander allowed just one hit in six innings of work against Oakland while striking out four and walking two. Eight of Silseth’s outs came on the ground and he’s clearly on the fast track after posting 1.73 ERA in five starts to begin the season at Triple-A. At least against the A’s tonight, the rookie’s success should continue.
DFS Value Hitters
DraftKings - $2,900; FanDuel - $2,100; Yahoo - $8
Not only does Matt Reynolds have the platoon advantage tonight against Hyun-Jin Ryu who has struggled to start the season, but he is also batting leadoff for Cincinnati. Reynolds is only batting .231 on the season, but he is decidedly better (.292) against left-handers in his career while being essentially a free square across the industry. The Reds do have an implied run total of just under four, so they could be a sneaky offense to target tonight for GPP lineups.
DraftKings - $2,500; FanDuel - $2,000; Yahoo - $7
Mauricio Dubon is a minimum-priced option on two of the three sites tonight while coming pretty close to it on DK, as he gets the start for Houston against MartÃn Pérez. The Texas left-hander is generally someone I look to target, and that remains true even if he has had some success against the Astros’ big bats as of late. Despite that, the oddsmakers don’t seem to care as they have Houston scoring close to five runs tonight, and Dubon gives us cheap exposure to their lineup while also picking up the platoon advantage. Dubon has hits in two of his last three games and is hitting a solid. 250 with two home runs and eight RBI this season in 56 plate appearances. It helps that Dubon doesn’t strike out which gives him a chance to put his speed to use, but he does need to do a better job of keeping the ball on the ground.
DraftKings - $2,000; FanDuel - $2,000; Yahoo - $12
Let’s go really cheap here and target Daniel Lynch with the platoon advantage. We have tried it to varying degrees of success so far this season, but his 4.69 xFIP does show there is some opportunity here and so far in his young career, he has been much worse against right-handed hitters with all eight of his home runs coming against them. Kyle Garlick has three home runs in 32 plate appearances so far this season and his .176 BABIP gives some hope that he has been underperforming as does his 15%-barrel rate and 60% hard hit rate.
DraftKings - $3,200; FanDuel - $3,100; Yahoo - $16
Julio RodrÃguez was elevated to the cleanup spot tonight, and I’m not exactly scared of Michael Wacha as his opponent either. The rookie has three multi-hit games out of his last five while hitting the first two home runs of his career in that stretch. So far this year, Rodriguez is hitting .257 with 13 RBI and we get him at a favorable price tonight as he looks to take aim on the Green Monster.
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