MLB DFS Value Vault May 25: Take a Chance on JP Sears
Wednesdays are generally a busy day across baseball, and today is going to be no different. For our purposes, we have a five-game MLB DFS main slate (on DraftKings and Yahoo Fantasy) that begins at 7:05 or a seven-game MLB DFS main slate (FanDuel) that begins at 6:40 to expand our player field. Now it’s time to comb through tonight’s MLB lineups, stay up to date with the MLB weather and MLB news, and find some value-priced MLB DFS fantasy points to make it a profitable evening.
DFS Value Pitchers
JP Sears (NYY); DraftKings - $5,500; FanDuel - $6,000; Yahoo - $25
It’s a rough night for value-priced pitching options, so why not just go as cheap as possible with Sears? Starting for the Yankees means that Sears should be set in the run support department, and going against Tyler Wells should put him in a solid position for a victory. With .228 team batting average and a wRC+ of 90, Baltimore gives Sears a good landing spot. Over the past two years, Sears has continuously struck out more than a batter an inning while having success at Double-A (4.09 ERA/3.55 FIP in 50.2 innings) and Triple-A (2.87 ERA/2.76 FIP in 53.1 innings last year and then a 0.83 ERA/1.12 FIP) in 21.2 innings this year) while also limiting the walks. Let’s see what he can do in his first career start.
Luis Castillo (CIN); FanDuel - $7,300
We can only use Castillo over at FanDuel but his price certainly got my attention. Castillo has yet to allow more than three runs in a start and he is coming off a solid outing (31 FD points) against Toronto in his last outing. The right-hander limited Toronto to two runs while he scattered seven hits over six innings without walking a batter and striking out five. In picking up a quality start, it was the deepest Castillo pitched in a game this season and that might be the biggest factor as to why his ERA is still 4.60 but he does have a 3.67 xERA.
Ranger Suárez (PHI); DraftKings – $7,900; Yahoo - $35
Suarez just sneaks in under that $8k mark on DK, and the risk here is in the lack of consistency we have seen from the southpaw so far this season. After two starts in which Suarez allowed a combined three runs in 13 innings while putting up 27.3 and 22.2 DK points, respectively, thanks in part to 13 strikeouts, he then was only able to get through three innings against the Dodgers allowing three runs. Overall, Suarez has a solid 4.12 ERA while striking out 7.55 batters per nine innings and maintaining a 50.4% groundball rate. Opposing hitters have a hard-hit rate of just 32.8% against Suarez so far this year along with an 8%-barrel rate which does make him a solid option tonight.
DFS Value Hitters
Marcus Semien, 2B/SS (TEX); DraftKings - $3,900; FanDuel - $2,500; Yahoo - $10
At some point, Semien has to get it together and come closer to his expectations, right? Entering play on Tuesday, the infielder had hits in five straight games, but it still only brought his batting average up to .182 on the season. Semien has only driven in nine runs on the season, scoring 13 times, and he does have three stolen bases, but his next home run will actually be his first of the year after hitting 45 last season. If we are looking for a sprinkle of good news, Semien’s strikeouts are still below 20% but he only has a barrel rate of 3.2% so things aren’t exactly going smoothly. His O-Swing rate has jumped from 25.8% last season to 34% this year, and while that doesn’t paint an appealing picture, he still has a track record and is pretty cheap.
Andrew Vaughn, 1B/OF (CWS); DraftKings - $3,900; FanDuel - $2,600; Yahoo - $12
Targeting Rich Hill with the platoon advantage gets my attention here, but Vaughn has gotten off to a solid season overall for Chicago. In his first 25 games, entering action on Tuesday, Vaughn was hitting .277 with four home runs and 14 RBI as he looks to be finding his footing at the major league level. With a .181 ISO, we are seeing some power present. Vaughn is making hard contact at a rate of 53% this season to go along with a solid 9.1%-barrel rate, and he is a solid piece of a White Sox stack tonight.
Brandon Marsh, OF (LAA); DraftKings - $3,300; FanDuel - $3,100; Yahoo - $15
Stacking Angels against Glenn Otto tonight could prove to be a viable option, and Marsh could prove to be a cost-effective piece of that. At some point, Marsh’s 31.9% strikeout rate and .390 BABIP could catch up with him, but it doesn’t appear that the time has come just yet. After picking up hits in his first two at bats on Tuesday, Marsh is hitting a solid .279 on the season with four home runs and 24 RBI while proving to be a vital piece of the Angels’ lineup.
Jared Walsh, 1B (LAA); DraftKings - $3,800; FanDuel - $3,400; Yahoo - $19
Let’s stick with the Angels theme and another left-handed batter against Otto tonight. Walsh hit his ninth home run of the season on Tuesday, and that along with his 27 RBI and 20 runs scored, makes the .245 batting average a little easier to deal with. With a .224 ISO, we don’t have to worry about power or run production here and Walsh has some solid Statcast metrics with an 11.9%-barrel rate, 12-degree launch angle, and 45.5% hard-hit rate.
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Caleb Durbin went 2-for-4 with a walkoff homer as the Brewers edged the Padres 4-3 on Saturday.
The Padres decided against using Robert Suarez in a tie game in the ninth, and Durbin immediately walked it off with a homer off David Morgan, who was making his fifth big-league appearance. It was Durbin’s second career homer. He’s batting .302 with seven doubles and eight RBI in his last 14 games.
Jose Quintana surrendered one run over five innings Saturday against the Padres.
Quintana won his first four starts for the Brewers, but he’s had no luck since, even though he’s struggled just once in giving up six runs to the Cubs. He’s allowed four earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts, all of which turned into no-decisions. He’ll make his next start Thursday against the Cardinals.
Trevor Megill gave up two runs to take a blown save in the ninth Saturday against the Padres.
The Brewers scored in the bottom of the ninth afterwards, giving Megill a victory, so this won’t do too much harm to his standing. Working with a two-run lead, Megill gave up a single and a walk before Luis Arraez dropped a game-tying double down the left-field line. He then got Manny Machado out to keep it tied. It’s his second blown save in 14 chances.
Stephen Kolek shut out the Brewers for 5 2/3 innings in a no-decision Saturday.
Kolek walked four tonight, but all three hits he allowed were soft singles. While he did give up seven hard-hit balls, none turned into hits and two actually became double plays. Kolek now has a 3.00 ERA through seven big-league starts. Still, between the 17% strikeout rate and the 49% hard-hit rate, we’re not big fans, even if he does get plenty of groundballs. He’ll pitch in Arizona next.
Trevor Story went 3-for-5 with a double and five RBI as the Red Sox beat the Yankees 10-7 on Saturday.
It’s his seventh career five-RBI game. All three knocks left the bat at over 103 mph, which is nice. But Story’s issue hasn’t been exit velocity nearly so much as a lack of contact and an unusual amount of his contact coming on the ground. Maybe the worst of his slump is over, but we’re still not sure a big turnaround is on the way.
Garrett Crochet yielded five runs in six innings and struck out nine in a win over the Yankees on Saturday.
Crochet gave up three runs in the second, two of which came on an Austin Wells homer that would have left only three ballparks. The other two came in the fourth. Crochet faced the minimum after that, with the only batter reaching against him doing so on catcher interference. That runner was erased on a double play. Crochet is expected face the Yankees again next time out, probably on on Friday.