Esports CS:GO DFS Playbook: May 17
Heroic (World rank: #6) vs. Vitality (World rank: #8) - 6:00 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Heroic (-145) | Vitality (+120)
Map Handicap: Heroic -1.5 (+185) | Vitality +1.5 (-230)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Legends Stage - Swiss Round Five (Teams with a 2-2 record). Winning team advances to the Champions stage, losing team is eliminated.
- Heroic - Rating at event: TeSeS 1.18 | stavn 1.10 | cadiaN 1.07 | sjuush 1.03 | refrezh 0.84
- Heroic - Rating past three months: stavn 1.22 | TeSeS 1.11 | cadiaN 1.07 | sjuush 1.07 | refrezh 1.03
- Vitality - Rating at event: ZywOo 1.24 | dupreeh 1.02 | Magisk 1.02 | misutaaa 1.01 | apEX 0.90
- Vitality - Rating past three months: ZywOo 1.19 | dupreeh 1.07 | Magisk 1.07 | apEX 0.96 | misutaaa 0.92
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced in February at IEM Katowice 2022 and Heroic swept 2-0 (16-12 Mirage / 22-18 Inferno). Stavn led the server with a 1.33 Rating, while dupreeh led with 57 kills across two maps.
Prediction/Narrative: Vitality wins 2-1.
The last meeting between these teams was very close with Inferno going to double overtime, and that was only the second event that Vitality played with this lineup. Vitality have looked better since then, currently having won their last four best-of-threes played, so it is fair to assume that Vitality could put up another close series at the very least. The French have not established a deep map pool at this point, but they have at least a 50% win rate on Vertigo, Inferno, Mirage, and Dust2 in the past month. Heroic and Vitality both have a 1.04 Team Rating at this event and the match-up looks fairly even on paper. ZywOo is also the sixth highest-rated player at the event and is capable of carrying Vitality. Overall, I see enough reasons to back Vitality as an underdog, and I expect a close series either way.
- ZywOo is the third highest-rated player on T side at the event with a 1.28 Rating across 100 maps played.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
ZywOo ($8,400) | dupreeh ($7,600) | Magisk ($6,600) | misutaaa ($4,200) | apEX ($5,400) | TeSeS ($8,600) | stavn ($9,200) | refrezh ($5,000)
G2 (World rank: #5) vs. FURIA (World rank: #11) - 9:45 A.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: G2 (-205) | FURIA (+165)
Map Handicap: G2 -1.5 (+160) | FURIA +1.5 (-200)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Legends Stage - Swiss Round Five (Teams with a 2-2 record). Winning team advances to the Champions stage, losing team is eliminated.
- G2 - Rating at event: m0NESY 1.21 | NiKo 1.16 | huNter- 0.99 | JACKZ 0.92 | Aleksib 0.87
- G2 - Rating past three months: NiKo 1.21 | huNter- 1.16 | m0NESY 1.14 | JACKZ 0.96 | Aleksib 0.90
- FURIA - Rating at event: yuurih 1.14 | KSCERATO 1.07 | saffee 1.00 | drop 0.88 | arT 0.81
- FURIA - Rating past three months: KSCERATO 1.20 | yuurih 1.19 | arT 1.06 | saffee 1.04 | drop 1.02
H2H Data:
- These rosters faced in February at IEM Katowice 2022 and G2 won 2-1 (16-13 Nuke / 13-16 Mirage / 16-10 Inferno). NiKo led the server with 80 kills and a 1.44 Rating across three maps played.
Prediction/Narrative: G2 wins 2-1.
Both of these teams qualified for playoffs at PGL Major Stockholm 2021, but one of them will not make it that far here at Antwerp. G2 have looked like the better team with a 1.03 Team Rating compared to a 0.98 Team Rating for FURIA, thanks in part to FURIA’s lopsided loss to NiP on Monday. Inferno used to be FURIA’s favorite map, but they pale in comparison to G2 on that map. G2 have a 9-3 W/L record on Inferno with this lineup and have established themselves as one of the best teams in the world on that map. As for the rest of the map pool, it’s fairly 50/50 considering FURIA took Mirage from G2 when they last met. I’d give G2 an edge on most maps, but Mirage, Nuke, Vertigo, and Ancient could all go either way, which is why I see this as a tight series that goes three maps. G2 should win here, but I don’t want to have too much recency bias considering G2 won on Monday and FURIA lost. G2 makes sense as the main target on Draftkings, but FURIA is cheap enough that some of them could hit good value if this stays tight.
- m0NESY is the second highest-rated player on T side at the event with a 1.30 Rating across 87 maps played.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
m0NESY ($7,800) | NiKo ($10,000) | huNter- ($9,000) | JACKZ ($5,800) | KSCERATO ($7,200) | saffee ($4,800) | Aleksib ($6,800) | yuurih ($6,800)
Copenhagen Flames (World rank: #15) vs. Imperial (World rank: #18) - 1:30 P.M. ET
Moneyline Odds: Copenhagen Flames (-135) | Imperial (+115)
Map Handicap: Copenhagen Flames -1.5 (+215) | Imperial +1.5 (-275)
- This is a best-of-three series on LAN for PGL Major Antwerp 2022 Legends Stage - Swiss Round Five (Teams with a 2-2 record). Winning team advances to the Champions stage, losing team is eliminated.
- Copenhagen Flames - Rating at event: nicoodoz 1.08 | jabbi 1.00 | Zyphon 0.98 | roeJ 0.97 | HooXi 0.76
- Copenhagen Flames - Rating past three months: roeJ 1.20 | nicoodoz 1.12 | jabbi 1.09 | Zyphon 1.03 | HooXi 0.88
- Imperial - Rating at event: fer 1.26 | FalleN 1.04 | boltz 0.99 | VINI 0.98 | fnx 0.85
- Imperial - Rating past three months: fer 1.25 | FalleN 1.12 | boltz 1.12 | VINI 1.12 | fnx 0.96
H2H Data:
- These rosters have never faced each other.
Prediction/Narrative: Copenhagen Flames win 2-1.
Imperial have been the higher rated team at this event, but Copenhagen Flames had more difficult match-ups in their best-of-threes. The Flames had to face Spirit, who went 3-0 at the Legends Stage, and FaZe, who are the number one ranked team in the world, meanwhile Imperial faced Cloud9 and Bad News Eagles, who are both already eliminated from the event. Imperial have been finding good form at the Major with their veteran lineup, and their map pool has been solid. The Brazilians are undefeated on Overpass, and they have been great on Inferno with a 12-2 W/L record, however, a majority of their results have come against weak opponents from the NA/SA region. Against top 20 opponents, Imperial have a 5-5 W/L record across 10 maps played, so their experience against top teams is still limited. In the past month, we have seen Copenhagen Flames beat FaZe on Inferno and beat NiP on Overpass, amongst other top 20 wins. In this high stakes match-up, I think that Copenhagen Flames have an edge given the fact that their lineup has played 91 maps against top 20 teams. Imperial have veterans on their team, but their time spent playing together as a lineup has still been relatively short. This match-up is close on paper, but I still just think Copenhagen Flames are the better team, and I’d prefer to back the Danes at similar pricing on Draftkings.
- nicoodoz has won 77.8% of his CT side opening duels, which makes him the seventh most successful player at the event in such duels.
Favorite Draftkings Plays (In order of priority):
nicoodoz ($8,200) | roeJ ($9,200) | Zyphon ($6,000) | jabbi ($6,800) | fer ($8,800) | FalleN ($4,400) | VINI ($6,600)