Top Tier
Buffalo Bills – Say a prayer for the Jets this week cause they’re about to get run over by a train. The matchup already sucks for the Jets as is, but the Bills are a pissed off group after being upset by Jacksonville last week. Over their last five games the Bills defense has allowed 74 total points and 34 of those came against the Titans. Over said five-game span they’ve forced 13 turnovers and collected nine sacks. They’re good at disrupting the opposing offense in so many ways and while the Jets offense has strangely played okay with Mike White under center, I do not expect very much from the Jets offense on Sunday. Vegas agrees as the over/under is at 47.5 points and the Jets are 12-point dogs.
Arizona Cardinals – I’m a little worried about the Cardinals, I won’t lie. They’re a little beat up and I think we see negative regression from this unit down the stretch. However, this week against the Panthers is a matchup worth paying up for. The Panthers recently re-signed Cam Newton with Sam Darnold being injured, but XFL legend P.J. Walker will get the start this weekend. Arizona has held four of their last five opponents to 17 or fewer points on offense with 15 sacks in that span. I think there’s a decent floor here for Cash games, but I’m not completely sold on the ceiling. Vegas sees about 44 points being scored and the Cardinals are ten-point favorites.
Mid-Tier
Denver Broncos – I’m not thrilled about the mid-tier options this week aside from Denver. They host the Eagles who have been putting up points on the ground, but overall we haven’t truly been trusting the consistency of that offense. Philadelphia has been limiting Jalen Hurts’ pass attempts the past few weeks and I think that trend continues in Week 10. Denver held Dallas scoreless for 55 minutes last week before allowing a pair of garbage time touchdowns, and it was a seemingly impressive performance sans Von Miller. It’s an easier matchup this week against the Eagles. The over/under is somewhat low at 45.5 points and the Broncos are favored by about a field goal.
Cleveland Browns – The Browns D/ST typically does something to shoot themselves in the foot for DFS. They usually give up too many points/yards or they aren’t collecting enough sacks or forcing enough turnovers. Last week, they finally did both and they returned ridiculous value in DFS. This week they go to New England, who has been looking better on offense lately. But I still buy into the talent and pass rush on the defensive side of the ball for Cleveland. According to Pro Football Focus, the Browns boast the fourth-best pass rush in football while the Patriots are somewhat middle-of-the-pack in terms of pass protection. I don’t love Cleveland for Cash, but they have GPP appeal.
Value Tier
Tennessee Titans – We normally hold Tennessee in the lowest regard when it comes to the defensive side of the ball. After a presumably tough three-week stretch where the Titans played the Chiefs, Colts, and Rams this defensive unit returned double-digit fantasy points in each game. They have actually been a thorn in the side of opposing quarterbacks. Do I feel incredibly confident they can keep this up? Not really, but the confidence can grow every week. They host the Saints in Week 10 at a nice price tag on DraftKings. Over their last five games the Titans have 15 sacks and 11 forced turnovers. They’ve held each of their last three opponents to under 350 total yards of offense. Even if they don’t return double-digit points in Week 10, six-to-eight will suffice at this price tag. The fact that the Saints are planning on playing without Alvin Kamara makes me feel a little better about this group as well.
Carolina Panthers – I don’t hate the Panthers on Sunday’s main slate although I prefer them on the shorter four-game slate in the afternoon. Carolina has shown a decent floor this year. This is a young defense, but one that possesses talent. They’ve returned at least seven points on DraftKings in seven of nine games this year. But the Cardinals are a tough matchup, there’s no denying that. The Panthers are ten-point dogs to arguably the best team in the NFC. The matchup between Carolina’s 12th-ranked pass rush and Arizona’s tenth-ranked pass protection will be worth monitoring. But truthfully you’re just hoping Carolina’s D/ST puts up a fight. I don’t like this group for Cash. I’d rather go to Tennessee or gamble on the next team. But I like this group a good amount for GPP’s and again, if fading the Cardinals in the afternoon slate, I like Carolina as the pay-down option for that particular slate.
Washington Football Team – Let the soft faint whispers of “position of variance” surround you as you entertain paying down to this team for DFS. I don’t know if I’d go here in Cash games because the Titans are pretty appealing, but we’ll see how the rest of the roster construction shakes out come Sunday. The Football Team makes for a nice paydown in GPP’s especially at the near minimum price tag on DraftKings. The pass rush that was struggling to begin the year has found its groove. In their last four games heading into their Bye week the Football Team collected 12 sacks and forced seven turnovers. Are they likely keeping Tom Brady and the Bucs in check as they are also coming off their Bye week? Unlikely. But they’re cheap enough to where they don’t need to do much for 2X-3X value.
Fade
Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys are trending in the wrong direction. They haven’t forced a turnover in their last two games and they’re coming off an embarrassing loss last week to Denver. To make matters worse, Dallas just lost Randy Gregory for multiple weeks. Gregory has five sacks on the season and a 90.7 pass rushing grade according to Pro Football Focus, which is top ten in the league. The Cowboys are actually nine-point favorites, but the expected total is pretty high at 54.5 points. I don’t want to underestimate the Falcons offense in this matchup because if they do fall behind, Matt Ryan will spread the ball around and I worry Dallas bleeds garbage time production.