NFL DFS Playbook: Week 1

Mobile quarterbacks continue to be all the rage in fantasy, both in seasonal and DFS, and Murray, here in his third NFL season is a prime candidate to break out. I don't love the play-calling of Kliff Kingsbury, but Murray does have some autonomy at the line and he gives you a nice, high floor, given his ability to run. Last season he had four rushing touchdowns in his first three games and had 10 in his first nine. He also improved as a passer, seeing improvements in completion percentage, total yards and passing touchdowns. The Titans defense is going to struggle this season with a mediocre pass rush and a terrible secondary which means Murray can rack up some serious rushing totals if he gets into the next level of the defense and if he hangs back to pass, his receiving weapons, likely DeAndre Hopkins, should have little to no issue beating the coverage. 

The Seahawks have switched up their offensive scheme this year, going from Pete Carroll's Air Coryell system to Shane Waldron's west coast attack. Yes, Carroll demands the offense runs the ball, but with Waldron calling the plays, you're actually going to see Russ cook a lot more this year. Waldron is giving his QB more freedom at the helm and we should see Wilson do more scrambling in an effort to give his receivers more time to shake coverage. You're looking at a lot of high-percentage passing which will enable him to rack up the extra yards and you'll probably see him run a little bit more as well. The Colts defense is rock-solid and they've got a strong pass-rush, so that should flush Wilson out of the pocket more, but rather than be concerned, we're going to embrace that and watch this new-look offense go to work. 

The reigning MVP had a tumultuous offseason, but is back under center for the Packers and is looking to pick up right where he left off last season. His arsenal of receiving weapons hasn't changed, but that didn't stop him last year from posting the best season of his career. He'll open the season against a Saints secondary that has been in decline for the past few seasons, particularly Marshon Lattimore. Rodgers and Davante Adams should hook up early and often in this game, just as they are expected to all season long and if New Orleans DC Dennis Allen starts floating in more Cover-2 like he did last year, Rodgers should really pick them apart.

This will be an interesting test for Hurts and the new-look Eagles offense and why I will only look to Hurts as a GPP option this week. Usually a guy who has the rushing ability Hurts has, provides you with a nice floor and allows you to use him in cash games, but the general uncertainty of how Nick Sirianni is going to run things pushes me into a GPP-only mentality. The Atlanta secondary is awful and Hurts should be able to find his pass-catchers downfield, but their lack of a strong pass rush might keep Hurts in the pocket more and running less. This should be a good test for the Eagles offense and a way for us to really see just what kind of weekly option we have with Hurts this season.

Cousins makes sense as a GPP paydown as the passing attack can so easily light up this Bengals secondary. And with Klint Kubiak calling the plays, he looks to the pass a little more than his dad did. It's still a run-heavy scheme and Dalvin Cook will be fed ridiculous carries, but they'll soften as the game goes on in an effort to, not only win, but to also punish the Bengals secondary a little bit. Trae Waynes, the Bengals big offseason acquisition, is out and the rest of the defensive backs are mediocre at best. We all watched Cousins rattle off a number of great games for fantasy purposes last season, so there is little reason to believe he can't do it again.

If you listened to the new NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba, you might be confused as to why I've added Ryan into the QB mix. It's not because Jon convinced me that Arthur Smith will simply run the same offense Dan Quinn and Dirk Koetter were running last season, because I know that's not the case. It's because of the Eagles defense and realizing, after digging deeper into the personnel, just how bad it is. Darius Slay is on the decline, the overall coverage is mediocre, at best, and the front seven doesn't really generate a pass-rush that instills fear in opposing quarterbacks. If Arthur Smith can rejuvenate Ryan Tannehill, he can certainly do the same with Ryan, especially with weapons like Calvin Ridley and Kyle Pitts.  

Anyone who has ever read my stuff knows I'm a huge sucker for a revenge-game narrative and it doesn't get any better than this as Darnold gets his former team here in Week 1 and in his new home stadium. The Jets defensive strength was once their defensive line, but injuries have already decimated the front four and they're going to struggle to rush the passer. That will allow Darnold some time to look for his receivers downfield against a secondary that has way too many inexperienced rookies floating around. With Christian McCaffrey in the backfield, if Darnold has his timing down, he should be able to carve up this defense with ease as Joe Brady loves to send all his pass-catchers out at once with slant routes both downfield and underneath. It's going to be tough for the Jets to keep up. 

We start this season just as we did last year and the year before. It's not a matter of whether you should use McCaffrey, as much as it is whether or not you can afford it. We know this offense runs through him and we know how high the upside is given his pass-catching prowess. It also helps that this Week 1 match-up is super-soft and the Jets are going to struggle to contain him. Expect a strong effort and strong results. Just decide now if you want to pay this kind of a price, but given the number of bargains we're seeing at other positions, you probably will.

Yes, another super-obvious play this week, but that doesn't mean a reminder isn't necessary. Even with Klint Kubiak as the new offensive coordinator, this offense runs through Cook and his volume will be huge here against a soft Bengals run defense. Last year, Cincinnati allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game and they didn't exactly do much to improve their front-seven during the offseason. It's a nice way to start the season for Cook and for those who use him in DFS this week.

The game-plan for the Browns is going to be very simple as they open up the season against the Chiefs – keep Patrick Mahomes off the field. To do that, they are going to need long, sustained drives that chew up a lot of the clock and that obviously means we're going to see a lot of Chubb once again. Head coach Kevin Stefanski loves that ground attack and zone-blocking scheme he witnessed in Minnesota when working alongside Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison and implemented it immediately upon his arrival in Cleveland. That gives Chubb a real nice high floor and makes him a great cash game play. I'm probably not going to use him in GPP tournaments because this match-up against the Chiefs could roll into some form of a shootout should the Browns secondary struggle, but he's still going to be a great play based on early volume.

Plain and simple, the Texans are a disaster on both sides of the ball. Last year, they gave up the most rushing yards for the season as well as on a per game basis. They also allowed the most rushing touchdowns on the year. We all have questions regarding how Urban Meyer is going to run this offense and that should keep the ownership down for Robinson, but should we see the same game plan we witnessed when Meyer had Ezekiel Elliott at Ohio State, we could see a run-heavy scheme here. Against a soft Texans defense, it makes a lot of sense, especially if the first-time NFL head coach is looking to grab his first win of the season without too much fanfare or too collegiate an offense.

Everyone has been raving about Mixon's work at training camp this season, citing improvements all around from his pass-blocking to his patience to find the proper running lanes for the play. It's not like we're buying the hype as much as it is recognizing the fact that Mixon has always had talent. It's how his coaches use him. That's the question on everyone's mind. Working in his favor is the situation with Joe Burrow who seems to still need some time (and confidence) with regard to healing from his injury, mentally speaking, of course. Burrow has been hesitant to put his body at risk during camp, so if Zac Taylor wants to baby his QB a little, the lean on Mixon could be heavier. The VIkings ranked 30th in DVOA against the run and while there have been some changes made, it doesn't look like a shut-down defensive line. 

I've gone back and forth with whether or not to use Gibson here in Week 1, but finally landed on him here for the final Playbook. Given the offensive scheme that Scott Turner and Ron Rivera are implementing this year, it's tough not to believe that Gibson truly could become McCaffrey 2.0. I was going to leave him as a GPP-only play as there could be a few tweaks here and there, but from everything I am hearing, this offense is likely to run through Gibson. Especially with Curtis Samuel now landing on IR. If Washington's defense can contain the Chargers offense, then the game script will favor a heavy use of Gibson and if the Chargers take a lead of their own, Gibson's pass-catching should be a featured asset.

The Lions are going to be a major target for us and every other DFS player this season. Their defense is atrocious and they're going to get beaten up both on the ground and through the air. We all know that Kyle Shanahan loves to run the ball and that shouldn't change at all. The real question is actually going to be which running back to use. Mostert should be the lead back, but Shanahan loves to rotate his guys to get fresh legs out there and that means rookie Trey Sermon could be an intriguing option, especially at his discounted price. For now, we'll keep Mostert as the target, but we'll watch them both at practice for the rest of the week.

As stated above, Marshon Lattimore has declined in coverage over the last few seasons and is likely to struggle to contain Adams. He's Aaron Rodgers No. 1 target and the two of them are looking to kick off the season in style and by that, I mean double-digit targets and a lot of red zone looks. Remember that out-pattern play they continuously ran last year inside the five-yard-line? Pretty sure we're going to see that one nice and early.

This is likely to be another volume play as Ridley steps up as the new No. 1 in Atlanta. He'll probably see a lot of Darius Slay, but in all honesty, Slay just isn't the guy he used to be. Pro Football Focus actually ranks the Eagles secondary 25th on their board and there is little reason to argue against it. Neither Steven Nelson nor Avonte Maddox are going to be able to contain him on the opposite side and if he ends up opposite rookie Zech McPhearson, look out. Finally removed from the shadow of Julio Jones, it's Ridley's time to shine.

Again, the Tennessee secondary is hot trash and Kyler Murray is going to have a field day against them. He's going to be looking for Hopkins early and often in this one and if the Cardinals can even contain Derrick Henry a little bit, this game should go back and forth quite a bit. There's a reason Vegas has this game total at 52 right now and Hopkins is a big part of that. With so many other bargains on the table, paying up for at least one guy is going to be a great move. Coming in cheaper than Adams and Ridley, Nuk just might be my guy to lock into my lineups.

First off, the Bengals are going to get hit hard with the run. Once they realize they need additional help stopping Dalvin Cook, the secondary is going to start cheating in more and leaving Jefferson in more one-on-one coverage than they should, especially with Trae Waynes, their big free agent acquisition, already declared as out for the game. You won't see a high volume of targets, but you should see enough work to rack up the necessary yardage to be a solid cash game play as well as the TD upside for GPP tournaments.

As if Russell Wilson needed more of a reason to continuously look for Metcalf, this new offensive scheme is likely to pepper the third-year wideout with a ton of targets this season. The Colts have a strong secondary with Xavier Rhodes (though he could be out for this game) and Kenny Moore on the outside, but the Seahawks are likely to still need to rely on the pass given the potential struggles of their defense. If the Colts can put some points up on Seattle, it forces Wilson to the air more and while Tyler Lockett will see his fair share of work, Metcalf seems to be the guy Wilson will rely on the most.

What's better than a revenge game narrative? How about a double-revenge game narrative? Anderson is reunited with Sam Darnold and the two of them are looking to show the Jets (and former head coach Adam Gase) what kind of fools they were. Anderson loves his former college coach Matt Rhule, he loves this offense and he showed everyone last year that he's far from being a one-trick pony who can only run the deep pattern downfield. He'll line up all over the field and do some damage on both the underneath routes as well as the deep plays.

As a Jets fan, I am really having a hard time evaluating this squad without bias. I didn't agree with drafting Zach Wilson and Davis happens to be one of my least-favorite players in the NFL. However, if the game flow goes the way I believe it will, then the Jets are going to have throw and with Jamison Crowder out and Keelan Cole banged up, Davis appears to be in line for a featured role as the team's No. 1 wideout. He was targeted heavily by Wilson in the preseason game against the Packers and should see a steady diet of targets throughout the day. It also makes for a decent option coming back if you, like me, are going to do a Panthers stack.

When Teddy Bridgewater was announced as the starting quarterback for Denver, Jeudy immediately shot up the rankings and draft boards. He is expected to thrive in this scheme now that he has someone who can accurately get him the ball. Against the Giants, he should see a heavy volume of targets which should keep his floor nice and high, especially in a PPR format like Draft Kings, and he's definitely got the GPP upside to find his way into the end zone and rack up yards after the catch.

Based on what we witnessed during the preseason, rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence utilized Jones as his favorite receiver. It's easy to see why, given the reliability and experience of the former Lion, so I expect he'll be some sort of a security blanket for his QB. The fact that they get to do this dance against Houston, a team who hasn't had a decent secondary in like five seasons, only makes it more enticing. Then you put the price tag all the way down here? Yes, please.

Callaway is listed as both a cash game and a GPP option because of his price tag, but he's probably going to be way too chalky for large-field, mega-multi-entry contests. That's what happens when you shine bright during a prime-time preseason game. Callaway seems to be the go-to receiver for the Saints right now and actually for both Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. Yes, Winston is the starter, but Hill will see his usual workload as Sean Payton loves him too much to keep him on the sidelines. That, coupled with this tasty price tag, is going to make him a very popular choice this week.

If there's one thing we learned playing DFS last year, it's that paying up for your tight end is probably where you want to go each week. Kelce's workload, his touchdown upside and the high-volume passing attack the Chiefs use put him head and shoulders above every other tight need. Why wouldn't you use him given the edge he has over his contemporaries? You don't need to look at match-ups or have any kind of clever analysis. Using Kelce is about as basic and right as you can get.

If you're not going to pay up for Kelce, then you better park Kittle into your lineups. He's the go-to pass-catcher in this offensive scheme, Jimmy Garoppolo leans heavily on him and his ability to pick up yards after the catch always keeps him in the cash game conversation. Add to it his TD upside and the ineptitude of the Lions defense nd you've got a pretty big no-brainer here.

Since he's a rookie and head coach Arthur Smith likes a run-heavy scheme, I'm going to leave Pitts as a GPP option for right now. That could change over time, based on his workload, but for now, we're going to err on the side of caution. Smith showed in Tennessee that he does like to utilize his tight ends and the expectation is that Pitts, who plays like a receiver more than he does a tight end, will start to see a heavy dose of targets each week. But for right now, we'll view all of this upside in GPP contests.

Personally, I didn't feel it was necessary to add in another TE option because I'm pretty much sticking with the top three on the slate. However, some folks still insist on paying down, so in an effort to provide you with alternatives, you can take a look at Gesicki. Not because he can throw a ball over his house and still catch it, but because he became a go-to target for Tua Tagovailoa last year as the season rolled on. Over his last four games, Gesicki averaged 8.5 targets and should probably be leaned on again alongside Jaylen Waddle. If you absolutely cannot pay up for one of the top three on this slate, then Gesicki works. 

Eleven receiving touchdowns in 2020 is staring everyone in the face right now. But with the potential for TD regression, we have to view Tonyan as a GPP-only guy for right now as we need to see what his target distribution is like before we commit to cash games. He only saw six or more targets twice last year, so that's not nearly enough volume to throw him into a cash lineup, even at a mid-tier price. But if you're paying down a little in a GPP, you can probably look into that Packers stack with him, Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams.

While the rest of the world continues to flock around Dallas Goedert, I will happily pivot towards Ertz who we all know is the worse of the two when it comes to blocking. He's not a terrible blocker, but if you're Nick Sirianni and you have two tight ends who can both catch passes and one is better than the other at blocking, who are you going to have block? Exactly. Ertz is also a potential trade candidate, so featuring him against a tomato can defense like Atlanta's definitely makes sense. The price is right, especially if you want to use some high-priced talent elsewhere in your GPP lineup.

Here's a bargain-basement TE option for GPP only as we really don't know what the target distribution is going to look like. We know Metcalf and Lockett are going to see the most, but how Everett is going to fit into this scheme during games is still a relative unknown. He's been praised by his coaches and quarterback, so the hope is that he sees a strong workload and the over/under is definitely in our favor at 50 right now.

I don't like paying up for defenses, especially when it's the most expensive unit on the slate. But does anyone have any confidence in this Detroit offense? Dan Campbell? Anthony Lynn? Jared Goff? D'Andre Swift's groin? And is Tyrell Williams really their No. 1 wideout? I don't know if there's anything else left to say. We'll likely be targeting against the Lions all year. Sorry, Lions fans.

Bill Belichick is still the mad genius and his defensive units are always strong options for both seasonal and daily fantasy. Last year was tough for them as numerous players opted out due to COVID-19, but most are back, including Kyle Van Noy who spent a year with Miami, and they added Matthew Judon to the crew as well. I haven't had much faith in Tua Tagovailoa's development and wouldn't be surprised in the least to see him struggle and turn the ball over.

Vic Fangio has always been considered a defensive guru so it should come as no surprise to see them listed as one of the top units in the game here in his third season as the head coach. The key here is the battle at the line of scrimmage. Will Bradley Chubb play? Does Von Miller still have that killer instinct? If the answer to both is yes, then Daniel Jones could be in for a long day. He's been good for a few turnovers per game, so there is little reason to think that trend won't continue against such a strong defensive group.

This is going to be one of the top units in the league and they'll be facing a potentially road-weary Chargers team whose offensive line has been dealing with some minor injuries over the past week or so. The key is the Vegas total of 44.5 right now. If Washington can keep the score down and maybe turn the ball over a couple of times, they'll be worth the price of admission. Keep tabs on the number of sacks Justin Herbert takes. It could be a lot if the line doesn't hold.

Here's your dart -throw, amirite? Houston has Tyrod Taylor under center and they've already said they want to run the ball heavily here in Week 1. Probably every week unless somehow Deshaun Watson is allowed to play. The 45.5 over/under should help you see where this game is going, though surprisingly it's not the lowest. But that probably has nothing to do with the Texans offense. Look for an opportunistic Jaguars defense to get aggressive, play heavily to the run and force Taylor into making some bad throws.