NFL DFS Playbook: Week 2

Murray was one of the top producers in Week 1 and the schedule stays pretty soft for him this week with a match-up against the Vikings. Normally, secondary coverage is a Mike Zimmer specialty, but he just doesn't have the personnel in place to handle the workload, especially when it's the likes of DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore. Minnesota's pass-rush is weakened with the loss of both Everson Griffin and Anthony Barr, but that won't stop Murray from running like he usually does. He may not get flushed out of the pocket, but he'll have some designed runs of his own and he'll always try to scramble to extend the play and let his receivers shake coverage. Pricey? Yes. Worth it? Of course. 

He's likely to be locked in as my favorite QB of the week. A home game against a defense that struggles mightily in coverage? Yes, please! This new-look, west coast offense looks like it fits Wilson like a velvet glove. Last week, he was making his throws, extending plays with his legs and had little to no trouble finding Tyler Lockett and Gerald Everett throughout most of the game. Even DK Metcalf, who was seeing heavy coverage throughout the action, managed to sneak into the end zone. Now the Seahawks go up against the Titans whose secondary is weak and is just coming off getting burned by Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Brutal way for Tennessee to start the season but it's going to be great for us in DFS.

Against most other teams, you would think a soft, squishy match-up with the Falcons would dictate a heavy ground attack. You know, chew up the clock, get in, get out and be done with it. Not Brady, though. It doesn't matter if Ronald Jones is getting the start or what Bruce Arians says about his other running backs, this offense belongs to Brady and he will continue to throw the ball as often as he can. The Falcons just got beaten up by Jalen Hurts and the Eagles last week and this passing attack is easily better and much more efficient. You don't get any rushing upside here with Brady, but with that arsenal of weapons, it's tough not love him in both cash and GPP. 

Our Playbook cover-boy was actually a late-add to the Watch List this week, not because he didn't jump off the page initially, but as the week rolled on and the Cowboys started reporting more and more injuries on defense. This game certainly has the potential to turn into a shootout, as evidenced by the 55 over/under, and Herbert is just finding himself in this Joe Lombardi offense. He locked into Keenan Allen a bunch last week, but we also saw him and Mike Williams connect for a strong effort. Dallas' pass defense was atrocious last season and while they spent a ton of draft capital on defensive players, they're not quite there yet, especially with some key players out, nor will they be able to contain this offense. Herbert should have a strong showing.

While sifting though Week 1 totals, Hurts really caught my eye, not just for his 264 passing yards, three touchdowns and 62 rushing yards, but for the return value you got based on his price. If you used Hurts last week, you had a much easier time fitting in some of the top-priced players at the other skill positions and you didn't lose anything in fantasy production. His price got jacked up on both DK and FD, but look at that discount you're getting on Yahoo! It comes down to what you believe regarding the 49ers defense. Did they simply take their foot off the gas last week and let Detroit work themselves back into the game or is this unit not as fierce as it once was? Heading into Week 2 there are a number of banged-up 49ers on defense and Hurts ability to run should help negate the pass-rush some. I wouldn't mind floating him in as my cash-game QB on Yahoo for this week.

Was there anyone who looked happier during their Week 1 game than Stafford? He was all smiles during his post-game interview and the only smile bigger in the house was that of Sean McVay. Stafford loves McVay, he loves the offensive scheme created by Shane Waldron and he's apparently already BFFs with Cooper Kupp. The Colts defense is strongest at the front-seven, but the secondary is going to continue to have issues, especially with Xavier Rhodes still out. They got beaten badly by Seattle and the corners are likely to have similar trouble again this week.

So not only did Winston win this job outright, but we really didn't see a whole heck of a lot of Taysom Hill either. The results in Week 1 were obviously spectacular as Winston threw for five touchdowns , had no picks and didn't even take a sack. An indictment on how bad Green Bay played? Possibly, but it's tough not to like what you saw and immediately turn it to division-rival Carolina who let rookie Zach Wilson throw for 258 yards and two touchdowns last week. The 44.5 over/under doesn't exactly scream GPP upside, but Winston, particularly on FD, could be an interesting play.

While I expect this game to eventually turn into a passing shootout, it has to get there first and the Titans are going to want to do everything they can to control the pace of this game and the clock while they're fighting off Seattle's 12th man. The Seahawks defense is not what it once was and they allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs last week when they took down the Colts. I expect the Titans to lead with Henry early and try to run it down the Seahawks throats. That will, in turn, get Russell Wilson motivated and throwing and then we'll see our shootout. But the big guy eats first and that's what we're looking for here.

Let me ask this again -- do I really need to tell you about how amazing Chubb is? How hard and angry he runs? How he can bully his way into short-yardage gains and can also take off sprinting down the sidelines for huge gains and touchdowns? This guy is an absolute beast. You know it, I know it and the Texans are going to get to know it first-hand this week. You should just simply do as I do – get Chubb into your DFS lineups and then start your Sunday with a nice breakfast. It was a winning formula last week and now with a match-up against a soft Texans run defense, it's looking even better.

I've really been at odds with evaluating the 49ers defense all week and while I'm still not 100-percent, I'm leaning towards the fact that they're really just not the unit they once were. I mean, they were really gouged by the Lions ground game last week and while maybe they took their foot off the gas a little bit, when the game started getting close, you would have thought they would have clamped down even harder. They didn't, so between that and some of the injuries they're currently dealing with, I'm giving Sanders a much longer look and am liking what I am seeing. Head coach Nick Sirianni and OC Shane Steichen are using Sanders as a true bell-cow back and as both a runner and a passer. If this run defense is truly a soft underbelly for the 49ers and their defense is good in name only, Sanders could have himself a big week.

The more I dive into this match-up, the more I like Harris, even as a cash game play. The Steelers at home have traditionally been a better team than the Steelers on the road and with this match-up against the Raiders whose defense allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the running back position last week, Harris feels like a nice fit for lineups. The Ravens posted 189 rushing yards against the Raiders on Monday night and while you can cite Lamar Jackson for his 86-yard contribution, it doesn't change the fact that the three-man rotation of back-up running back still put up 98 yards between them. Harris will see plenty of volume in this game which is exactly what you want, not to mention his contribution in the passing game.

You've got to love the fact that, despite trailing throughout the game, Matt Nagy continued to feed the rock to Montgomery who finished the day with 16 carries for 108 yards and a touchdown. I would have liked to see him utilized more in the passing game, but he did run 20 passing routes which does leave him in the top-15 among running backs, so there is definite promise. Still, with at least 15 carries, Montgomery should still be able to return strong value if the match-up is right. While I won't say he's at Dalvin Cook's level, he should still be able to have a strong performance against the Bengals this week.

Just as I said in the Watch List, we could easily pivot off Melvin Gordon and onto Williams as our choice this week against the Jaguars. It was pretty close to an even split on touches between the two, but take away that 70 -yard TD run for Gordon and Williams was the better, more productive back. It would seem that more people will be on Gordon as well, so getting lower ownership in GPP contests is also a key. The Jaguars were destroyed by the Houston ground game last week and allowed the third-most fantasy points to the position. With the strength of the Broncos defense, they should be able to keep the Jags down and allow the offense to simply run the ball hard and eat up the clock which is probably even better for Williams as the team can limit an aging Gordon's touches and look to spare him some unnecessary wear and tear.

At this price and with all the FAAB spending that went down in seasonal play, welcome to Chalky McChalkerson. We expect Mitchell to be highly-owned this week as he is expected to be the lead back in the 49ers run-first offense. It's tough to sell me on a repeat of 19 carries and over 100 yards, given the way Kyle Shanahan lies to the media and the public, but if Trey Sermon is truly in the doghouse, Mitchell should see the lion's share of touches over him and JaMycal Hasty. Be sure to check out the Draft Percentage Forecaster on Sunday morning to see just how high ownership could be. 

I discussed it above, but it always bears a second mention – the Vikings secondary is not the thing upon which Super Bowl dreams are built. Patrick Peterson is not the same corner he used to be and Hopkins can easily contend with the physicality of Bashaud Breeland. He and Murray are likely to be in the Watch List and Playbook almost every week, at least until the DFS sites make them too expensive to roster. For now, these prices are just fine, especially on Draft Kings.

Poor Metcalf got all sorts of double-coverage this past week and both Tyler Lockett and Gerald Everett got to reap the benefits and soak up all the glory. Oh wait….so did Metcalf! No, he didn't hit 100 yards and no he didn't score multiple touchdowns, but 4-for-60 with a TD while seeing blanket coverage like that? Yeah, he'll be just fine, especially when he's facing a Titans secondary that won't be able to keep pace with this passing attack. Get him in your lineups and enjoy the discount.

When it comes to playing DFS, you need to have a short memory, especially when you pay up for a player and get burned. That's exactly what happened to us with Ridley last week and now everyone is running for cover as the Falcons are set to match up against the Bucs this week. But we know how tight most divisional games can get and Ridley actually has a strong history against Tampa. In fact, he's logged 24 catches for 300 yards and two touchdowns over his last three games against this Tampa defense. With Tampa losing Sean Murphy-Bunting and Carlton Davis questionable for this game, Ridley should have softer match-ups even if they float the safety his way too. Yes, the Falcons offensive line needs to show up and help protect Matt Ryan, but he also knows he needs to get rid of the football earlier. Ridley can help with some underneath routes and just rely on his ability to pick up yards after the catch. I have him listed as both, but I may limit my usage of him to just GPP until I see this Atlanta offense humming on all cylinders.

The Titans were really struggling to get anything going on offense which should show defenses that, if you can stop Derrick Henry, the passing attack struggles. Ryan Tannehill works best out of play-action, so expect the Titans to run hard at the Seahawks and hopefully open things up downfield. The Seahawks don't have the corner coverage to keep up with a guy like Brown and he is still the main target in Tennessee even with Julio Jones around. If anything, Jones' presence will help Brown overall as it pulls coverage. Look for Brown to get into the end zone again this week, but with a whole lot more yardage.

The Eagles secondary is still getting all sorts of love following their shut-down of the Falcons last week, but that was more about the offensive line struggling than it was great coverage. The 49ers line will hold and Jimmy Garoppolo should have no trouble keeping the time and finding his receivers downfield. Samuel may not put up the 9-for-189 and a TD again, but he's going to continue to see a strong share of the targets and this Eagles secondary is likely to struggle more this week.

The 55 over/under on this game, obviously, indicates shootout and possibly even a game-stack in DFS. So why wouldn't we look to the guy who is expected to be Dallas' most-productive wideout this season? Not much changes with Michael Gallup out as Lamb will line up on the outside in two-receiver sets and move into the slot when the Cowboys use three. With Chris Harris out for the Chargers, things could open up dramatically for Lamb and he could see a boatload of targets as these two heavyweight offenses slug it out.

From the Jalen Ramsey shadow to one from Chidobe Awuzie? Is that even a thing? The Bengals big free agent spend was Trae Waynes and he's already been ruled out for the week. That means Awuzie will be tasked with watching ARob because they certainly don't want Eli Apple or Darius Phillips on him. It's a real shame Andy Dalton will be the starting quarterback again this week, but if you cite the revenge game narrative for the QB, maybe the receiver can reap the benefits. You can also go with the potential double-humiliation narrative and think that if the Bears are stinking it up on offense, maybe Dalton gets benched while here in Cincinnati and Justin Fields comes to the rescue.

Everyone and their grandma will be on Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and even Rob Gronkowski, which means I will happily take advantage of the price drop and use Evans as the contrarian play this week. Whether he's with the Patriots or the Bucs, Tom Brady loves to spread the ball around and throw it where the defenders aren't, so expecting Evans to put up a second consecutive garbage week seems wrong. Neither A.J. Terrell nor Fabian Moreau have the size or the speed to keep pace with Evans and if Brady throws up some jump balls in the end zone, Evans, with that great vertical leap and monster wing-span will be grabbing everything that comes his way. 

As we predicted in the offseason, Williams is primed for a breakout and opened the season with an incredible strong effort, finishing the Sunday with eight catches for 82 yards and a touchdown on 13 targets. This offensive scheme does fantastic things for the X-receiver (just ask Michael Thomas) and Williams is that guy. Keenan Allen will always be Justin Herbert's bread and butter, but Williams looks like he's ready to take that next step towards greatness. Again, while Dallas made all these strides on defense during the draft, they are still dealing with a number of issues on that side of the ball which will allow opposing offenses the freedom to carve up their secondary.

He's Matthew Stafford's new best friend. That's, pretty much, all you need to know. The Rams offensive attack is going to be strong this season and the passing game is going to be the primary reason. Stafford is happy and he and Kupp are working together night and day to get their timing right and the two, along with Robert Woods and Van Jefferson are sticking to each other like glue so they know all the nuances and tendencies of each other on the field. So long as they continue to receive the support of a decent ground game, this passing attack could be deadly and Kupp looks like he's ready to be the one to lead the way. If you need the pay-down, Woods should still, very much, be in play this week as well. 

In the realm of full transparency, I'm still not sure how the target distribution will look now that Jerry Jeudy is out. I had Tim Patrick in the Watch List, I like K.J. Hamler even though he dropped an easy touchdown and looked like a buffoon doing it, but seeing Sutton at this price, especially on DK and Yahoo, and knowing his overall level of talent, I'm having a tough time passing him over. He's also got a great match-up this week, obviously against Jacksonville, but more specifically C.J. Henderson who doesn't grade out in coverage very well and is probably still feeling disrespected by the rumors that the Jags were trying to trade him in the offseason. I'll say GPP only for Sutton and see if he can deliver the goods.

Well, apparently a football doesn't need stripes to be caught, amirite? Chase looked fantastic last week and led the team in snaps, routes-run, targets and target share and all the other usual offensive categories, including nose hair. Knowing how hard Joe Burrow lobbied for the team to draft his BFF, you have to believe the QB will force-feed targets Chase's way and the two will conect early and often against this Bears defense. Volume, volume, volume.

An absolute stud in the preseason, Callaway pulled a serious vanishing act in Week 1 against the Packers. Granted, he was dealing with a lot of Jaire Alexander, so your expectations should be kept in check. This week, let's take advantage of the still relatively low price and look for Callaway to break out against Carolina. He'll likely see a lot of Donte Jackson which grades out as a positive match-up for the receiver. I'll leave him as a GPP-only player because there are definitely other “sure-things” out there, but he's really got the chance to blow up here and with very low ownership.

An obvious play here, but one that should always bear mentioning, especially with the volume Waller saw a whopping 19 targets last week against the Ravens and wrangled in 10 catches for over 100 yards and a touchdown. And don't let the catch-rate fool you as Derek Carr was definitely struggling with his accuracy. He's pricey for sure, but with a limited receiver corps on this team, he's going to see a boatload of targets on the regular.

I'm sure people were expecting more out of Kittle last week, especially given the match-up and the price tag. But while 4-for-78 isn't the worst thing in the world, it isn't great. We need more out of him this week and it's going to be very interesting to see how things go against the Eagles this week. I said earlier that I am not buying the Week 1 defense we saw, so while they may have stifled Kyle Pitts, Kittle should be a whole different story. We'll keep tracking the Eagles here as, hopefully, they'll reveal some weaknesses which the 49ers can take advantage.

Gronk 2.0 looks happy and ready for action this season which means he and Tom Brady are going to continue to seek each other out on the field and keep that bromance alive and well. The Falcons gave up 76 receiving yards and one touchdown last week to the tandem of Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz. If Brady is locked onto Gronk this week, he can at least post similar totals by himself.

Even though the price went up from last week, this could still be one of those plays people regret missing when the week is over. Pitts' ownership was through the roof last week and everyone who used him was disappointed in the output. That could keep a lot of people off of him, save for the die-hard truthers. While the Cowboys tight ends didn't bring much to the table against Tampa last week, the Bucs defense did allow the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the position last season. All of the starters were back this season and now they've lost a couple to injury, so we'll keep the faith, at least for one more week. 

While Zach Ertz doesn't carry an injury designation coming into this week, he missed practices during the week and allowed Goedert extra time to build his rapport with Hurts. The 49ers lost LB Dre Greenlaw which is going to hinder the coverage against the tight end position and if last week's performance by T.J. Hockenson is representative of what tight ends can do to this 49ers defense, you're going to want Goedert in your lineups.

Another nugget from the preseason as I was quick to point out that Cook followed Joe Lombardi from New Orleans where he averaged 600 yards and eight touchdowns per season during his two-year stint. Cook was targeted eight times last week and churned out five catches for 56 yards, so in a high-scoring shootout, he could see at least that much in the way of targets, not to mention some great red zone looks in mismatched coverage. This just might be my favorite pay-down at the position this week.

Everett still split some of the snaps with Will Dissly, but his size, speed and physicality shined bright in his debut game against the Colts and he should be able to perform similarly against the Titans. There was no tight end action for the Cardinals against Tennessee last Sunday but they also don't feature one or have much in the way of able-bodies. I'd like to see more targets come his way, even at this price, but if he's going to remain a red zone target for Wilson, we can try and reap the benefits.

Vic Fangio has done some outstanding work with this defense in the three years he's been with the organization and has transformed them into a fierce unit. What I like most about them this week is that it's a veteran coach who is really good at disguising coverage and blitzes against a rookie quarterback. Lawrence threw three picks last week against  a horrible Texans secondary. Imagine what the Broncos can do.

The on-field personnel may change, but it's still Bill Belichick toying with the Jets. He is the ultimate evil genius and should have little to no issue tormenting a rookie quarterback. The Jets might try to keep things a little conservative o not to open the door too wide for turnovers, but again, this is Belichick at the helm.

Probably my favorite defensive match-up on the slate. The Texans played way over their head last week and if they even remotely think they can play as fast and loose as they did against the Jags, they're in for a very rude awakening. The Browns defense was all up in Patrick Mahomes' grill last week so Tyrod Taylor is going to have some serious issues in this one.

This is an interesting one because, obviously, they were one of the highest scoring defenses last week, but how much was it the Saints or Aaron Rodgers sucking? Decisions, decisions. Given the fact that it's a divisional game and the Saints are fairly well-acquainted with Joe Brady's offense, they should play them pretty tightly and maybe induce a couple of turnovers if they read the plays right.

If you listened to the NFL DFS Podcast with me and Jon Impemba, you know how in love with this defense he is…when they're at home, of course. The Raiders are going to be without Josh Jacobs this week and while it was impressive to see them beat the Ravens in Week 1, it seems unlikely that they can pull that off again after traveling across country. It's not like their offense was even really that impressive, If the Steelers D does again this year what it's done at home in the past, then this is a huge bargain that should sit in all of your lineups.