NFL DFS Watch List: Week 3

There's not a whole lot to the analysis with this match-up, nor does there really need to be. The Lions defense is bad. Very bad. They've been bested by Aaron Rodgers and Jimmy Garoppolo/Trey Lance so far and none of those quarterbacks come close to Jackson's rushing upside. Let's keep tabs on ownership numbers this week because I have a feeling we're going to see him all over the cash lineups this week, as well as a number of Ravens stacks for GPP tournaments. 

While he's not doing much running, Wilson continues to be an elite QB worthy of starting each and every week. He's averaging just under 300 passing yards per game and has six touchdowns to no interceptions over the first two weeks of the season and now gets Minnesota, a team whose pass defense is in shambles. Mike Zimmer's secondary is usually pretty strong, but they've been awful to date, allowing almost 300 passing yards per game. On top of that, the Vikings have allowed a total of 61 points on the season and opposing QBs have a 123.6 passer rating against them. He hasn't let us down yet and I don't think he will this week either.

He's thrown for an average of 337.5 yards through the first two games and would actually have more than two touchdowns had the refs not be so liberal with the yellow laundry on the field this past week. But this is fixing to be a classic AFC West shootout and the over/under of 55.5 tells you all you need to know. Herbert is going to have a number of different outlets in this match-up and the Chiefs have already allowed 65 points through their first two games. If you thought Week 2 against the Ravens was a heavyweight prize fight, just wait until you see what happens when Herbert is trading blows with Mahomes all day.

JUST ADDED – It's no secret that the Seattle defense is far from what it once was, yet most people continue to believe they are just as effective as they ever were, dating back to the Legion of Boom. That's just not the case and while they haven't yielded a ton of yardage through the air (271.5 ypg), opposing quarterbacks have been fairly efficient, posting a 98.1 passer rating over the first two weeks. Cousins knows his defense can be just as porous, so while we expect to see a lot of Dalvin Cook, that is going to open things up more in the passing game later on. With such amazing weaponry and a 55 over/under, we can expect Cousins to be slinging the rock.

Fantasy owners are panicking just two weeks in so expect ownership to be low this week. And you know what…? I like it. I like it a lot. I'm already thinking about a Titans stack as the Colts defense is struggling in coverage, allowing an average of 255.5 passing yards per game and a 132 passer rating for opposing QBs. While the Colts are focused on stopping Derrick Henry, look for Tannehill to start slinging the rock a little more. He's got first-class wide receivers at his disposal and should be able to do some damage here.

Football is all about the match-ups, right? So while you may wince at the thought of using Jones in any DFS lineup, this match-up against the Falcons is exactly what he and the Giants need right now. The Falcons pass defense ranks 27th, they are allowing the third-highest QB rating (131.2) and have given up an average of 260 passing yards per game. Jones has bonded well with Sterling Shepard, Kenny Golladay is coming along nicely, he may get Evan Engram back this week and Saquon Barkley is one game closer to full health. 

We're going to hold our breath a little here and pray for full health. Cook was slow to get up twice this past week against Arizona and maybe that scares people. But after watching how Derrick Henry carved through this Seattle defense in the second half, you have to be licking your chops at the prospect of seeing Cook in this match-up. We know the Seattle defense is soft so seeing them allow the second-most rushing yards per game shouldn't come as a surprise. This match-up actually has game-stack written all over it.

As stated above, this has all the earmarks of being a big-tim slugfest between two AFC West powerhouses and everyone is expected to get involved. The Chiefs are allowing an average of 202 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks, they've already allowed seven rushing touchdowns and rank 27th in the league against RB pass plays. Ekeler has rushed for at least 50 yards in the first two games and last week against Dallas, he had nine catches for 61 yards. If he can see anywhere close to the same volume in this match-up, oh baby!! Watch out!

Are the G-Men ready to unleash Barkley? If there was a game to do it, this is certainly the one. The Falcons rank 27th in DVOA against the run, they're allowing an average of 127.5 rushing yards per game while allowing 47 yards per game to RB pass plays. Barkley looked great last week on the 41-yrd run and seems like he should be able to handle a strong workload in this match-up. And this price tag?? Come on. Let the big dog eat!

JUST ADDED – With all the talk about Lamar Jackson's hip (and his stomach bug), one might think the Ravens could hold him back a little given how soft the match-up is here against the Lions. Williams continues to lead this backfield in both snaps and carries and could be leaned on a little more heavily to open this game. The obvious concern is how much work Latavius Murray and/or Devonta Freeman see in the second half should the Ravens have a strong lead and just want to kill the clock, but Williams should be the lead dog in the first half which is where the Ravens will build that big lead in the first place.

The Jaguars defense is super-soft and this actually might be an opportune time to give Kyler Murray a bit of a rest and lean more on the ground game. Jacksonville is allowing 128 rushing yards per game and have given up two rushing touchdowns. They also rank 17th against RB pass plays. He hasn't gotten into the end zone yet, but his production remains steady. If you were already thinking about stacking Arizona, he should definitely be on your radar.

Who doesn't love a good revenge-game narrative, amirite? Who cares if Peyton Barber saw more carries than Drake last week. This offense is all about slinging the rock anyway as Jon Gruden is re-enamored with Derek Carr again and Drake is seeing roughly six targets per game on top of his handful of carries. Miami has been okay against running back pass plays, but they're still giving up 46 yards per game to them, 11th in the NFL. It's been a while since Drake was in Miami and those were the old Adam Gase days, but as we just heard Peyton Manning say on Monday Night Football, there are some guys who just get all amped up to play an old team.

Don't let last week's down game scare you off. Hopkins is an elite WR who is about to go ham on the Jaguars secondary and you very much want to be a part of it. Jacksonville ranks 30th in DVOA against opposing No. 1 wideouts and have allowed an average of 145.5 receiving yards per game to them. Go ahead and stare at that number some more. Lock him into your lineups this week, folks. It's going to be one heck of a ride.

JUST ADDED – While some panicky, seasonal fantasy players are giving up on Metcalf, we know he is far too talented to be taking a back seat in this offense and this week's match-up against a porous Minnesota secondary should help him announce his presence with authority. The Vikings have allowed 661 passing yards and five touchdowns through the air over the first two weeks of the season and Russell Wilson will help Metcalf get some of that action this week. Tyler Lockett is, obviously, also in-play this week, but we'll take the temporary discount with Metcalf for the time being.

The Browns secondary has been taking a few hits through these first two weeks as opposing No. 1 WR are already averaging 151 receiving yards per game against them and it's not going to get any easier with Allen Robinson this week, especially if Justin Fields is under center. Even if it's Andy Dalton, Robinson still produces. Heck, this guy has never had a high-end QB slinging him the rock and he still produces at a high end. He may see a little more of Denzel Ward, but the Browns haven't said anything about shadow coverage just yet. Either way, he warrants strong consideration this week.

It's not chasing Julio's 128-yard effort when you sit and break down his upcoming match-up against the Colts, a team whose secondary has been a serious Achilles heel thus far. Neither Rock Ya-Sin nor Kenny Moore are going to be able to hang with either Jones or A.J. Brown and they can only float safety help over to one side without leaving a gaping hole in the middle of the field. The Colts rank 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR2 and are allowing an average of 131.5 receiving yards per game to them. Expect another strong game for the veteran wideout. 

It's been a busy beginning to the season for Hollywood who has seen 16 targets which he's turned into 12 catches for 192 yards and two touchdowns, and it's going to stay busy this weekend when the Ravens face the Lions. How busy? Well, the Lions rank 24th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and they've already coughed up an average of 157 receiving yards per game. Yeah, it's going to be that busy.

The breakout is upon us! After four frustrating seasons where we were expecting more than what we got. Williams has certainly delivered the goods this season, though, with 15 catches for 173 yards and two touchdowns on 22 targets and we expect things to keep on rolling. I said it throughout the preseason and you saw it in the Fantasy Alarm NFL Draft Guide – this offensive scheme that Joe Lombardi brought over from the Saints funnels a boatload of targets to the X-receiver. That was what happened with Michael Thomas and that's what is happening with Williams right now. The fact that he will be featured in a shootout against the Chiefs where the over/under is 55.5 makes this all the more tantalizing. 

You know it's going to happen, right? Everyone and their grandmother will be on Cooper Kupp and we're going to cash our tickets using Robert Woods. That's what happens to mindless sheep on a routine basis. Carlton Davis will likely spend most of his time on Kupp while Woods will match up against Jamel Dean or even Ross Cockrell, neither of whom grade out particularly well against Woods. Have faith that Sean McVay knows what he's doing and expect to see Stafford spread it around more. Oh, and how about this price discount too? Roughly $1800 cheaper for Woods? Yes, pelase.

From landing on the injury report late in the week to dominating the Rams secondary with eight catches for 123 yards last week, Michael Pittman looks like he's ready for the breakout we've been anxiously anticipating. The Titans secondary looks incredibly weak and Pittman should have little to no issues. The one thing standing in his way is the QB. Believe it or not, we like him a lot more with Carson Wentz under center than Jacob Eason. Just sayin'.

While William Jackson and Kendall Fuller stay on the outside covering Stefon Diggs and Emmanuel Sanders/Gabriel Davis, Beasley is going to be running wild out of the slot with Benjamin St-Juste attempting to cover him. He saw 13 targets in Week 1 but was cut down to just four in last week's contests against a much tougher Miami secondary. Well, tougher in the realm of slot coverage, that is. Beasley should see ample targets in this one and Josh Allen could lean on him pretty heavily, even inside the end zone.

JUST ADDED – Garbage-time points still count, people! We may not love the Lions or believe they will beat the Ravens, but we've seen them score some points over the first two weeks of the season and Cephus has scored a touchdown in both games. With Tyrell Williams on IR due to lingering concussion symptoms, Cephus steps in as the top receiving option on this team. Maybe that warrants him coverage from Marlon Humphrey a lot of the time, but we aren't hearing anything about shadow-coverage. If you're looking to save some salary for your GPP tournaments, Cephus could be exactly what you are looking for.

Tough luck for the Ravens as they opened the season against Darren Waller, took on Travis Kelce on Sunday night and now face Hockenson, who has already seen 20 targets this season which he's turned into 16 catches for 163 yards and two touchdowns. The Lions passing game revolves around him and this week won't be any different, especially because the Ravens have been burned so badly by the position. George Kittle has been struggling so the world is looking for another guy for the Big 3 TEs. Maybe it's Hockenson after this week…?

Or maybe it's Pitts? We've had incredibly high expectations for the rookie coming into the season and we're still waiting for that big game that is supposed to define him. He took a step forward last week and now has what should be a pretty soft match-up. The Giants rank 17th in DVOA against the tight end and allowing an average of 77 yards per game against. The key, though, is that this is how teams have attacked them so far and while neither Noah Fant nor Logan Thomas had crazy big games, the production was steady. If Pitts gets that kind of work, he can turn it into something more.

Let's go, baby! The MANdrews against the Lions? Yes, please. Detroit ranks 32nd in DVOA against the tight end position and has allowed an average of 77.5 receiving yards to them this season. We haven't seen him break out just yet, but knowing his track record, he's an easy one to love this week. It would have been nice if they actually lowered his price tag even just a little bit this week, but he's still a solid option if you're looking to stack Ravens. 

Just as he was in New Orleans, Cook is being well-targeted in this offensive scheme and had it not been for a bogus holding penalty called against the Chargers, he would have logged his first touchdown of the season last week. Cook has the size you want in a big pass-catching tight end and he'll match up real well against the Kansas City defense which ranks 20th in DVOA against tight ends and is allowing an average of 93 yards per game to them. Remember, this is a guy who averaged 600 yards and eight touchdowns per year under Joe Lombardi and his system in New Orleans. 

How's this for a dart throw? If….and that's a big if…Engram suits up and plays this week, he's got an extremely favorable match-up against the Falcons. Atlanta ranks 30th in DVOA against the position over these first two weeks and while yes, the sample size is small, we know their linebackers struggle in coverage and they don't have the secondary chops to bring the safety in to help. Of course, there are always the drops for this guy, so stick to longshot GPP tournaments only with him.

JUST ADDED – While the Browns are getting back Odell Beckham this week, they are still going to be without Jarvis Landry and that's a reliable passing outlet that needs to be replenished. Receivers like Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins will certainly merit attention, Hooper has been the lead tight end in snaps at the position. Yes, David Njoku has seen a similar snap-count through these first two weeks, but Hooper is also the guy leading the position in routes-run. With no Landry, expect Hooper to be a guy who helps move the chains and is also a big body inside the red zone.