NFL DFS Watch List: Week 4

Hurts did a solid job against the Cowboys on Monday night. It was the play-calling from Nick Sirianni that stunk. With any luck things get corrected this week as the best way to beat the Chiefs is to run hard early and try to control the clock. If they can stick to that game-plan early, it will open up a lot more RPO opportunities for Hurts and you'll start seeing him systematically shredding the defense. Again, the rushing upside is also huge which is why we can use him in both cash and GPP.

What's not to love about using Aaron Rodgers this week? He's facing a Steelers team that ranks 23rd in DVOA against the pass and has allowed 266.3 passing yards per games with six touchdowns through the air. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 106.0 passer rating against them and with the way Rodgers was slinging the rock in San Francisco, he is going to be a highly sought-after quarterback this week.

I would have thought Daniel Jones could have had a bigger game against the Falcons last week, but he did lose two of his top receiving targets to injury during the contest, so we're not going to thumb our nose at Heinicke in this match-up. The Falcons have coughed up eight passing touchdowns on the year and while opposing quarterbacks aren't throwing for a ton of yards against them, they are playing an extremely efficient game. WIth Heinicke's weapons, he should post strong numbers.

This game is going to be incredibly interesting as both teams have strong ground games and suspect secondaries. Nick Chubb should see a ton of work and Kareem Hunt should get his share as well. The same should happen on the other side whether it's Dalvin Cook or Alexander Mattison. All of that ground and pound is just going to open things up for the passing game and you can expect Mayfield to take numerous shots downfield with OBJ and his other wideouts. There's a reason the over/under is 53.5.

JUST ADDED – This falls in line just like the Mayfield play. We know the Vikings are going to run heavy with Dalvin Cook…or Alexander Mattison, whomever starts. But once this game starts going back and forth and the offenses start to kick it into high gear, there are going to be plenty of shots taken downfield. The Browns may only be giving up about 182 passing yards per game, but they've allowed five touchdowns through the air and they rank 19th against the pass, according to DVOA numbers. Cousins has thrown for over 300 yards in two of his three starts so far and this game's total is pushing well over 50 according to Vegas.

I mean…is analysis necessary here? Probably not. 

YoU sHouLd StArt derRiCk HEnrY becAUse ThE jETs aRE teRRiBle!

While we don't know who the quarterback will be, we can probably rest easy with the knowledge that Montgomery is going to be running the ball quite a bit. The Lions rank 26th in DVOA against the run and are allowing almost 115 rushing yards per game. The Bears are going to want to control the clock and the pace of the game, so while this could be one of the uglier games played this week, we can still find some fantasy deliciousness.

He saw just two carries on Monday Night and that will be more than enough to keep people off him  When that happens, when ownership is low, that's when we want a big piece of him because there is no way Sirianni takes so much criticism all week about not running the football and then doesn't run it down the opposition's throat. Sanders will be a highly-used asset in this match-up with the struggling Chiefs.

JUST ADDED – You have to give him a look even if it's just for the value. But Hubbard could emerge as this year's Mike Davis in that he could find plenty of success in Joe Brady's offense playing the Christian McCaffrey role. The one caveat, which is why he's listed as GPP only right now, is the presence of Royce Freeman who has shown the ability to catch passes out of the backfield. We'll see what the practice reports say leading into Sunday. 

He's seeing more snaps and carries than Devin Singletary and he's also the more reliable pass-catcher. Now that he's at full health we can probably look to Moss as being the new alpha in this backfield. The Texans are a soft defense and we should see plenty of Moss in the second half chewing up the clock and hammering in the final nails into the Texans' coffin. The fact that they also rank 30th in DVOA against the run is just an added bonus.

We know Kyle Shanahan loves to rotate his backs and yes, we may see Elijah Mitchell and/or Kyle Juszczyk get involved again. But the Seahawks defense is primed for a beating on the ground as they give up the third-most rushing yards per game (155) and have allowed three rushing touchdowns through the first three games. The 49ers will stay with a run-heavy game-plan early on and that should only prove to be a big confidence booster to Sermon. **UPDATED** I'm off Sermon if Elijah Mitchell plays. On the other hand, I'd probably be more into Mitchell if he is active. We'll check the injury report on Saturday when the Playbook comes out.

This Steelers defense just doesn't look good, does it? As I stated above, they are giving up 266.3 passing yards per game and have been burned for six passing touchdowns already. Neither Joe Haden nor Cameron Sutton can hang with Adams in coverage and he should have a field day burning them regularly. I'm feeling a Packers stack this week and it all starts with Rodgers and Adams.

You know this is when everyone tells you Buffalo is going to run the ball all day and you won't get any passing work from Josh Allen or Stefon Diggs, right? Of course. Well take your Captain Obvious cape off and but on your contrarian hat. When they zig, you zag. Yes, the Bills will spend a good chunk of their time running the ball and killing the clock in the second half, but they need to get that comfortable lead first and that starts with Diggs. Houston doesn't have the corners to contain this man.

We're going to be in on Adam Thielen as well, I'm sure, but I like leaning on Jefferson a little more this week. The Browns rank 26th in DVOA against opposing WR1s and they're allowing an average of 121 receiving yards per game to them. At some point things will click for the Browns secondary, but this is not the game where it happens.

He's the clear-cut favorite for Sam Darnold and while yes, they looked good in coverage against the Eagles on Monday, the Cowboys are still allowing and average of 331.7 passing yards per game and have given up seven passing touchdowns. There were rumblings that Christian McCaffrey could be back, but it doesn't seem likely. Without their top offensive weapon, they'll probably turn more to the pass. UPDATE: Looking to possibly pivot to Robby Anderson with news that Trevon Diggs could shadow Moore.

LOVE McLaurin this week. Heinicke has proven to be a very competent quarterback and he should have no trouble locating his No. 1 target downfield in this match-up. The Falcons rank 31st against the opposing No. 1 wide receiver and have already allowed a total of eight passing touchdowns this year. This game has all the earmarks of an FI Terry-bomb to open the game's scoring.

JUST ADDED – The Seattle defense is nowhere near what it used to be and while Tre Flowers tends to do a decent job in coverage, he's not going to shadow Samuel who moves from the outside to the slot regularly. Brandon Aiyuk may also be considered for GPP contests due to his work in two-receiver sets. With the expectation that this game turns into a bit of a shootout, it might just be a matter of price and who you can fit.

If I have Baker Mayfield listed, he's going to need to throw it to someone, right? The VIkings rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 wide receiver and they're allowing an average of 82.9 receiving yards per game to them. OBJ had a nice return to the field last week and had one sideline catch that looked like vintage Beckham. He should see ample targets and receptions once this game open up.

I know DeVonta Smith gets all the attention, but Reagor appears to be the guy who is really coming into his own. The Chiefs rank 22nd against the opposing WR2 and are giving up 76.7 yards per game to them. Reagor has the route-running ability to handle the sideline work and underneath slants, but he's also got the speed and hands to stretch the field and catch those deep passes.

This is likely going to be a volume play and Waddle should get more love in the full-point PPR scoring format. He saw 13 targets last week from Jacoby Brissett and the two should connect again this week as the Colts secondary – Rock Ya-Sin and Kenny Moore to be specific – is routinely struggling in coverage. We'd like to maybe see some red zone targets, but for now, the reliable work between the 20s could help us out in cash games.

JUST ADDED – We're also going to be looking closely at Chester Rodgers and possibly even Josh Reynolds now that both Julio Jones and A.J. Brown have been declared as out for Sunday. The Jets pass defense is weak on the outside, but be wary of their slot coverage which ranks sixth in DVOA. Two-receiver sets will feature NWI and Rodgers, but when they go to three, Rodgers moves to the slot most likely with Reynolds getting his work in on the outside.

If Kelce is on the slate, he is a must at the tight end position. The Eagles allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and just a quick look at what Dalton Schultz did to them on Monday tells you all you need to know. Figure out a way to fit his price in and you'll be all set.

The Falcons rank 27th in DVOA against the TE position and they're allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to them. Thomas only saw four targets last week, but just like in Week 2 against the Giants where he saw seven, he should be an active part of this passing attack. If you insist on building lineups without Kelce, Thomas should suffice.

The Ravens have allowed the most fantasy points per game to the TE position and they just keep getting hammered with the worst match-ups. They've now faced Kelce, Darren Waller and T.J. Hockenson with Fant coming up now? Not sure which TE god the Ravens pissed off, but they're going to continually get punished here.

With Jarvis Landry out, Hooper should continue to see red zone looks as that big-bodied target inside the end zone. The VIkings rank 31st in DVOA against the position and they've allowed an average of 71.3 yards per game to them. Harrison Bryant may take a share of that workload, but but as we saw last week inside the 20, “Hooper drives the boat, Chief!” 

OK, so you want a dart throw? Here you go. This is probably about as dirty as I'll get with the tight ends. Maybe Andrew Cooper has some filth for you, but I'll stay on Kmet for the match-up with the Lions, who have allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Whether it's Justin Fields or Andy Dalton (or even Nick Foles), someone should lean a little heavier on Kmet in this match-up.