NFL DFS Watch List: Week 5

What's not to love about Murray and the Cardinals right now? They're 4-0, shrugged off the pundits who cried “trap game” when they went to Jacksonville and then soundly beat the Rams. Murray had a modest game compared to what he usually does – just 268 yards and two touchdowns with 36 rushing yards – but we all know how dangerous the Rams defense is. Now he gets the 49ers whose defense looks like a shell of its former self. They're only allowing 218.3 passing yards per game, but they've given up seven touchdowns through the air and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Given how five of the top quarterbacks aren't even on the main slate, he feels like a no-brainer. 

What in the world is this price on Draft Kings? Yes please! The Giants are giving up almost 260 passing yards per game, seven passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks are posting a 106.2 passer rating against them. They're also giving up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the QB position. With the way the Dallas offense has looked over these last two weeks, this is going to be a nightmare game for Big Blue.

Yes, yes…he leads all quarterbacks with rushing touchdowns. We know. It's the stat everyone seems to be focused on. But rather than center your analysis on that, pay more attention to the nine touchdowns through the air the Eagles have allowed. Or how about the 114.0 passer rating all QBs are collectively posting against them? No one was bullish on the Eagles defense heading into the season and now that they've played the Cowboys and Chiefs rather than the 49ers and Falcons, everyone is finally realizing that we were right the whole time.   

What I love most about Cousins as a GPP option this week is how no one wants to use him after that horrible stinker at home against the Browns in Week 4. Everyone is yammering on about the same old Cousins; the guy can't win the big game. Well, with so many off him, I'll happily stack Vikings against this tomato can defense the Lions are shuffling out there every Sunday. They'll run hard with Dalvin Cook early on, but they're going to open up the passing attack this week s the Lions are allowing almost 250 passing yards per game and have given up seven passing touchdowns on the year already.

JUST ADDED – There are a lot of questions about Daniel Jones with the most important one being – is this for real? Are we genuinely seeing growth here in his third year or is what we are seeing just a product of playing some pretty weak defenses over the past few weeks. Maybe it's a little from Column A and a little from Column B. While Atlanta and Washington's defenses are driving the struggle bus to work, both Denver and New Orleans have been relatively strong, defensively speaking. Jones is sporting a 66.7-percent completion percentage with a strong 8.2 yards per attempt and while he's only thrown four touchdowns, his passing DVOA continues to climb each week, not to mention each year he's been in the NFL. This match-up will be a true test for him as the Cowboys offensive firepower could overwhelm the New York defense. That means, for the Giants to stay in this game, Jones is going to have to light it up. 

Let's hope the team can put this Urban Meyer nonsense behind them and focus on the task at hand. The Jaguars looked solid against the Bengals on Thursday night and now get an even softer defense in the Titans. Tennessee ranks 25th in DVOA against the pass, allowing 266.8 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns allowed through the air. The loss of DJ Chark is a bummer, but with Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault and new tight end Dan Arnold, Lawrence has enough weapons to succeed in this match-up and offer a tasty return value for the price you have to pay.

Let's see….it worked last week against the Jets, so why not just repeat myself…

YoU sHouLd StArt derRiCk HEnrY becAUse ThE jAGuArs aRE teRRiBle!

Oh the Lions. They're adorable, aren't they? I'm sure Dan Campbell believes his defense can stop Cook, but that's just not going to happen. Detroit has allowed 132.8 rushing yards per game and have given up six rushing touchdowns on the season. They give up the fourth-most fantasy points per game and the Vikings run-heavy scheme is going to abuse them throughout the game. Minnesota needs a big statement game after last week's debacle and the poor Lions are going to take the brunt of the abuse.

I've got him listed as a cash game option again because Kevin Stefanski still needs to get to the doctor and have his cranium removed from his posterior. Until that procedure takes place, Chubb will simply have to rely on volume and break a long run if he wants to get into the end zone. He rushed for 100 yards last week and should have gotten into the end zone at least once, if not twice, but the play-calling was hot trash. The Chargers have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game and had to put Kenneth Murray on IR so their linebacker corps is taking a significant hit up the middle. If Stefanski is smart, he'll simply unleash Chubb and ride him all the way to victory.

It wasn't a really good test for Hubbard last week as the Panthers defense struggled against the Cowboys and the team was forced to abandon the ground game somewhere in the early third quarter when Dallas just started scoring at will. But the Eagles are giving up 150.3 rushing yards per game and have allowed four rushing touchdowns. We'll have to watch the health of Christian McCaffrey as I am seeing mixed reports of a potential return, but if Hubbard is the guy, he should be a solid play this week so longs as Selfish Sam doesn't poach all the goal-line carries.

JUST ADDED – We know he is completely in-tune with this offensive scheme as he played for two years under Andy Reid and Matt Nagy's offense is a knock-off of that system. He's versatile enough to carry it between the tackles, run it outside and, of course, to catch passes. The Bears have been giving David Montgomery roughly 15-18 touches per game and they're expected to continue that as a strong ground effort will certainly help alleviate some of the pressure from Justin Fields. The Raiders rank just 18th in DVOA against the run and 22nd against running back pass-plays. 

I absolutely hate recommending a Patriots running back, but this match-up against the Texans is a virtual lay-up. Houston is giving up 137 rushing yards per game and have allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season. There's no reason the Patriots shouldn't lean on Harris and give him a chance at a breakout, confidence-building game. It's not like they're going to have to do much in the way of passing the ball. Thankfully, the price is extremely reasonable.

It didn't quite pan out for Adams or those who used him in DFS last week, but even with Trae Waynes likely to shadow, I'm willing to use the best receiver in the game as a “contrarian” pick. There's no real data to support the claim as the Bengals coverage against No. 1 wideouts was obviously skewed for the first three weeks of the season, but as good as Waynes can be, Adams, in my opinion, is better and can/should be used regardless of match-up. Now that they've seen Aaron Rodgers go to other receivers, they can't afford to always double-cover Adams which is just fine for us.

How many times do we have to say how bad the Lions are? If you want to talk coverage numbers, then sure – Detroit ranks 25th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver and are allowing an average of 104 receiving yards per game to them. Once the Vikings have the run established and feel like opening things up through the air. Jefferson is going to have no trouble shaking covering and getting open for some big plays downfield.

So, clearly, there is favoritism going on here and the rumors of Sam Darnold not looking Robby Anderson's way because it reminds him too much of the Jets are true. Moore has blossomed right alongside Darnold in this offense and the two of them are like two peas in a pod – they're like the Panthers' version of Stafford and Kupp. Now going up against a suspect Eagles secondary has DFS players salivating as Philly ranks 31st in DVOA against opposing WR1s and is giving up 88.8 yards per game to them. Moore should continue to produce this week. 

He was shut down by Casey Hayward & Co. on Monday night and left fantasy players – both seasonal and DFS – disappointed. But opposing No. 1 receivers have been tearing apart the Browns secondary for 101.5 yards per game and you can expect Justin Herbert and Williams have a plan to exploit that. Before you freak out about the Week 4 disaster, just remember that Hayward spent his previous four seasons as a teammate to Williams and matched up with him at practice every day. No one in the Browns secondary has that on their resume.

The Arizona Cardinals are certainly a force to reckon with this year, but their defensive strengths are not found in their secondary. In fact, the Cardinals are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position and have coughed up seven touchdowns through the air. We used Samuel last week due to his versatility – the 49ers move him all over the field – and it paid off in a major way. It's going to be very similar with the Cardinals this week as they struggle against both the X and the slot receiver which is where Deebo spends most of his time.  

The Saints still believe that Marshon Lattimore is some unstoppable force in coverage, but that is crazy far from the truth these days. In fact, Lattimore's coverage skills have declined significantly over the last three seasons and He is going to have trouble keeping pace with McLaurin's speed. It's not the Falcons in coverage though, so maybe only expect one touchdowns and not two. 

JUST ADDED – Overall, the match-up against this Miami secondary isn't great for Tampa Bay but a more granular look gives Godwin a nice boost. When the Bucs are in 12-personnel, Godwin sits on the outside and goes up against either Xavien Howard or Byron Jones which is less than desirable. However, as Colby Conway points out in the WR coach, when they switch to 11-personnel (three-receiver sets), Godwin moves into the slot where he is up against either Justin Coleman or even Nik Needham, both of whom, he can torch on a regular basis. The Bucs use enough 12-personnel to know that Godwin is going to get fed an abundance of targets in a number of situations and should be the Bucs wideout you should target.

We'll continue to check on the health of Tee Higgins, but if he is out again or even limited, I'm pushing the chips all-in on Boyd again. Jaire Alexander is going to be tasked with containing Ja'Marr Chase which is going to put Eric Stokes on Boyd and that is, in technical terms, yummy delish! Green Bay ranks 31st in DVOA against the opposing WR2, so there's a really nice advantage. Now if Higgins plays without limitations, you best be getting Higgins back into those lineups. UPDATE: We are keeping a close watch on developing situations for this game. While the Packers are hoping Jaire Alexander (shoulder) can play Sunday, it is starting to look like this injury might be more severe than the team initially reported. If Alexander isn't up to the task, Ja'Marr Chase steps into a better situation. Also, it sounds as if Higgins will play which is now taking some of the shine off Boyd. With a banged-up Alexander and Higgins back on the field, Boyd loses targets and overall value. We may simply pivot to Chase or Higgins here, so keep a watchful eye.

The Panthers defense got exposed last week and while it's tough to really judge them 100-percent since it was Dallas, we can still look at Smith as someone you can utilize this week. The Panthers now rank dead last in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers and they've allowed seven passing touchdowns on the year. SO long as Hurts can extend the plays with his legs, Smith should be able to shake some of the coverage and find himself alone downfield.

While Marvin Jones is still considered the Jaguars No. 1 wide receiver, Shenault was the one who stood up when DJ Chark went down. He has spent the majority of his time playing out of the slot where he'll match-up with Chris Jackson. We should also see him on the outside against Kristian Fulton a bunch during two-receiver sets and he should be able to thrive there as well. This Tennessee defense is pretty awful, so we might be able to expect a lot more than usual for these Jaguars.

JUST ADDED – Simply put, the Lions don't have anyone and with the loss of center Frank Ragnow and tackle Penei Sewell, they aren't going to find much success running the ball. Jared Goff is going to be running for his life throughout the game and is going to need a quick release or he's going to take a lot of sacks. With T.J. Hockenson questionable and possibly out, Cephus is the only option. The Vikings secondary is atrocious and they rank 26th in DVOA against both the WR1 and WR2 so look for Cephus to line up all over the place and be the security blanket Goff is going to need. If he can get into the end zone, he should return a solid value.

How about a little dart-throw? The Giants biggest weakness in coverage is against slot receivers and Wilson has seen 87% of his snaps from there this season. That's not to say CeeDee Lamb or Amari Cooper can't have some fun too as both have taken snaps out of the slot as well, but Wilson is there most of the time in three-receiver sets and we've already seen a lot of those from the Cowboys. If you're thinking about a Cowboys stack this weekend, Wilson will be the guy who saves you enough money to add some studs elsewhere. 

You may not want to believe it, but the Bucs are terrible against the tight end. Terrible. They rank 25th in DVOA against the position, they give up almost 70 yards per game to them and they allow the third-most fantasy points per game. Gesicki has seen 18 targets in the two games with Jacoby Brissett under center and remains a major focal point in a struggling Miami offense. 

Despite the annoying drops and subpar performances, the data says this is a golden opportunity for a knucklehead like Engram. The Cowboys are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and they rank 30th against them in DVOA. We'll have to check on the health of Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, but if they're out again, maybe Engram surprises us with some key grabs and a little end zone dancing.

While Jonnu Smith's snap count seem to be steadily increasing, Henry still sees more snaps and more opportunities. I've been a big fan of both for some time now and each is going to contribute significantly to this offensive scheme. We're just still trying to figure out which one is going to make fantasy owners happier. They both saw the same number of targets last week and they both found their way into the end zone. It might simply come down to price for us in the end.

Yet another Minnesota soldier against this putrid Detroit defense and at a decent price too. Atleast on Draft Kings. Conklin has seen just over five targets per game and while he's only found the end zone once, things could/should be different here as the Lions rank dead-last in DVOA against the position and allow an average of 68 yards per game to them. If you're looking for a cheap one-off or a way to pay down in your Vikings stack, Conklin could be the answer.

Remember last year when we had Firsker in the Watch List and he went off for over 100 yards and multiple touchdowns? We do. If you don't believe me, go ask Andrew Cooper, Fantasy Alarm's other TE Whisperer. This could be a big game for the tight end, especially if Julio Jones and AJ Brown are out again. Jacksonville ranks 31st in DVOA against the tight end and the 11th most fantasy points per game to them. We'll dive in deeper as the week progresses so we can be sure….which we just might be already. 

JUST ADDED – Well, it looks like someone's getting a little cocky after his Cordarrelle Patterson hit this past Sunday as Jon Impemba is now throwing darts in the Watch List. With Logan Thomas out for the next four or five weeks, Impemba is eyeballing that minimum DK price for the Washington tight end, citing a 92-percent snap share this past week. Seals-Jones could be an intriguing dart, especially on a slate that has lost so many superstars, so we'll keep an eye out and check in on practices this week.