NFL DFS Watch List: Week 7

Nothing like kicking things off with the ultimate of revenge-game narratives, right? Stafford may be grateful to Detroit for finally trading him out of that cesspool of a team, but he still wants to show them exactly what they are missing right now. Obviously, it also helps that the Lions are allowing 252.3 passing yards per game with 12 touchdowns through the air as well. Not that you really needed to know that as you were probably just blindly playing him against his former team anyway.

JUST ADDED – While the Bears haven't allowed a lot of passing yards each week, they have allowed 10 touchdowns through the air and opposing quarterbacks have a 99.9 passer rating against them. Brady may not have Antonio Brown or Rob Gronkowski, but he still has a loaded arsenal with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and a pair of strong, pass-catching tight ends. And if you want an even bigger push for him, check out the QB Coach where Jon Impemba breaks down some home/road numbers for you. 

Great match-up for Rodgers this week as Washington has allowed 16 passing touchdowns this season, most in the NFL, and opposing QBs are posting a 104.4 passer rating against them. They also happen to be allowing the most fantasy points per game to the QB position. It's good to see him connecting with Allen Lazard again, so we can expect to see him spread the ball around a little more than usual which simply increases his opportunities to score. And who knows…maybe he runs another one in, right?

JUST ADDED – While Hurts may not be your ideal quarterback in reality, fantasy-wise, he's been a rock-solid cash game option thanks to the rushing totals. He's thrown for fewer than 200 yards in each of his last two games, but made up for it with two rushing touchdowns in each contest. The Raiders aren't giving up a lot of yards through the air, but they have allowed nine passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns. The cost of FanDuel is laughable, but the price on DK might be helpful in building cash lineups. 

I'm not ready to give up on Darnold, regardless of how bad he's looked in the last two weeks. Week 5 was definitely his fault, but you can pin last week's loss on the defense for allowing Minnesota to put up a quick 14 points on them in the fourth quarter. This is a solid match-up for Darnold or any other QB for that matter as the Giants are allowing almost 265 passing yards per game with 14 touchdowns and a 109.4 passer rating on the year. He just needs to make smarter choices and I think Joe Brady can get him right for this week.

The Falcons are coming off a bye and have had two weeks to fix their offensive line woes and prepare for the Dolphins. Miami's pass defense hasn't been all that it was expected to be and they giving up 292.5 passing yards per game while giving up a total of 13 passing touchdowns on the year. Even with a strong pair of cover-corners, the Fins are allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the QB position.

I'm a little hesitant here because the Dolphins played in London and opted to not have their bye week now. We're not sure how they're going to feel upon the return trip having also lost in heartbreaking style to the lowly Jaguars. But the Falcons pass defense has been pretty gross thus far and opposing QBs have been incredibly efficient against them, posting a 109.5 passer rating, the third highest in the league. Tua looked good in his return last week, so if he can perform at that level again, he could be a real nice option under center.

With Monday Night Football fresh in your mind, I don't feel the need to add analysis. If you feel the need for statistical analysis, 10 touchdowns already this season. Ten. 

While Stafford will, undoubtedly, look to hog most of the spotlight, you know Henderson is going to get his his touches in what should be a blow-out. The Lions are giving up 132.2 rushing yards per game, they've allowed six rushing touchdowns on the year, they rank dead last in DVOA against running back pass-plays and they're giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. Sounds delish, doesn't it? 

JUST ADDED – While a little piece of me is dying inside for even thinking about recommending Patterson, this is about making money and if we need to get our hands a little dirty, then so be it. Patterson sees enough rushing work to maintain his status as a running back and he is averaging about six targets per game and has four receiving touchdowns. The receiving work is giving him a high enough floor to use in cash games, though he is getting a little pricey, and the touchdown upside and continuous usage gives him a high ceiling for GPP tournaments. With the struggles the Miami defense has been having, this could be a strong game from him, especially since they're allowing over 125 rushing yards per game with seven rushing touchdowns.

Once again, we're on the Christian McCaffrey Watch, but if he doesn't play again, then Hubbard is in a really great spot against a Giants team that is allowing 137.2 rushing yards per game with a 4.5 yards per carry average. With the struggles of Darnold over the last two weeks, you can expect the Panthers to go with a run-heavy scheme early and allow that to open up the passing game more. That, in turn, will allow for wider rushing lanes to open and Hubbard could post his second 100-yard effort and maybe even his second touchdown.

Maybe it was because Denver's defense funnel the run up the middle which enabled Jacobs to have a strong day, but if the new coaching regime continues to hand him volume, he should have a really strong game against the Eagles. Philadelphia got burned by the Buccaneers for over 100 rushing yards last week and they're allowing 135.3 rushing yards per game on the season. If Jacobs can see the same volume he saw last week, he could be in for a big day. 

For three-straight weeks, Conner has out-snapped Chase Edmonds and there was a clear separation in carries between the two. Conner owns this backfield now and should have a grand old time running against the Texans, who have allowed 141.3 rushing yards per game which is the second-highest in the league. They've also given up a league-high 11 rushing touchdowns on the season so expect Conner to eat at the big kid's table and maybe even get seconds. 

JUST ADDED – We're going to have to continue monitoring Antonio Gibson as he returned to practice and is listed as questionable. Personally, I don't see the reason to play a guy with a fractured shin, but Ron Rivera and Scott Turner seem to feel otherwise. But even if Gibson is there, the likely game flow indicates a heavier usage of McKissic as Washington's defense is going to struggle to stop Aaron Rodgers. The hope is Gibson doesn't play and McKissic gets the majority of the work as Green Bay's defense a run-funnel, but if he does, we still like McKissic for GPP tournaments because the Packers also rank 24th in DVOA against running back pass-plays.

Washington ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass and they're allowing 89.8 yards per game, the second-highest total, to the opposing WR1. Adams lines up all over the field, so no matter which corner he faces, he's going to have tremendous success. This game has all the earmarks of a potential shootout and while the 48.5 over/under isn't ginormous, it happens to be the third-highest on the slate.

This guy has league-winner written all over him and now his best friend in the whole wide world is going to be leading the charge into a revenge-game narrative? Yes, please! The Lions rank 23rd in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers and have allowed 88.1 receiving yards per game to them. With the volume Kupp receives from Stafford, this will be one of the week's biggest no-brainers.

Another big-time name in another big-time smash-spot. The Chiefs are going to love abusing the Titans' secondary this week and it will easily be Hill leading the charge. Tennessee is giving up the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position and are already allowing an average of 85 receiving yards per game to the opposing WR1. Neither Janoris Jenkins nor Kristian Fulton, if he's even healthy enough to play, will be able to keep pace with Hill in this one.

Oh baby! Another revenge-game here as Hopkins faces the lowly Texans for the first time since he demanded to be traded out of Houston at the end of the 2019 season. Forget about the early-season struggles as his rib injury was bothering him more than he or the team was letting on. Focus instead on his two-touchdown game against the Browns and look for him to absolutely annihilate the Texans porous secondary.

We've been waiting for the Calvin Ridley of old to emerge this season and we just might get it this week as the Falcons, coming off a bye week, are looking to turn their entire season around with a huge effort this week. The Dolphins are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the receiver position and they also happen to rank 27th in DVOA against the opposing WR1.

OK, fine. So Hollywood didn't get into the end zone last week. Big deal. That has no bearing on whether or not he will this week as this match-up against the Bengals looks awfully tasty. Cincinnati has only allowed six passing touchdowns this season, but ranks 22nd in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver, allowing an average of 83.6 yards per game.

Guessing which Tampa wideout is going to pop off this week can be a difficult task. We know that Brady seems to favor Antonio Brown, but this match-up screams for Evans to get some nice volume and, likely, lead the Bucs in receptions and fantasy points this week. He'll match up with Kindle Vildor this week, a guy who loses in every match-up of physical attributes to Evans. UPDATED – With Antonio Brown expected to be out for Week 7, I like this play even more.

He was on a snap count Monday night and still led the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards. Ryan Tannehill is very grateful to have him back on the field and will be slinging the rock often in this match-up against the Chiefs. Having a guy like Henry coming out of the backfield does wonders for the paly-action scheme and once that opens up, Brown is going to have a field day against these soft Chiefs corners. If it helps to know that the Chiefs rank 24th in DVOA against the opposing WR1, here you go. They do and they allow an average of 80.1 receiving yards per game to them.  

The Giants have decided to leave Shepard in as their primary slot receiver which turns out to be spectacular in this match-up against the Panthers who happen to rank 29th in DVOA against the slot. A.J. Bouye is not the cover corner he used to be which is why they moved him off the outside, so expect a big jump in numbers for Shepard and the rest of the G-Men involved. UPDATE – Shepard supposedly had a setback during Friday's practice and is now listed as questionable, once again, with a hamstring issue. We'll see what happens over the next 24 hours, but we may have to remove him from the Watch List. I would add Darius Slayton if he plays, but with so many Giants receivers hurt, the Panthers secondary isn't going to have too tough a time, are they?

Waddle looked fantastic in his reunion with Tua this past weekend and the two will get another golden opportunity to shine as they take on a super-soft Atlanta secondary. The Falcons are giving up almost 245 yards per game through the air, they've allowed 11 passing touchdowns and rank 29th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver. We won't predict another two-score game for the rookie, but it certainly wouldn't be out of the question.

JUST ADDED – With news that Sammy Watkins is out for Week 7, Bateman becomes a much more interesting option this week. People have been clamoring for his breakout and while the player is incredibly talented, this is really the first legitimate opportunity he's received. Lamar Jackson will still lock on Hollywood Brown and Mark Andrews, but Bateman should see a few targets come his way, especially if the Bengals keep this game competitive. He's a GPP only play right now, so keep that in mind, even if you're in need of some salary relief.

Paying up for Kelce hasn't been what many have expected over the past two weeks, but the Titans have now given up touchdowns to tight ends in each of the last two games. There is no telling what Dawson Knox would have done to them on Monday had he not gotten hurt, but his back-up coming in and immediately scoring on a pass from Josh Allen indicates nothing but great things for tight ends everywhere.

If you're not paying up for Kelce, you're paying up for Waller. The Eagles are allowing an average of 51.5 receiving yards per game to the tight end position, they rank 20th in DVOA against the slot where Waller lines up often and they're giving up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to them. Push the chips all-in, baby!

The Lions rank dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing 51.3 receiving yards per game to them. With Stafford looking to sling the rock against his former team, you have to think that there will be a few recipients of his good will. Higbee has two touchdowns in his last four games and has eight red zone targets in his last four. 

And just like that, the days of the world's best bargain are now gone. So much for 100-percent of the snaps at the minimum price. The Packers give up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and rank 22nd against them in DVOA. If RSJ continues to get this kind of attention, he'll be a staple in the Playbook and could end up as this year's Robert Tonyan. Oh, the irony of that statement with him facing the Packers this week!

You never get a second chance to make a first impression, Zach. Now that he's got the position back to himself and has a much better QB throwing to him in Kyler Murray, I fully expect Ertz to return to form and be one of the top tight ends in the league once again. He caught a touchdown in his final game with the Eagles and now that he's facing a putrid Texans defense that allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end, he should do some end zone dancing in his first game as a Cardinal as well.