NFL DFS Watch List: Week 8

Fresh off a bye and right into a divisional match-up against the Dolphins, Allen is going to be a popular play this week regardless of his cost. The Fins are allowing almost 300 passing yards per game, they've coughed up 15 touchdowns through the air this season and are giving up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the QB position. Not to mention, his ability to rack up rushing yards and potentially pick up a touchdown on the ground for himself. Lock him in if you're paying up.

While he hasn't been playing well and someone is circulating rumors that the Eagles could turn to Gardner Minshew at some point, Hurts has been very effective for fantasy, including DFS cash games. I'd be hard-pressed to use him on FD, though, as I would just pay the extra $400 to get Allen, but the price is right on DK, especially with this match-up against the Lions. In case you weren't aware of Detroit's struggles, they are allowing 263 passing yards per game, have given up 15 passing touchdowns and opposing QBs have posted a league-high 114.5 passer rating against them. 

What's not to love about Joe Burrow? This match-up against the Jets is like a gift to the city of Cincinnati. New York is allowing 275 passing yards per game and opposing QBs have been extremely efficient, posting a 102.2 passer rating. Now, the Jets have only allowed seven passing touchdowns this season which is third-lowest in the league, but are we really not believing that it's a stat waiting to correct itself? With Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, I can't imagine that number staying in the single-digits. Invest in the Bengals, for sure.

He hasn't looked great this season, but the Colts secondary could be the cure for that. Indianapolis may only be allowing 243.1 passing yards per game but they've allowed 16 touchdowns and they're still giving up an average of 21 fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. The secondary continues to struggle as Rock Ya-Sin, Kenny Moore and Xavier Rhodes are routinely blowing coverage and don't quite seem ready to turn this around. When these teams met in Tennessee back in Week 3, Tannehill only threw for 197 yards, but he had three touchdowns and he was without both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones, who got hurt and left real early on.

I'm not going to suddenly tell you that Bridgewater is ready to be back on top, because I don't really know if he is. However, with this match-up against Washington, he actually could be. The Football Team is allowing just over 300 passing yards per game and have allowed a whopping 19 passing touchdowns. They're also giving up the most fantasy points per game to the QB position, so if there is, indeed, a time for Bridgewater to right the ship, this would be it.

As much of a no-brainer as Joe Burrow is against the Jets, give me all the shares of Mixon too. I'm already salivating over a Burrow-Mixon-Chase stack in GPP tournaments. The Jets are allowing 127.5 rushing yards per game and they've given up 11 rushing touchdowns, second-most in the NFL. With the volume Mixon gets, and this match-up, he's going to be a lock for cash games and, like I said, a big part of some GPP stacks.

While we focus so much on how bad the Seattle secondary is, their run defense is just as bad, if not worse. The 134.1 rushing yards per game they allow is the third-most in the league and they've coughed up six rushing touchdowns. And you have to give Urban Meyer and the Jaguars credit – Robinson has averaged 17 carries and 97 yards per game over his last four and has five rushing touchdowns in that span. So long as he's getting this kind of workload, Robinson becomes a must when he's got a match-up this tasty on the table.  

The hope is that last week's disappointing output keeps people from using him in their lineups. This match-up against Houston looks fantastic and yes, while so did last week's against the Lions, last week was more about Matthew Stafford facing his old team than it was anything else. Henderson saw good volume, but Stafford was in his element slinging the rock to Cooper Kupp all day. The Texans are a hot mess right now and are the only team to have given up 1,000 yards on the season, not to mention a league-high 12 rushing touchdowns allowed. There should be no fear going back to this well which, for the record, comes at a cheaper cost than last week's.

The Eagles are 29th in defensive Rush DVOA and Swift is coming off a huge game against the Rams. He has taken all of the passing work from Jamaal Williams and continues to lead the team in touches overall. I think there is a legit chance the Lions win this game and Swift is among my favorites on the slate.

We've been saying all the time not to trust Bill Belichick when it comes to running back usage, but it's tough to argue against the volume Harris has consistently seen over the last three games. He's averaged just over 15 carries in that span, has produced back-to-back 100-yard efforts and has four touchdowns. The Chargers offense is coming off a bye and has ridiculous weapons, but unless they spent the bye week fixing their run defense that is allowing a league-worst 162.5 yards per game and given up eight touchdowns, Harris should dominate the line of scrimmage. Belichick is going to want to slow down the pace of this game, so expect Harris to see his usual workload.

Chris Carson still seems to be a few weeks off from returning which puts Collins in the driver's seat of this slow, plodding offense. While Monday's game was in the rain, Pete Carroll is still forcing the run regardless of the weather, so with the Jaguars on the schedule, you can expect more of the same. At least in this match-up, he'll be facing a defense that struggles against the run. The Jaguars are only giving up 114.3 rushing yards per game, but they've coughed up nine rushing touchdowns which is the fourth-most in the league. If Carroll continues to keep the pace slow, Collins should see enough volume to be worthy of a start this week, at least on Draft Kings. That FanDuel price is a bit much, though.

After a two-week hiatus, McLaurin finally posted his third 100-yard effort last week and got back into the end zone for the fourth time. He's going to need to keep that momentum rolling as the Football Team heads into Denver and he is matched up with Ronald Darby. It grades out as a positive match-up for McLaurin and the Broncos actually rank 31st in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver. Love this FanDuel price.  

Easily the front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Chase has been fierce this season. His 200-yard game last week was amazing to watch, he's got three games with over 100-yards and his six touchdowns is the second-most in the league just behind Cooper Kupp. If he continues to see his 9-to-10 targets per game against the Jets, this could be a bloodbath. New York ranks 30th in DVOA against the opposing No. 1 receiver and they're allowing 275 passing yards per game. Again, the Bengals stack is going to be chalky, so be careful of over-investing for multi-entry GPP tournaments, but if you're throwing down in some smaller single-entry, you're going to want a piece here.

While the rumors of Trey Lance replacing Jimmy Garoppolo continue to swirl, I'm not so sure that takes place this week against the Bears. Lance's knee is still an issue and Kyle Shanahan was reluctant to throw the kid to the wolves right away. I expect Garoppolo under center and that is good news for Deebo as the two definitely have a strong on-field rapport. The Bears are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and they rank dead-last in DVOA against the WR1. So long as the offensive line doesn't completely crumble in the face of the Bears' pass-rush, Garoppolo should be able to feed Deebo his usual helping of targets.

This is a tricky one as there are major concerns regarding Sam Darnold. Will he turn things around? Can he turn things around? That's going to be tough to say because we need to see it on the field. Matt Rhule has stood by him but also said the team is going to have to rely more heavily on the run. Personally, I think that's a solid idea as Darnold needs a supportive ground game to help alleviate some of the pressure. If that happens, things may open up more for play-action which will benefit Moore. The talent is, obviously, there for Moore. So is the favorable match-up against the Falcons secondary. It's whether or not Darnold can get him the ball, so we'll see if he cracks Jon Impemba's final Playbook.

The price got jacked up a little bit on FanDuel, but Draft Kings has Brown still at a very affordable cost here. We watched him and Ryan Tannehill get back on-track last week, catching eight passes for 133 yards and a touchdown, and he's got an even better match-up this week. Neither Rock Ya-Sin nor Xavier Rhodes can hang with him and he should expose a secondary that's given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and ranks 18th in DVOA against the opponent's top receiver. Derrick Henry will do the early work to get the Colts to focus more heavily on the run which should just open things up more for Brown downfield.

When Geno Smith hit Metcalf for that 84-yard touchdown pass to open the Monday night game, we thought we were in for a real treat. Unfortunately, Pete Carroll and Shane Waldron stupidly forced the run against a stout run defense and Metcalf saw just two passes thrown his way the rest of the game. Maybe it was the rain and the coaches' doubt in Smith to get the ball out, but that should, hopefully, not be the case this week as the Jaguars are giving up the second-most passing yards in the league, the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position and struggle in coverage against the opposition's top target. Come on, Pete! Stop chomping that gum and throw the damn ball!

While the Panthers are still trying to improve their secondary, they still rank 29th in DVOA against the opposing WR1, allowing an average of 85.3 yards per game to them. Ridley made his way back from his personal issues and was targeted 10 times. Yes, he only caught four passes for a paltry 26 yards, but he did get into the end zone and he's now seen double-digit targets in each of his last four games. He and Mat Ryan will connect again this week and should be able to expose the holes in the Panthers' coverage.

I've been very vocal about my dislike for the offensive scheme Pat Shurmur runs in Denver, but this is all about how bad the Washington secondary has been. They're giving up the second-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position, the most passing yards per game (300.6) and have coughed up a whopping 19 touchdowns through the air. Bridgewater may have his issues, but he can still get the ball downfield to Sutton and land the big play. If he sees his regular dose of roughly eight targets per game, Sutton should easily pay off his cost.  

Yes, I know Jalen Hurts has struggled and yes, I've heard the rumors of a potential switch to Gardner Minshew, but I'm not going to let that affect my judgement in using Smith as a potential pay-down against a suspect Lions secondary. Detroit ranks 25th in DVOA against the opponent's WR1 and they are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position. His match-up against Amani Oruwariye is the most desirable, but he's got the speed and physicality to best Jerry Jacobs as well.

Uhh…What? The price tag on DraftKings is absurdly low given the recent production we have gotten out of Pittman. With Wentz healthy and looking good these two have looked strong together and now head into a matchup against the Titans. I know the Titans defense just shut down the Chiefs but that is really the first time this season they have done anything to stop opposing offenses from scoring on them. I am willing to test that defense again this week.

It's rare that I get a case of the Beasles, but with no Dawson Knox and a match-up against the Dolphins' slot corners, this is looking like a great pay-down at the receiver position. Miami ranks dead-last in DVOA against the slot receiver, they're allowing just over 66 yards per game to them and the Fins are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the receiver position. That sub-5K price tag is really going to help out for your GPP lineups.

I am 100% in on the Lions this week as I have zero faith in the Eagles defense. They look bad. Real bad. And they're allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. They've allowed touchdowns to opposing tight ends in their last two games and are likely to struggle against Hockenson who sees way more volume than the tight ends the Eagles have faced in recent weeks.

The Texans rank 29th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing an average of 64.1 receiving yards per game to the position. They also allow the fourth-most fantasy points per game to them. Higbee doesn't see huge volume as Cooper Kupp steals most of the attention from Stafford, but he did see eight targets last week against the Lions and is coming off back-to-back five-catch weeks. He's also seen 12 red zone targets this season, six in his last two games, so he could find his way into the end zone this week.

Looky looky! It's a revenge game narrative for a tight end! My favorite! Henry has definitely found his way into the lion's share of tight end targets in this offense and has caught a touchdown in each of his last four games. Facing his old team, you can expect Mac Jones to keep looking his way inside the red zone and let him show up his former club. It obviously helps that the Chargers allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and rank 30th in DVOA against the position. 

OK, so this feels like chasing. I'm not in love with this play, but the rest of the world probably does which means you may have an opportunity to pay down at the position in cash games. The Jets rank 20th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing an average of 72.5 receiving yards per game to them. They also give up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position, so this isn't bereft of possibilities. I just think the receivers are the ones who eat against the Jets weak secondary, as opposed to relying on Uzomah.

Is Dawson Knox a system tight end? He suffered a broken bone in his hand and was replaced by Sweeney who caught his first touchdown in a relief appearance. It's actually a really nice match-up against Miami this week as the Fins allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position and rank 27th in DVOA against them. Coming off a bye, Sweeney has had time to work with Allen in practice, so we don't expect the Bills to miss a beat.

Arnold came to the Jaguars a few weeks back and has immediately jumped into the starting tight end role, playing 62% and 73% of the offensive snaps. He has 13 targets in those last two games as well. The Seattle defense has not been very good this season and if looking to punt at TE this could be the place.