NFL DFS Watch List: Week 10

You just have to put last week behind you and move on. Allen and the Bills looked horrible and maybe they were looking past this game, but you have to believe it was more of a wake-up call and now the Jets are going to be on the wrong end of a beatdown as a result. The Jets allow 275 passing yards per game, were pummeled by the Colts last week and while Jonathan Taylor did most of the damage, Carson Wentz still had a strong effort. In fact, opposing QBs are posting a 106.1 passer rating against the Jets which is the third-highest in the league. With Zack Moss dealing with a concussion and how little the Bills utilize their ground game, expect Allen to take control and dominate on his own. 

Brady and the Bucs are well-rested after their bye week and are looking to start the second half of their season in style. They get a nice treat with an opening game against Washington, a team that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and allow 286.8 passing yards per game. They've also allowed 20 passing touchdowns, second-most in the league, and are allowing a passer rating of 107.6 against them. Brady should have no trouble picking this secondary apart. 

JUST ADDED – Obviously we'll have to see if he plays, but should he, you have to love the match-up and the chip on his shoulder. Love him or hate him, anyone who heard the Rodgers interview on the Pat McAfee Show knows that he's looking to come out and shut everyone up during his first game back from the reserve/COVID list. Seattle ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass, they allow 273.9 passing yards per game and have coughed up 12 touchdowns through the air. Coming off a bye or not, the Seahawks secondary is going to have trouble with Rodgers.

Talk about flying under the radar! Wentz is averaging 251 passing yards per game and has a 14:2 TD:INT over his last six games and no one is paying attention. Well, maybe they will this week when he faces a Jaguars team that ranks dead-last in DVOA against the pass, is giving up 272 passing yards per game and is allowing opposing QBs to post a 104.8 passer rating against them. They've only allowed 11 touchdowns through the air this season but that number is about to go up again. The Colts will happily lead with the run, just as they did against the Jets last week, but Wentz will still get his…again, just like he did against the Jets last week.

Big Ben struggled with the passing yards during Monday night's win against the Bears, but should have little to no trouble against a Lions team that is allowing almost 245 passing yards per game with 15 touchdowns through the air this season. Opposing quarterbacks have been extremely efficient against he Lions, posting a league-high 112.7 passer rating and while yes, they too will lead with the ground game, that will open up plenty of play-action and allow Roethlisberger to find his weapons downfield. He's not my favorite, but he's actually cash viable in a soft match-up like this, if you're looking to pay down.   

We'll monitor the ankle throughout the week, but initially, it doesn't sound as if it is anything that will inhibit Lawrence from playing or even limit him for that matter. This is actually a fantastic match-up for him and the Jaguars as the Colts are allowing just over 260 passing yards per game and have allowed over 271 passing yards per game over their last three. Maybe they took their foot off the gas last week against the Jets, but still – allowing Josh Johnson to throw for over 300 yards in three quarters is pretty bad and the 23 touchdowns allowed through the air is the most in the league.

FanDuel isn't going to make it easy for you to get Harris into your lineups this week, but the price is quite affordable over on Draft Kings and Yahoo. He's going to be very chalky and rightfully so as this match-up against Detroit is super-tasty. The Lions are giving up 134.5 rushing yards per game with 10 touchdowns on the ground. They also rank dead-last in DVOA against running back pass-plays, so you know there will be enough check-downs and designed screens to make him well worth the spend.

One of the absolute best running backs out there against the worst run defense in the league? Yes, please. The Chargers are allowing the most rushing yards per game (161.6), the most rushing yards per attempt (5.0) and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season, which happens to be the third-most in the league. If Klint Kubiak doesn't try to get cute in this one and just leads with the run, Cook should be a fantastic play.

It will be a contentious battle of the running backs in this game as Ekeler has a soft match-up as well with the Vikings who are allowing 136.6 rushing yards per game. They've only given up seven rushing touchdowns, but Ekeler can do score from anywhere so pass or run is irrelevant. Expect a strong day from him as both teams are likely to lead with the run and allow it to open up more play-action as the game rolls on. 

Obviously, we'll monitor Zeke's practice schedule this week after suffering from a knee issue last week, but if he's out, we should be able to pivot to Tony Pollard very easily. The Falcons have given up 123.1 rushing yards per game this season, but that number jumps to 148 if you're just looking at the last three games. This game is sitting on an over/under of 54.5 as of writing this Tuesday afternoon, so if that number stays relatively close to it, Zeke should be a major factor this week.

The Bills don't do a lot of running but you simply cannot ignore what the Jets defense is giving you. We'll continue to monitor the concussion status of Zack Moss, but if he is out and Singletary is getting close to or the full complement of touches out of the backfield, then he could be in line for a surprisingly big day. The Jets are allowing the most fantasy points per game to the running back position and have allowed a league-leading 15 rushing touchdowns on the season.

JUST ADDED – If Nick Chubb and Demetric Felton remain on the sidelines, Johnson is going to get the full complement of touches against a run defense that ranks 17th in DVOA against the run, allows 108.9 rushing yards per game game and has allowed five rushing touchdowns. Getting a running back who is going to see all the touches in a run-first offense against a soft run defense is the free square we all love to see.

JUST ADDED – The Bucs are allowing an average of 257.8 passing yards per game and have coughed up 16 touchdowns through the air. Given the skill-set and the numbers he's posted to date, how do you not put McLaurin into your lineups? Hopefully Taylor Heinicke used the bye to work on some of his shortcomings and he won't make some of the dumb mistakes we saw in the first half of the season. If he can show even a modest level of improvement, McLaurin will reap massive benefits.

We're welcoming back Russell Wilson this week and that spells trouble for Green Bay who, since Jaire Alexander went down, has been struggling to cover the opposing WR1. In fact, they're ranked 24th in DVOA against the the top wideout and are allowing an average of 80.9 receiving yards per game. We also like Tyler Lockett a ton in this one as well, so if you're looking to stack, the Seachickens are a great place to look.

He's on the cover for a reason, right? Washington ranks 31st on DVOA against the pass and 21st against the WR1, who is averaging 101.5 receiving yards against them. Washington, on the whole, is allowing 286.8 passing yards per game and they've given up 20 passing touchdowns. The Football Team struggles in coverage overall, so consider the Bucs if you're stacking in GPP tournaments as well. The 51 over/under makes it that much more enticing.

The Lions rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and 26th against the opposition's top wideout, allowing an average of 86.4 receiving yards per game to them. Johnson didn't have a great game on Monday night for Week 9, but he remains the most-targeted wideout in this offensive attack and shouldn't have any trouble getting separation from Lions DB Bobby Price. 

Cooper and CeeDee Lamb both make for strong plays this week, but we have Cooper listed as the primary for now with his price comingt in a little lower. We'd love to see him targeted like he was in Week 8 when he torched the Vikings for 122 yards and a touchdowns on 13 targets, but are probably going to have to settle for the 6-to-8 range unless Dak Prescott is so hellbent on running up the score after last week's debacle. Even so, Cooper has three touchdowns in his last five games and should prove to be a reliable weapon against the Falcons.

Pittman has been outstanding in recent weeks with four touchdowns and one 100-yard effort in his last three games. He and Carson Wentz have built a strong rapport on the field, he's seeing plenty of targets inside the red zone and has a very tasty match-up against a Jaguars pass defense that ranks dead-last in DVOA against the pass. He's got a very high floor which makes him a great cash-game play, but he's also got the ability to really blow up against the Jacksonville secondary which gives him that delicious GPP ceiling.

I'll be discussing the Chargers a lot here in the second half of the season as the travel schedule gets significantly easier and that should help the team out tremendously. The Vikings have shown some improvement in the secondary, but they still rank 24th in DVOA against the opposition's second receiving weapon. They'll have a hard enough time stopping the run and trying to contain Keenan Allen which means this should be a week Williams steps back into the limelight.

We'll keep a watchful eye on the health of both DeAndre Hopkins and his quarterback Kyler Murray, because if both are in, this could be a banner day for Kirk. You have to expect the Panthers will use Stephon Gillmore to shadow Hopkins which means Kirk will get to face Donte Jackson in what would be a plus match-up for the receiver. Stay tuned to this one because should Hopkins be out, we would make another pivot, likely to Rondale Moore.

While Trevor Siemian doesn't exactly get you psyched up as a Saints fan, in fantasy, he's a decent enough option because he can pass the ball better than Taysom Hill can. The Titans secondary is weak and they're giving up the most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. Not to mention, they're allowing an average of 82.2 receiving yards on 10-plus catches to the opposition's primary receiving weapon. There's a chance we pivot to Deonte Harris, but for now, we're watching Callaway.

This poor guy can't catch a break inside the end zone, but as a PPR weapon, he could be a useful addition, primarily in cash games. The Browns rank 29th in DVOA against the opposing WR1 and are allowing an average of 90.4 receiving yards on eight catches to them. The ground game is going to have a tough time getting through the Browns defensive line and, in order to neutralize their pass-rush, you can expect a lot of short, quick passes.

As mentioned in the Trevor Lawrence section, this Colts pass defense is not good at all. Their corners are weak and they lose focus very easily. Yes, they had the Jets game in-hand and you may be able to blame the lack of focus on that, but it goes beyond that for the Colts as they still rank 20th in DVOA against the opposing WR2. We've seen glimpses from Shenault earlier in the season, so the hope is that we get another strong effort with a lot of targets here.

The Cowboys are allowing just 12.2 fantasy points per game to the tight end, but they rank dead-last in DVOA against the position and they also struggle in coverage against the slot-receiver, the other place Pitts likes to line up. With no Calvin Ridley, he should remain a focal point of the passing attack, but if we get wind that Trevon Diggs is going to shadow him at all, we may have to back off.

So long as he is reinstated from the reserve/COVID list, we can give Fant a look against an Eagles team that is allowing the most fantasy points per game to the tight end. Their DVOA ranking is in the middle of the pack, but they do give up almost 60 yards per game to the position, so Fant should see some decent opportunities both in and out of the red zone.

We'll try going back to the Conklin well again this week as he was good, though not great, in his last match-up. The Chargers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and are 30th in DVOA. If Conklin can even come close to the 72 yards per game they are allowing to the position, he'll easily return value.

Yes, more targeting against the Colts. They allow the third-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and rank 20th in DVOA against them. They're giving up 63.1 receiving yards on just over eight passes to the position, so this pay-down, especially on Draft Kings could be a great bargain play.

And just like that, we're back to more Colts against the Jaguars. This should be an interesting game and one we might stack in GPP tournaments, but if you're looking for a bargain one-off at the tight end position, you might want to give Alie-Cox a look. The Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing almost 70 receiving yards per game to them. Jack Doyle might sneak in also, given his usage near the goal-line but I like Alie-Cox more.