NFL DFS Watch List: Week 12

While the Colts are allowing fewer than 250 passing yards per game, they've managed to cough up a league-high 25 passing touchdowns and are allowing opposing QBs to post a 95.8 passer rating against them. Rock Ya-Sin and Kenny Moore may have had a decent showing against Josh Allen and the Bills last week, but facing Brady is an entirely different story. These may not be the days of old where it's Brady versus Peyton Manning, but he does still bring his A-game to Indy and has a career 102.3 passer rating with 32 touchdowns over 14 games against the Colts.

JUST ADDED – Hurts' passing numbers may not be all that enticing, but the work he does with his legs certainly is and the fact that his opponent this week, the New York Giants, allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the QB position, you have to take a long look here for DFS. Hurts is averaging 56.2 rushing yards per game and has six rushing touchdowns on the season, including three last week. The Giants defense, which ranks 30th in DVOA against the run, shouldn't present much in the way of problems for Hurts and if he can improve just a little bit on his passing, he could have an explosive week.

It's amazing how every Vikings game seems to come down to the very last play each week, but that's what they do. They keep it competitive and Cousins is a big part of it. He got away with a couple of picks called back due to penalties against Green Bay, but it's still pretty impressive that he hasn't thrown an interception since Week 5. And while he's had two games with under 200 passing yards over his last five games, Cousins still has four 300-yard efforts to go with his 21:2 TD:INT. The 49ers aren't allowing a lot of yards through the air, but opposing QBs have been extremely efficient against them, as evidenced by the aggregate 95.8 passer rating against them.

While the Bengals won last week, Burrow isn't exactly coming off the strongest of efforts as he passed for fewer than 150 yards, the lowest output of his brief career. Funny enough, the last time he faced the Steelers, he only threw for 172 yards, but he also tossed three touchdowns in that game. The Steelers just coughed up 374 yards to Justin Herbert and they're giving up 240.7 per game with 15 passing touchdowns allowed on the season. Without T.J. Watt leading the pass-rush, this front-seven has a much different look, so expect Burrow to bounce back in style.

You hate to rely on a guy who's been as disappointing as Ryan has been, but the Jaguars struggle in pass-coverage, allowing 250.6 passing yards per game and a 103.5 passer rating to opposing QBs. Not a lot of touchdowns (just 13 allowed on the year), but with a suspect pass-rush and few ball-hawkers on that defense, he just might be able to come out on top in this battle of the bottom-feeders.

On the other side of this Falcons/Jaguars game, we just might have to give some consideration to Lawrence as well. No, he hasn't played particularly well recently, but the Falcons pass defense ranks 30th in DVOA and has allowed 20 touchdowns through the air this season. The 106.2 passer rating opposing QBs have been able to produce shows you just how efficient they've been in this match-up and if there was ever an opportunity for Lawrence to really step out into the limelight, this match-up could be it.

JUST ADDED – He's a no-brainer start in seasonal fantasy and, more often than not, in DFS as well. The 49ers aren't giving up a huge amount of rushing yards each week (just 115.9), but they have allowed 13 rushing touchdowns on the season which is the third-most in the league. He's seen 20-plus carries and a total of nine targets over the last two weeks and he's gotten into the end zone in both games. The Niners DVOA numbers against the run may look pretty good, but Cook's talents transcend match-ups. 

Mixon was a beast last week, rushing for 123 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders and now gets a Steelers defense that is allowing an average of 126.6 rushing yards per game. But wait…without T.J. Watt, things have gotten even worse as the Steelers have allowed almost 175 rushing yards per game over their last three. The volume is there, the match-up is there and the passing game forces defenses to stay honest. Nothing wrong with reaping the DFS benefits off a guy with 10 touchdowns over his last seven games.

Atlanta's defense ranks 22nd in DVOA against the run, they allow an average of 123.3 rushing yards per game and have given up 10 rushing touchdowns on the season. Doesn't that all sound yummy delish for a guy who, outside of Week 1 and the game he got hurt, has received double-digit carries each week? Oh yeah, and he's also averaged one touchdown per game over his last seven. Given some of the limits on the main slate, he could be pretty chalky.

Revenge hasn't exactly been a dish served at any temperature regarding Gordon facing his former team. In two games last season he totaled 24 carries for 105 yards and six catches for 21 yards with no touchdowns. However, the Chargers run defense now is much different from what we saw last year as they are now the absolute worst in the league, allowing 145.1 yards per game with 13 rushing touchdowns on the season. He'll continue to split the workload with Javonte Williams but as we witnessed two weeks ago, Gordon continues to dominate in red zone touches with 11 in just the last five games. 

While David Johnson is still hanging around, the Texans just cut ties with Phillip Lindsay and it looks like Burkhead could end up as their primary running back. He had 18 carries last week and while you can say his touches were a direct result of the positive game flow, are we expecting anything different this week against the Jets?  My beloved Gang Green is allowing 132 rushing yards per game and they've allowed a league-high 20 rushing touchdowns this season. Burkhead beat them up back in his New England days, so why should things be any different this week? UPDATE: We just might actually be watching David Johnson a little bit more than Burkhead as he remains the primary pass-catching back with nine targets to zero for Burkhead out of the backfield over the last two games. The Jets rank 28th in DVOA against running back pass-plays and are allowing 61.3 receiving yards per game to them. If the Texans have designed screens and check-downs, it will be Johnson who shines brightest.

Well if the Jets run defense stinks, what do you think of the one for the Texans? They're allowing 133.5 rushing yards per game and have coughed up 15 touchdowns on the ground. With Michael Carter now on the shelf, Johnson likely slots in as the new primary, even though Tevin Coleman is still there. Both will get work, but Johnson has a bigger burst, is a solid pass-catcher and should be able to produce at a strong level against a tomato can defense.

Regardless of whether Jalen Ramsey stays in the slot or tries to shadow Adams, I am still ready to lock him into all of my lineups this weekend. The Rams rank 22nd in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver and are allowing 84.8 receiving yards per game to them. Adams is coming off a fierce performance where he hauled in seven catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns. He should have no trouble finding his way back into the box this Sunday. 

Jefferson is now coming off back-to-back 100-yard performances, the second of which he scored twice and now has three touchdowns in his last three games. San Francisco comes in ranking 24th in DVOA against the opposition's WR1 and I have a very hard time believing Josh Norman or Emmanuel Moseley can hang with him in coverage. The Vikings should lead with the run again to help open up the passing attack and that's when Jefferson will take over the game.

Last week wasn't a strong passing day for the Bengals as Chase saw just six targets, but he caught three of them and still found his way into the end zone, giving him three touchdowns in four games and eight on the season. Now, Mixon has another tasty match-up so we expect him to see strong volume once again, but things should still open up against the Steelers for Chase. The last time he faced them was back in Week 3 where he caught four passes for 65 yards and two scores, en route to helping Millionaire Mike take down the big one on FanDuel. Can lightning strike twice? We hope so!

Evans came away from Monday Night Football with his 10th touchdowns on the year and his eighth in the last six games. He continues to be Tom Brady's favorite, particularly inside the red zone, and should have himself another strong effort this week against a Colts secondary that ranks 23rd against the pass and has allowed a league-high 25 passing touchdowns. Evans has a physical advantage over both Kenny Moore and Rock Ya-Sin, so expect another strong performance.

Johnson was out injured the first time the Steelers faced the Bengals so there's no quick in-season reference to make. Instead, we'll rely on his seven-catch, 101-yard performance against the Chargers where he even did a little end zone dancing. He's seen 13 targets in five of his last seven games and will continue to see double-digit targets in this one. Can Chidobe Awuzie hang with him in coverage? My Magic 8-Ball says no, but you can see for yourself this Sunday.

Waddle has become a fantastic PPR option, given his 9-to-10 target average over the last six games. Whether it's Tua or Jacoby Brissett under center, the Dolphins QBs have learned to rely heavily on the rookie to help move the chains. He doesn't post breakout yardage and hasn't had a receiving touchdown in five games, but the Fins are getting more creative with him and allowed him to run one in last week on a fake. If Miami were to start using Waddle the way the 49ers use Deebo Samuel, that could spell some pretty big points.

Well look who woke up from his fantasy coma last week! People were getting worried about Williams, but 97 yards and a touchdown on five catches easily assuages most fears. Now the question is, can he build off this momentum? I think he can, especially against the Broncos this week, a defense that ranks 28th in DVOA against the opposition's WR1 nd allows an average of 62.2 receiving yards per game to them. 

I've been watching Jones pretty closely over the past few weeks as it feels like he is primed for one of those patented breakout games he likes to throw us every so often. The connection with Trevor Lawrence is still very much a work in progress, but this match-up against the Falcons looks like it's got plenty of potential. The Jaguars ranks 30th against the opposing top wideout and are allowing 68.4 yards per game to them. We've seen a lot of close plays for Lawrence and Jones, so if they can just connect early, things should run smoothly for the rest of the game.

We all know Cooper Kupp is the low-hanging fruit here, especially with no Jaire Alexander, but the Packers also struggle in coverage against the opposition's No. 2 receiver which is actually more Jefferson than it is Odell Beckham. I also think more people will flock to OBJ which will help keep ownership down on Jefferson who has seen consistent targets over the last four weeks. What also works well with Jefferson is that he is versatile enough to line up anywhere, something the Rams worked on with him over the last two season. Might be more of a GPP tournament play than a cash-game lock, but the upside is definitely there.

JUST ADDED – While D.J. Moore has seen a few more extra targets come his way, the lean for this game just might be Anderson who sees more work out of the slot – roughly 35-percent of his snaps. That puts him against Justin Coleman and Nik Needham, neither of which can really cover Anderson well enough to keep him down. While there are report from Matt Rhule saying Cam Newton's arm-strength is just fine, his yards per pass average sits at 7.0 and he's had one pass go for over 20 yards. Anderson coming out of the slot would certainly be a preferred lean, especially for this week as the Dolphins rank 31st in DVOA against the slot and allow almost 80 yards per game to slot receivers.

JUST ADDED – Are the reports out of Jacksonville for real or are we just dealing with more lip service from a coach who's led us astray before? ESPN's Field Yates reported that Meyer was looking to get Shenault some carries out of the backfield, a la Deebo Samuel, which would certainly help give a boost to his overall value if the report is true. But whether you choose to believe it or not, I actually wrote about Shenault in the NY Post last Tuesday discussing a potential bump in targets and value in the wake of the Jamal Agnew injury. If Shenalut lands back in the slot and he's getting a few carries as well, this match-up against the Falcons could be even tastier than originally perceived.

Trying to make heads or tails of this Falcons receiver group is getting a little painful. Without Calvin Ridley, they don't have a focal point in the passing attack and that's definitely been an issue for Matt Ryan. If we're going by targets and snap counts, then Zaccheaus is the leader here and someone we can look to in a soft match-up against Jacksonville. The Jaguars actually rank 30th against the opposition's top wideout, allowing an average of 67.7 yards per game to them and they also allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game to the receiver position. If you're picking one receiver from this group. here it is. Everything else is barely a dart-thorw.

Another great match-up for a tight end here as Pitts should fare extremely well as a tight end against the Jaguars who rank 30th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing almost 60 receiving yards per game to them. In fact, they also allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position and even struggle against the opposition's slot receiver which is where Pitts does a lot of his lining up. If Matt Ryan can avoid the stupid mistakes and the offensive line doesn't crumble like day-old coffee cake, Pitts could have himself a breakout-type game here.

After a lengthy absence, Gronk finally overcame his back issues and turned in six catches for 71 yards on eight targets against the Giants on Monday night. We haven't heard anything about stiffness or a need to take another game off, so we're going in with the assumption that he's going to be just fine and take on a Colts defense that ranks 24th in DVOA against the position and allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to them. 

One of the primary reasons the Chargers are so bad against the run is because they're weak up the middle. That doesn't help them very much against the tight end this week either as they'll be trying to stop Fant who can get up the field quickly and find success after a catch and run. Los Angeles ranks 28th in DVOA against the run and they're allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to them. If Teddy Bridgewater can stay sharp on the short passes, this should be a strong DFS play.

Engram didn't see much work this past week against the Buccaneers, but perhaps things change this week against an Eagles team that ranks 31st in DVOA and is allowing the most fantasy points per game to the position. It should be very interesting to see what happens with the Giants now that Freddie Kitchens is taking over for Jason Garrett, but it's tough to imagine things could get even worse, can they?

I liked this play a lot more when Joe Flacco was under center, but perhaps with the return from his knee injury, Zach Wilson will do some leaning on his tight end rather than just perpetually throwing that hero-ball down the field. It would make sense as attacking the Texans over the middle of the field has proved positive throughout the season. Houston ranks 25th in DVOA against the tight ends and they are allowing the sixth-most fantasy per game to the position. Even the Jets can't screw this one up, can they?