NFL DFS Watch List: Week 13

Obviously, we'll be watching Murray's practice schedule and updates on his health, but this is a fantastic match-up for him against a Bears team that is dealing with injuries on defense, most notably Khalil Mack and Danny Trevathan. Not only are opposing QBs playing more efficiently against the Bears (101.3 passer rating with 18 touchdowns on the year), but their run defense has been poor as well which helps boost Murray's value. If he's healthy, he should be a strong cash game option. UPDATE (12/3): The last bit of news to come in regarding Murray's status for Sunday is that he will be a game-time decision. If he plays, he's still a good GPP option, but you'll have to wait and see. 

We simply have to put last week's debacle behind us and move forward. It doesn't matter what Hurts did last week. It's all about what he is capable of against a Jets defense that struggles mightily against both the run and the pass. The Jets fit the bill perfectly as they rank 30th and 31st in DVOA against the run and the pass, respectively. He'll be able to extend plays with his legs and keep the chains moving so long as his receivers hold onto the ball this week. UPDATE (12/3): He's now listed as questionable with an ankle injury and spent all week long splitting first-team reps with Gardner Minshew. Hurts seemed pretty confident that he will play, but we're going to have to watch the Saturday practice reports and news a lot closer.

Stafford is coming off a fantastic week where he threw for over 300 yards with three touchdowns, though they did end up losing to the Packers. This match-up against the Jaguars should be a cakewalk for him and the rest of the Rams skill-position players, so long as they remain focused. They've lost three in a row and need a get-right game before they face the Cardinals on Monday night in Week 14, so they cannot look past this one because it's a soft, out-of-conference opponent. If they take it seriously, that Rams stack is going to be hot two weeks in a row.

JUST ADDED – This game has all the earmarks of being a back-and-forth slugfest and with the Bengals having the stronger run defense, I am looking to Herbert as the guy who is going to step up and put the team on his shoulders. Cincinnati ranks 19th in DVOA against the pass and is allowing almost 255 passing yards per game with 14 passing touchdowns on the year. The touchdown total isn't exactly abundant, but Herbert is going to make things happen in an effort to keep the game close and potentially win. They certainly have the weapons to do it and if you're concerned with the fact that the Chargers struggled and lost to Denver last week while the Bengals throttled the Steelers, don't. That happens all the time in the NFL. This is a new week, a new game, a different match-up and one I believe the Chargers can win.

Cousins had some moments of struggle last week against the 49ers, but he and the Vikings have an opportunity to push themselves further into the playoff picture with a resounding win over the Lions, who are still seeking their first win of the season. Detroit ranks 28th in DVOA against the pass, they're allowing 242.9 yards per game through the air and have coughed up 18 passing touchdowns on the year. Despite some rogue report from some idiot at The Athletic who suggested the Vikings lean more on the Cousins and the passing attack with Dalvin Cook out, we should expect the game-plan to remain the same – establish the run early with Alexander Mattison and allow it to open up the passing attack via play-action. It's a tale as old as time…

While he only threw one touchdown, Carr was solid on Thanksgiving as he posted 373 yards through the air on the Cowboys defense and did not turn the ball over at all. He helped put an end to the Raiders' three-game losing streak and kept them very much in the picture for the playoffs. Now he gets to face a Washington defense that ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass, is allowing the second-most yards per game through the air with 266.6 and has allowed a league-high 26 passing touchdowns on the season. We can probably expect it to be a tight game like Washington's against Seattle on Monday night, only Carr will likely throw a lot more passes than Russell Wilson did.

The Texans rank 23rd in DVOA against the run and are allowing 135.6 rushing yards per game (second-most in the league) and have allowed 17 rushing touchdowns on the season already. Even against the Jets, they gave up almost 160 yards on the ground, so just imagine what Taylor is going to do. This one should be illegal because getting Taylor in front of this Texans defense is going to look like a crime scene when he's finished with them. The only question is – can you afford him?

How amazing has Mixon been lately, huh? Coming off the bye week, he now has two-straight 100-yard efforts with two rushing touchdowns in each game. In fact, he's got two rushing touchdowns in three-straight game right now. He's getting the volume, his line is tearing open these huge lines for him and now he gets to face the Chargers who are allowing an average of 145.3 rushing yards per game with 15 rushing touchdowns. If Mixon continues to see this kind of workload, the Bengals are going to be a tough team to beat and he's going to rack up some pretty sick numbers.

In the two games where Mattison was the lead back and saw 20-plus carries, he rushed for over 100 yards each time, caught at least six passes for no fewer than 40 yards and found the end zone once. Would we have preferred more touchdowns? Well, duh. I wish all the guys I played scored more touchdowns. The opportunity is here for Mattison to, once again, dominate on the ground and he gets to do it to Detroit again, the team he rushed for 113 yards, had seven grabs for 40 yards and scored a touchdown. There's a very good reason the DFS sites jacked up his price so much, well….save for Yahoo, which means he'll be a chalk play over there for all contests.

JUST ADDED – Everyone is going to be turned off by the Giants this week, but Barkley warrants consideration as the team is going to need to finally unleash him and let him run as much as possible, especially with Mike Glennon under center. The Dolphins defense has definitely looked better in recent weeks, but three of their last four opponents have been the Jets, Texans and Panthers, so maybe those numbers are a little skewed. Miami's defense has been a run-funnel through most of the season, so if Barkley can get the volume, he's going to be a strong GPP option.

From reports I've seen, it doesn't sound like D'Andre Swift is going to be available this week which puts Williams as the lead back against a team that has been struggling against the run lately. The Vikings run defense actually ranks 26th in DVOA, they gave up 208 rushing yards to the 49ers last week, and allow 134.4 yards per game with 11 rushing touchdowns on the year. Williams isn't the pass-catcher Swift is, but we know that he is going to see plenty of volume here as the team's top running back.

You have to be enamored with the volume for Gibson since Washington returned from their bye week, as he's averaged 24 carries per game over his last three and turned that into 270 yards and two touchdowns. But even more exciting were the seven targets he saw in this last game against Seattle. Some of it, obviously had to do with J.D. McKissic being carted off the field, but he definitely proved he is capable of handling the full workload moving forward. We'll have to wait on injury updates for McKissic this week, but regardless of his status, this should be a strong game for Gibson once again as the Raiders defense is a run-funnel that is allowing almost 130 rushing yards per game and has allowed 11 rushing touchdowns on the year. If they continue to feed him the rock, he's going to produce.

While he's now gone three-straight games without a touchdown, Kupp has remained productive in all formats and is one of very few players who are not touchdown-dependent. This match-up against the Jaguars is extremely soft and he should have little to no issue producing numbers commensurate with his weekly averages. Mismatches like this tend to produce better rushing numbers for the better team, but with Darrell Henderson banged up with a quad issue, we may see the Rams maintain their pass-heavy ways.

The last time the Vikings faced the Lions, Alexander Mattison was the lead back and he had over 20 carries and 100-plus yards. Still, Jefferson racked up 124 yards on seven catches, so you can probably expect more of the same this week. It's just too soft of a match-up to ignore an elite talent like Jefferson, knowing he can easily make your fantasy day with just a catch or two because you know one is going to be a deep shot downfield…likely for a touchdown.

While I won't lock in Tom Brady after spending the past few days crying over his home/road splits, there's still going to be a passing attack and should find his way to a strong effort. He had four catches for 62 yards and a touchdown when he faced the Falcons back in Week 2 and they remain one of the weakest cover defenses in the league ranking 25th or worse in DVOA against each different receiver. With Godwin's versatility to be in the slot and on the outside, he should see a fair number of targets once again.

This might burn me this week, so I'm still wondering if going back to the Seahawks is a good idea or not. There's something amiss between Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf, but Lockett seems to be the beneficiary, averaging almost 106 receiving yards over the last two games. The 49ers have struggled against the opposition's No. 2 wideout, so Wilson could keep his attention pinned to Lockett for this one as well. I'm guessing there will be some Metcalf/Wilson discussion throughout the week, so maybe the Seattle media helps shed some light for us.

Pittman may not have had a strong game last week, but this match-up against a Houston secondary that allows 242.5 passing yards per game and 17 touchdowns through the air this season is going to be difficult to pass up. The way the offense lines up, Pittman serves as the No. 2 receiver with T.Y. Hilton back in that X-receiver role, so coverage-wise, it's a much softer match-up for Pittman. The Texans rank 28th in DVOA against the secondary wideout which should help open up his game for DFS purposes a lot more.

We've talked about the struggles for the Colts cover-corners throughout the season and in this divisional match-up, you can expect that to be exposed here by Cooks, the only Texans receiver worth a look for DFS. The last time these two teams squared off, Cooks had nine grabs for 89 yards on 13 targets and we can probably expect a similar workload. The difference, though, is that Tyrod Taylor does a better job of extending plays with his legs and allowing Cooks to complete his routes. The price tag here also allows us some salary relief even with a guy who will see double-digit targets.

Washington ranks 30th in DVOA against the pass, allowing 266.6 passing yards per game with a league-high 26 receiving touchdowns on the year. Renfrow has blossomed into quite the No. 1 wideout for this team and posted his first 100-yard effort last week. This match-up has all the earmarks of a heavy passing day for Las Vegas and Renfrow should be the prime beneficiary once again. He hasn't gotten into the end zone in two games, but that should change in a hurry this week.

The change to Zach Wilson did not disrupt the target share for Moore last week and the more the two are on the field together, the stronger this relationship is going to get. Though Moore didn't get into the end zone for a fourth-straight game, his target share was strong and this match-up against the Eagles, who rank 27th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 wideout, is going to be a soft one for him. Watching him and DeVonta Smith on the field together should be entertaining as well.

Looking for a cheap one-off who has big-play touchdown potential? Raymond just might be your guy in this match-up against the Vikings. Yes, the Minnesota secondary has been very good throughout the year, but they can get very lax and have given up the big play on more than just a few occasions. The Vikings rank 29th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 2 receiver and if he can get some separation on a post-pattern, he could be off to the races if Jared Goff can get him the ball.

So many people have been burnt by Goedert in recent weeks that this is the perfect time to use him. Ownership will be low and this match-up is just too good to pass up. The Jets rank dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to them this season. If the goal is 50-60 yards and a score, I think we've got that here.

Thomas was activated from IR and went right back to playing every snap for the Washington offense. We can debate whether something is a catch in the NFL all we want, but I know Thomas caught the ball at the goal line last week and should have been credited with the touchdown. He wasn't, but he'll find his way in this week as the Raiders give up the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end.

Dare we try going to Uzomah again? Well, we'll take a look and see. Joe Burrow is obviously comfortable with his receiving corps, but if the Chargers, who allow the fourth-most points to the tight end are going to give this one to the Bengals, Uzomah could find his way into the end zone. He doesn't see a whole lot of targets, but if you wan to throw a decent dart for the cost, this might be worth it.

I had Griffin in here last week and he came within centimeters of a touchdown with the pass just out of reach for him in the end zone. This week, we're back on him as the Eagles are the absolute worst team in tight end coverage. They're allowing the most fantasy points per game to them this season and rank 31st in DVOA against them, giving up just over 73 receiving yards to them. It's a cheap dart, so why not for a GPP tournament? 

Jordan got into the end zone for the second time this season last week and could start seeing even more work as the Texans look to see exactly what they have in the rookie. The Colts rank 27th in DVOA against the position, allow just over 72 receiving yards per game to them and give up the third-most fantasy points per game to them. Could lightning strike twice in a row here? The minimal cost allows you to check it out.