Welcome to the DFS Watch List for NFL Week 14!

What a week we just had, right? While the Playbook was absolute fire, the pay-lines were higher this week than most as the chalk hit everywhere. We had an overabundance of running back options who all hit, from Jonathan Taylor all the way down to Sony Michel and that, coupled with an array of wide receivers, from Justin Jefferson down to Van Jefferson, crushing it as well. there were a lot of competitive obstacles to overcome. 

For GPP contests, you really needed to hit the nuts to win the big money and that can extremely difficult when all the chalk hits, but you can still make great money with the cash games if you're being smart about building low-risk, zero-fat lineups with high-floor players. Most of the lineup trains we see are built out of expected ownership, in an effort to keep pace with the rest of the field. The optimizers spit out the same plays to everyone and they bank on some chalk missing as opposed to using players the rest of the field isn't on. For example, I didn't see a whole lot of Justin Herbert or Keenan Allen out there in the trains. My analysis had them popping this week and while I wasn't alone, my lineups cruised with their production. 

I did see plenty of trains squeezing in Jonathan Taylor and that was another reason we did so well. Yes, I built example lineups to show how you can fit Taylor and strong plays in as well, but I also showed you how to fade Taylor and still put out a fantastic, winning cash lineup. Guys like Elijah Mitchell, James Conner and Antonio Gibson all produced and still allowed you to go after some high-end wideouts.

The trains are going to try and give us trouble each week, but strong analysis will win out more often than not as they're banking on computerized projections rather than a true understanding of the game and match-ups. And as a result, we're able to continue winning in cash games. Playing and winning in cash games is how you save and build your bankroll. I always enter enough cash games so that my winnings there cover any potential GPP losses. So even if you lose your GPP tournaments, your cash winnings maintain your bankroll. Then once you bink a GPP, it's all gravy. 

So what exactly did last week's Playbook deliver? As always, we like to check in to ensure we remain on the right path.

Scoring The Playbook Week 13

Excellence across the board is the theme of the Playbook & Dart Board for Week 13.  The Dart Board dominated too.  Each position had many in the top 10.  The highest scoring lineup would have won the Millionaire Maker on Draft Kings by more than 16 points with a whopping 258.7 points.

Here are some more highlights:

  • Quarterbacks in the Playbook averaged 24.2 points or 3.6X Value including having 5 of the top 6.  All 6 quarterbacks in the Playbook had over 2X Value
  • Tight ends in the Playbook averaged 20.5 points or 4.2X Value including having 4 of the top 5 scorers at the position. This is the largest numbers at tight end in Playbook history.
  • Wide receivers in the Playbook averaged 21 points or 3.1X Value including having the top three at the position.
  • 29 of the 38 players in the Playbook returned 2X+ Value with 22 returning 3X Value, that is 58%
  • The highest total DraftKings lineup created from the players in the Playbook was 258.7 points.

For any newcomers this week:

“If you give a man a fish, he’ll eat for a day. If you teach a man to fish, he’ll eat for a lifetime.”

We take this adage to heart when it comes to playing NFL DFS. The Fantasy Alarm Playbook isn’t just about handing you a list of players and a lineup to use each week. It is designed to help you learn to be a better DFS player. It’s about teaching you the process used in selecting which players to scout and, eventually, which ones to use.

Therefore, we will begin each week with the Weekly NFL DFS Watch List which is designed to keep tabs on marquee names, chalk plays and, of course, the weekly bargains who may not see the same coverage and exposure. This piece will be continuously updated throughout the week, based on the most recent news and injuries which means you may see a name or two removed as we get closer to kick-off. You may also see a few late-week additions who pique our interest for some reason too, and by the end of the week, this Watch List will eventually become your Playbook. Again, it’s about teaching you the process.

Also remember, the DFS Watch List focuses on the Sunday Main Slate. We cover Thursday, Monday and Sunday Night Football via Showdown slate coverage.

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QBPatrick MahomesLV @ KC Sun 1:0080008500

While we've been targeting the Raiders defense as a run-funnel, the Chiefs don't have or utilize a traditional ground attack, so we can stay focused on the struggling passing game and hope this can turn into a get-right game for Mahomes. The Raiders rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass, they've allowed the third-most passing touchdowns (22) this season and opposing QBs are posting a 97.6 passer rating against them which is the sixth-highest in the league. This is going to be a tough, divisional match-up, but I think Mahomes comes away from this one strong.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly sunny
QBDak PrescottDAL @ WAS Sun 1:0067008100

The Washington secondary has been a disaster all season, rankings 30th in DVOA against the pass and allowing the most passing touchdowns (26), the third-most passing yards per game (263.9) and the second-highest passer rating against (105.0). As important as this game might be for Washington, it's actually a bigger one for Dallas who needs to prove they are not just a paper lion and can actually win the big games they need to win. Just be wary of the fact that Prescott is not a running quarterback anymore, so don't expect rushing yards or any real poaching near the goal-line.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
QBTaysom HillNO @ NYJ Sun 1:0056007700

Hill deserves a long look here against the Jets, even with the mallet finger issue he is dealing with right now. As Dan Malin mentions in this week's Waiver article, you're not using Hill for his throwing prowess anyway. You'll take him poaching touchdowns all over the place and given the Jets D, which ranks 30th and 32nd in DVOA against the run and pass, respectively, it seems like everyone on the Saints should be able to eat at the big kid's table and get themselves ready for a strong finish down the stretch. We may even have a GPP stack ready and waiting, depending on who leads their backfield this week.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
QBCam NewtonATL @ CAR Sun 1:0054007400

While yes, I'm a little nervous about investing in Newton, there are two things we know to be true – 1. He's an incredibly selfish player who will poach as much goal-line work as he can, and 2. The Falcons defense sucks against both the run and the pass. They're actually worse against the pass, so while I am sure he's going to be limited to short-passes only, he should be able to give us some respectable passing totals to go along with the rushing touchdowns he poaches. Now we just have to make sure, he's actually going to start this week.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
QBRyan TannehillJAC @ TEN Sun 1:0064007300

It's been a very long time since we've looked at Tannehill this year, but a match-up against the Jaguars is always a nice cure for what ails you. They're giving up nearly 250 passing yards per game each week, they've allowed 17 touchdowns through the air and opposing QBs have posted an impressive 103.2 passer rating against them. If Derrick Henry were still active, I'd lay off on Tannehill because the Titans would just run all day, but this hodge-podge they have in their backfield doesn't instill much confidence in me or anyone else probably, so look for Tannehill to do a little throwing in this one, especially if he gets Julio Jones back.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
RBAustin EkelerDAL @ WAS Sun 1:0083009200

We're going to see a lot of three-and-outs for the Giants this week, so look for the Chargers to attack on the ground and keep the clock moving in this one. New York has allowed 122.8 rushing yards per game this season and while they've only allowed nine rushing touchdowns on the year, that just seems like a stat waiting to correct itself as they've allowed two rushing touchdowns over their last three games and neither came from a team that runs the ball very well. I'm hoping people are down on him for his fumbles last week and the ownership stays down.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
RBAlvin KamaraNO @ NYJ Sun 1:0079009000

We'll check his health, obviously, as we aren't even sure if it will be him or Mark Ingram leading this backfield, but it's hard to ignore anyone from a backfield that is facing the Jets, even if your QB is a notorious poacher. The Jets have allowed the most rushing touchdowns this season (21) and give up the third-most rushing yards per game (133.4). His price on FanDuel is a bit high, but to get him for under $8K on Draft Kings is nice.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
RBCordarrelle PattersonPIT @ MIN Thu 8:2069007800

The season Patterson is having is absolutely spectacular and the fact that he's doing it on a below-average offense and after being left for dead on the fantasy (and reality) scrap-heap is making it all the more impressive. Whether he's rushing or receiving, he's been incredibly productive overall, though more touchdowns would be nice, for sure. Perhaps this match-up against the Panthers who have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and 17 through the air can give him a boost, but it's still good to know that he can be productive for DFS lineups even if he doesn't get into the end zone.   

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Heavy snow
RBJosh JacobsCHI @ GB Sun 8:2062007100

JUST ADDED (12/10) – This could prove to be a very interesting play this week as most will likely look to the 41-14 drubbing the Raiders took at the hands of the Chiefs in Week 10 where Jacobs wasn't a factor and ignore him. That would be fantastic. Of course, there is always that possibility of it happening again, but even so, this would be different. With Kenyan Drake out and no other backs available, Jacobs caught nine passes and produced a 24-point day in full-point PPR formats. With Drake still out and Jalen Richard landing on the reserve/COVID list, Jacobs could be in-line for full-time duties out of the backfield again. We know the Chiefs can struggle to stop the run, but now, even if they jump out to a lead, Jacobs will still be on the field. If the Raiders secondary can hold this time, Jacobs becomes a spectacular play.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly cloudy
RBJavonte WilliamsDAL @ WAS Sun 1:0059006700

JAVONTE UNLEASHED!!!! That's what everyone in the seasonal fantasy world was screaming this past week and now he returns to the main slate for our lineups. The only question is, will Melvin Gordon (shoulder/hip) return this week or will the Broncos hold him out again? If Gordon is out, I'm pushing the chips all-in on Williams against a Lions defense that gives up the fifth-most rushing yards per game (131.1), has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns and ranks 31st in DVOA against running back pass-plays. If Gordon plays, I'm much less bullish, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
RBJaMycal Hasty40004700

JUST ADDED (12/10) – While most will pivot to Jeffery Wilson in light of Elijah Mitchell being out for this week, I'm still looking at Hasty, especially in a PPR format. I just recorded the NFL DFS Podcast with Jon Impemba and he's on Wilson, citing Hasty as just the pass-catcher, but I don't believe there's anything significant in his game log that speaks to that. Both he and Wilson are very cheaply-priced this week so we'll see what the Saturday practice reports look like, but getting the starting RB from San Francisco at this price is a steal.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
WRStefon Diggs81008200

It's no secret that Tampa's secondary, especially with Jamel Dean now joining the wounded list, is their Achilles heel and after this past Monday night, you know Josh Allen is going to want to sling the rock. The Bucs simply don't have anyone who can hang with Diggs in coverage and Allen is going to try and hit him all day long as the Bills try to out-produce Tom Brady and the Bucs offense. I fell pretty good about locking in Diggs in both cash games and GPP tournaments.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
WRCeeDee LambDAL @ WAS Sun 1:0072007800

Washington's secondary has them ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass and the 26 passing touchdowns they've allowed is the most in the league. Their coverage numbers are incredibly weak, no matter if you're looking at the outside or the slot and with Lamb lining up everywhere, this could be an explosive play. Big fan of Michael Gallup here as well, so be on the lookout for some potential Dallas stacks.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
WRTyler LockettJAC @ TEN Sun 1:0067007300

Everyone loves to run on the Texans, but don't be surprised if Russell Wilson uses this match-up as a way to carry last week's momentum in to the passing attack moving forward. The Texans have allowed 18 touchdowns through the air and rank 27th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 2 receiver. They're also giving up almost 60 receiving yards per game to slot receivers which is where we keep seeing Lockett during three-receiver sets.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
WRDJ MooreCHI @ GB Sun 8:2062006800

We aren't going to expect some ginormous number of receiving yards, given Cam Newton's limitations, but he's locked onto Moore as his No. 1 target, as evidenced by the team-leading 24 targets over the last three games. Moore actually cleared the 100-yard mark last week and has one touchdown in three games with Newton as his QB, so going up against the Falcons who rank 24th in DVOA against the opposition's top receiver gives some promise to another trip to the end zone.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly cloudy
WRRussell GageSF @ CIN Sun 4:2557006200

Believe it or not, Gage is actually the Falcons top receiver over the past few weeks and should continue as such moving forward. Sorry Calvin Ridley fans, but he's not coming back. The Panthers rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver, but also rank 30th against slot receivers which is where Gage does most of his lining up. He's often been boom or bust, but with a nine-target average, one 100-yard effort and one touchdown over the last three games, he should be on your radar for this week.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
WRJarvis Landry54006400

Without Marlon Humphrey in the secondary anymore, the Ravens are going to have some difficulty keeping top wideouts down again. Tavon Austin will be tasked with holding down the slot-coverage, but he just doesn't have the chops to shut down Landry and neither do either of the outside corners. The Browns have had two weeks to prepare for this match-up and while yes, we'll see that heavy dose of Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield is going to be throwing some as well. Landry should be plenty productive and a super-cool bargain at this price.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
WRTyler BoydJAC @ TEN Sun 1:0050005900

The natural inclination is to go with Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, but based on the DVOA coverage numbers we're seeing, slot-coverage seems to be a problem for the 49ers as they rank 26th in DVOA against the position and are allowing almost 60 yards per game to them. Given his spot in the targets pecking order, it might be tough to use him as a one-off in a cash game, but he could easily be the pay-down you need if going with a Bengals stack. UPDATE: Tee Higgins remains questionable with an ankle injury, so keep Boyd climbing up your rankings for DFS use this week.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
WRTre'Quan SmithDET @ DEN Sun 4:0548005600

Slightly bummed the Saints just waived Kenny Stills who was going to be a tasty dart-throw, but we can land on Smith here since his price tag is still pretty tasty. The Jets secondary is incredibly soft and they've allowed 21 touchdowns through the air. Given the fact that Smith has been the most-targeted receiver over the last four weeks and Deonte Harris is suspended, Smith falls in as the perfect bargain. Of course, we still need Taysom Hill and his mallet finger to get him the ball.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly sunny
WRJamison CrowderDAL @ WAS Sun 1:0047005500

Obviously there's not  a whole lot to like about the Jets, outside of Elijah Moore maybe, but Crowder is definitely in a good spot this week going up against P.J. Williams of the Saints, arguably the worst cover-corner in the game. While Crowder only saw one target two weeks ago against the Texans, he's usually been good for six or seven per game and found himself in the end zone against Miami in Week 11. Everyone knows you can't run on the Saints and this RB corps for the Jets is pretty pathetic so you can expect them to be in a more pass-heavy frame of mind. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
WRNick Westbrook-Ikhine45005700

We'll see what happens with Julio Jones this week, but if he's out, then I'll be all-in on NWI (an abbreviation I don't feel bad about given my terrible typing skills). He's been the No. 1 receiving option in this office over the past few weeks so if Julio isn't back, then NWI will be the lead against a secondary currently dealing with a number of issues. The Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA against the pass, so while the yardage or touchdown totals against aren't popping off the charts, they give up enough for us to be happy using NWI as a pay-down.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
WRJoshua PalmerBUF @ TB Sun 4:2530004700

JUST ADDED (12/10) – Let's keep a watchful eye on the Chargers wide receiver situation this week. Keen Allen is on the reserve/COVID and seems like a longshot to play this week. Mike Williams was deemed a close-contact and while he's tested negative, he is also unvaccinated and will need more negative tests leading up to the game. Most will pivot towards Jalen Guyton after last week's touchdown catch, but Palmer actually profiles closer to Allen than he does Williams. If Allen misses this game, it should be Palmer working out of the slot in three-receiver sets and that is a serious weakness for the Giants secondary.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy
TETravis KelceLV @ KC Sun 1:0074007500

People can crap on some of the down games Kelce has had this season, but for us, it's all about the match-ups right here and right now. The Raiders allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and rank 30th against them in DVOA. It's time to go back to Kelce, bottom line.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly sunny
TEGerald EverettCHI @ GB Sun 8:2035004800

Well, so long as he's not fumbling the ball near the goal-line, Everett is someone we can use in DFS and still feel good about it. He's averaging just under seven targets per game over the last four weeks and has four red-zone targets over his last three. The Seahawks may just push the ball in over the goal-line via the run, but Everett is cheap enough to take the shot on in a GPP tournament.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly cloudy
TEAustin Hooper34005000

Tuesday reports alerted us to David Njoku landing on the reserve/COVID list which now puts on heavily on Hooper against the Ravens this week. Baltimore has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and given the fact that the Browns don't exactly have a deep WR corps, you can expect a ton of work going to the Hooper this week. UPDATE: Harrison Bryant has already been ruled out so it looks like Hooper is the main guy in an offense desperate for pass-catchers.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
TENick VannettJAC @ TEN Sun 1:0031004700

Yep. We just keep on pounding against the Jets. Nothing wrong with it, as that's what makes us money. The Jets are dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and they're giving up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. If Vannett can rack up like 30 yards with a score, he becomes a very worthwhile pay-down at the position.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny
TEBrevin JordanSEA @ HOU Sun 1:0025004600

Looking for a dart-throw but didn't want to wait until Coop's TE Coach piece this week? Nothing wrong with trying to give Jordan a shot in a big GPP. The Seahawks are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and Davis Mills under center could spell out some extra targets Jordan's way. Again, a very deep dart-throw, but something to have on your radar. UPDATE: Jordan has popped up on the injury report with a hand issue. He's listed as questionable, but this certainly takes some of the shine off a potential dart-throw.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

While we've been targeting the Raiders defense as a run-funnel, the Chiefs don't have or utilize a traditional ground attack, so we can stay focused on the struggling passing game and hope this can turn into a get-right game for Mahomes. The Raiders rank 23rd in DVOA against the pass, they've allowed the third-most passing touchdowns (22) this season and opposing QBs are posting a 97.6 passer rating against them which is the sixth-highest in the league. This is going to be a tough, divisional match-up, but I think Mahomes comes away from this one strong.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly sunny

The Washington secondary has been a disaster all season, rankings 30th in DVOA against the pass and allowing the most passing touchdowns (26), the third-most passing yards per game (263.9) and the second-highest passer rating against (105.0). As important as this game might be for Washington, it's actually a bigger one for Dallas who needs to prove they are not just a paper lion and can actually win the big games they need to win. Just be wary of the fact that Prescott is not a running quarterback anymore, so don't expect rushing yards or any real poaching near the goal-line.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

Hill deserves a long look here against the Jets, even with the mallet finger issue he is dealing with right now. As Dan Malin mentions in this week's Waiver article, you're not using Hill for his throwing prowess anyway. You'll take him poaching touchdowns all over the place and given the Jets D, which ranks 30th and 32nd in DVOA against the run and pass, respectively, it seems like everyone on the Saints should be able to eat at the big kid's table and get themselves ready for a strong finish down the stretch. We may even have a GPP stack ready and waiting, depending on who leads their backfield this week.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

While yes, I'm a little nervous about investing in Newton, there are two things we know to be true – 1. He's an incredibly selfish player who will poach as much goal-line work as he can, and 2. The Falcons defense sucks against both the run and the pass. They're actually worse against the pass, so while I am sure he's going to be limited to short-passes only, he should be able to give us some respectable passing totals to go along with the rushing touchdowns he poaches. Now we just have to make sure, he's actually going to start this week.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

It's been a very long time since we've looked at Tannehill this year, but a match-up against the Jaguars is always a nice cure for what ails you. They're giving up nearly 250 passing yards per game each week, they've allowed 17 touchdowns through the air and opposing QBs have posted an impressive 103.2 passer rating against them. If Derrick Henry were still active, I'd lay off on Tannehill because the Titans would just run all day, but this hodge-podge they have in their backfield doesn't instill much confidence in me or anyone else probably, so look for Tannehill to do a little throwing in this one, especially if he gets Julio Jones back.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

We're going to see a lot of three-and-outs for the Giants this week, so look for the Chargers to attack on the ground and keep the clock moving in this one. New York has allowed 122.8 rushing yards per game this season and while they've only allowed nine rushing touchdowns on the year, that just seems like a stat waiting to correct itself as they've allowed two rushing touchdowns over their last three games and neither came from a team that runs the ball very well. I'm hoping people are down on him for his fumbles last week and the ownership stays down.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

We'll check his health, obviously, as we aren't even sure if it will be him or Mark Ingram leading this backfield, but it's hard to ignore anyone from a backfield that is facing the Jets, even if your QB is a notorious poacher. The Jets have allowed the most rushing touchdowns this season (21) and give up the third-most rushing yards per game (133.4). His price on FanDuel is a bit high, but to get him for under $8K on Draft Kings is nice.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

The season Patterson is having is absolutely spectacular and the fact that he's doing it on a below-average offense and after being left for dead on the fantasy (and reality) scrap-heap is making it all the more impressive. Whether he's rushing or receiving, he's been incredibly productive overall, though more touchdowns would be nice, for sure. Perhaps this match-up against the Panthers who have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and 17 through the air can give him a boost, but it's still good to know that he can be productive for DFS lineups even if he doesn't get into the end zone.   

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Heavy snow

JUST ADDED (12/10) – This could prove to be a very interesting play this week as most will likely look to the 41-14 drubbing the Raiders took at the hands of the Chiefs in Week 10 where Jacobs wasn't a factor and ignore him. That would be fantastic. Of course, there is always that possibility of it happening again, but even so, this would be different. With Kenyan Drake out and no other backs available, Jacobs caught nine passes and produced a 24-point day in full-point PPR formats. With Drake still out and Jalen Richard landing on the reserve/COVID list, Jacobs could be in-line for full-time duties out of the backfield again. We know the Chiefs can struggle to stop the run, but now, even if they jump out to a lead, Jacobs will still be on the field. If the Raiders secondary can hold this time, Jacobs becomes a spectacular play.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly cloudy

JAVONTE UNLEASHED!!!! That's what everyone in the seasonal fantasy world was screaming this past week and now he returns to the main slate for our lineups. The only question is, will Melvin Gordon (shoulder/hip) return this week or will the Broncos hold him out again? If Gordon is out, I'm pushing the chips all-in on Williams against a Lions defense that gives up the fifth-most rushing yards per game (131.1), has allowed 12 rushing touchdowns and ranks 31st in DVOA against running back pass-plays. If Gordon plays, I'm much less bullish, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

JUST ADDED (12/10) – While most will pivot to Jeffery Wilson in light of Elijah Mitchell being out for this week, I'm still looking at Hasty, especially in a PPR format. I just recorded the NFL DFS Podcast with Jon Impemba and he's on Wilson, citing Hasty as just the pass-catcher, but I don't believe there's anything significant in his game log that speaks to that. Both he and Wilson are very cheaply-priced this week so we'll see what the Saturday practice reports look like, but getting the starting RB from San Francisco at this price is a steal.

Game Type: CASH & GPP

It's no secret that Tampa's secondary, especially with Jamel Dean now joining the wounded list, is their Achilles heel and after this past Monday night, you know Josh Allen is going to want to sling the rock. The Bucs simply don't have anyone who can hang with Diggs in coverage and Allen is going to try and hit him all day long as the Bills try to out-produce Tom Brady and the Bucs offense. I fell pretty good about locking in Diggs in both cash games and GPP tournaments.

Game Type: CASH & GPP

Washington's secondary has them ranked 30th in DVOA against the pass and the 26 passing touchdowns they've allowed is the most in the league. Their coverage numbers are incredibly weak, no matter if you're looking at the outside or the slot and with Lamb lining up everywhere, this could be an explosive play. Big fan of Michael Gallup here as well, so be on the lookout for some potential Dallas stacks.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

Everyone loves to run on the Texans, but don't be surprised if Russell Wilson uses this match-up as a way to carry last week's momentum in to the passing attack moving forward. The Texans have allowed 18 touchdowns through the air and rank 27th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 2 receiver. They're also giving up almost 60 receiving yards per game to slot receivers which is where we keep seeing Lockett during three-receiver sets.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

We aren't going to expect some ginormous number of receiving yards, given Cam Newton's limitations, but he's locked onto Moore as his No. 1 target, as evidenced by the team-leading 24 targets over the last three games. Moore actually cleared the 100-yard mark last week and has one touchdown in three games with Newton as his QB, so going up against the Falcons who rank 24th in DVOA against the opposition's top receiver gives some promise to another trip to the end zone.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly cloudy

Believe it or not, Gage is actually the Falcons top receiver over the past few weeks and should continue as such moving forward. Sorry Calvin Ridley fans, but he's not coming back. The Panthers rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver, but also rank 30th against slot receivers which is where Gage does most of his lining up. He's often been boom or bust, but with a nine-target average, one 100-yard effort and one touchdown over the last three games, he should be on your radar for this week.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

Without Marlon Humphrey in the secondary anymore, the Ravens are going to have some difficulty keeping top wideouts down again. Tavon Austin will be tasked with holding down the slot-coverage, but he just doesn't have the chops to shut down Landry and neither do either of the outside corners. The Browns have had two weeks to prepare for this match-up and while yes, we'll see that heavy dose of Nick Chubb, Baker Mayfield is going to be throwing some as well. Landry should be plenty productive and a super-cool bargain at this price.

Game Type: CASH & GPP

The natural inclination is to go with Ja'Marr Chase or Tee Higgins, but based on the DVOA coverage numbers we're seeing, slot-coverage seems to be a problem for the 49ers as they rank 26th in DVOA against the position and are allowing almost 60 yards per game to them. Given his spot in the targets pecking order, it might be tough to use him as a one-off in a cash game, but he could easily be the pay-down you need if going with a Bengals stack. UPDATE: Tee Higgins remains questionable with an ankle injury, so keep Boyd climbing up your rankings for DFS use this week.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

Slightly bummed the Saints just waived Kenny Stills who was going to be a tasty dart-throw, but we can land on Smith here since his price tag is still pretty tasty. The Jets secondary is incredibly soft and they've allowed 21 touchdowns through the air. Given the fact that Smith has been the most-targeted receiver over the last four weeks and Deonte Harris is suspended, Smith falls in as the perfect bargain. Of course, we still need Taysom Hill and his mallet finger to get him the ball.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly sunny

Obviously there's not  a whole lot to like about the Jets, outside of Elijah Moore maybe, but Crowder is definitely in a good spot this week going up against P.J. Williams of the Saints, arguably the worst cover-corner in the game. While Crowder only saw one target two weeks ago against the Texans, he's usually been good for six or seven per game and found himself in the end zone against Miami in Week 11. Everyone knows you can't run on the Saints and this RB corps for the Jets is pretty pathetic so you can expect them to be in a more pass-heavy frame of mind. 

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

We'll see what happens with Julio Jones this week, but if he's out, then I'll be all-in on NWI (an abbreviation I don't feel bad about given my terrible typing skills). He's been the No. 1 receiving option in this office over the past few weeks so if Julio isn't back, then NWI will be the lead against a secondary currently dealing with a number of issues. The Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA against the pass, so while the yardage or touchdown totals against aren't popping off the charts, they give up enough for us to be happy using NWI as a pay-down.

Game Type: CASH & GPP

JUST ADDED (12/10) – Let's keep a watchful eye on the Chargers wide receiver situation this week. Keen Allen is on the reserve/COVID and seems like a longshot to play this week. Mike Williams was deemed a close-contact and while he's tested negative, he is also unvaccinated and will need more negative tests leading up to the game. Most will pivot towards Jalen Guyton after last week's touchdown catch, but Palmer actually profiles closer to Allen than he does Williams. If Allen misses this game, it should be Palmer working out of the slot in three-receiver sets and that is a serious weakness for the Giants secondary.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy

People can crap on some of the down games Kelce has had this season, but for us, it's all about the match-ups right here and right now. The Raiders allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and rank 30th against them in DVOA. It's time to go back to Kelce, bottom line.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Mostly sunny

Well, so long as he's not fumbling the ball near the goal-line, Everett is someone we can use in DFS and still feel good about it. He's averaging just under seven targets per game over the last four weeks and has four red-zone targets over his last three. The Seahawks may just push the ball in over the goal-line via the run, but Everett is cheap enough to take the shot on in a GPP tournament.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Partly cloudy

Tuesday reports alerted us to David Njoku landing on the reserve/COVID list which now puts on heavily on Hooper against the Ravens this week. Baltimore has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and given the fact that the Browns don't exactly have a deep WR corps, you can expect a ton of work going to the Hooper this week. UPDATE: Harrison Bryant has already been ruled out so it looks like Hooper is the main guy in an offense desperate for pass-catchers.

Game Type: CASH & GPP

Yep. We just keep on pounding against the Jets. Nothing wrong with it, as that's what makes us money. The Jets are dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and they're giving up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. If Vannett can rack up like 30 yards with a score, he becomes a very worthwhile pay-down at the position.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Sunny

Looking for a dart-throw but didn't want to wait until Coop's TE Coach piece this week? Nothing wrong with trying to give Jordan a shot in a big GPP. The Seahawks are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and Davis Mills under center could spell out some extra targets Jordan's way. Again, a very deep dart-throw, but something to have on your radar. UPDATE: Jordan has popped up on the injury report with a hand issue. He's listed as questionable, but this certainly takes some of the shine off a potential dart-throw.

Game Type: CASH & GPP
Weather: Cloudy