NFL DFS Playbook: Week 15 Monday Night Football

The Bears secondary has been ravaged by COVID which means coverage on high-end receivers should be pretty soft. The Vikings will open up run-first, as always, and allow the play-action to develop and open up the passing game. Chicago has only allowed an average of 216.5 passing yards per game but the 24 touchdowns through the air and the 106.6 passer rating opposing quarterbacks have posted should tell you all you need to know about getting Cousins into your lineups.

While the Browns weren't giving up a ton of yards through the air this season (just 215 per game), they did allow 23 passing touchdowns and opposing quarterbacks posted a 92.7 passer rating against them. Now, their entire secondary has been decimated by positive COVID tests. Carr should have little to no trouble throwing the football today and is likely to be very highly-owned despite some recent subpar performances. 

As improved as the Vikings secondary has gotten over the second half of the season, they're still allowing roughly 252 passing yards per game and they've coughed up 24 touchdowns. They also happen to be allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game, so if Fields is starting today and he doesn't get a late close-contact tag with Andy Dalton testing positive, he could be in for a strong effort and may be worth the contrarian play.

Cook retuned early from his shoulder injury, strapped on a harness and rumbled towards 205 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week against the Steelers. With Akiem Hicks banged up and the Bears defense struggling with injuries and positive tests, Cook should prove to be a dominant force once again. Chicago is allowing 120 rushing yards per game with 13 rushing touchdowns allowed so expect those numbers to rise after this game. 

This should be an interesting match-up for Chubb as the Raiders have been incredibly soft against the run, allowing 125.3 yards per game with 14 rushing touchdowns on the year, but he is likely to be without both starting tackles this week. Jedrick Wills has been a force with his run-blocking all year, so he will be missed, but with so many other COVID cases affecting the passing game (we still don't have confirmation on who the Browns QB will be), you should expect a high-volume game here. Thirty carries will not be out of the question.

While the Browns are allowing just 106.2 rushing yards per game, they've actually allowed 144.7 per game over their last three. Now with the defensive line weakened, you can expect high-volume for Jacobs. The one thing holding me back from pushing all-in is that both Jalen Richard and Peyton Barber will be active. Jacobs had been seeing an average of six targets per game over the last four weeks which has boosted his value tremendously. If Richard comes into play, we may not see the receptions which, obviously hurts his value, especially on Draft Kings.

The Vikings run defense has really diminished over the last few weeks as they've allowed 138 yards per game over their last three which has raised their season average to 129.5 rushing yards per game. They have also allowed 14 rushing touchdowns this season. Montgomery has averaged just over 15 carries per game over the last four weeks since the bye, but he's also seen a nice boost in targets with 16 over his last two. Expect the Bears to do some early leaning on him as they wait to see if their defense holds up. 

While the Browns will likely give Nick Chubb the bulk of the carries, if they jump out to a substantial lead, Johnson could be the guy they turn to in the second half to chew up the clock. You won't see the volume until the second half, but given how soft the Raiders run defense is, he could end up with a big night on minimal carries, especially with the lack of pass-catchers on the roster for tonight.

Not much analysis needed here as Jefferson is one of the best receivers in the game and is facing a secondary decimated by COVID. Jefferson has three 100-yard efforts in his last five game and has five touchdowns in his last six. Easily worth the cost tonight.

He'll be highly-owned in this one as the Browns secondary is in shambles and he's been an absolute target-monster lately with 24 in his last two games and an average of just under 10 per game over his last six. He's coming off three-straight 100-yard efforts and while he's only got one touchdown in his last four games, he's got three in his last six. The Raiders may not have to throw as often tonight, but he'll still get the heavier load than the other wideouts.

He's the top receiving option for the Bears, Allen Robinson and Marquise Goodwin aren't expected to play, he lines up both inside and outside and the Vikings aren't going to be able to double-cover him because of the other mice (Byrd and Grant) running around out there. He should be heavily-targeted throughout the game. 

He's got 16 targets over his last two games with Adam Thielen (ankle) being out and has a touchdown in each one as well. There are reports that Thielen will be a game-time decision, so if you're looking to add Osborn to your lineups, check the inactives. His value takes a big hit should Thielen play, even in a limited fashion.

Last man standing, right? Jarvis Landry has COVID and Anthony Schwartz is banged-up. The Browns have some random guys who will likely see some snaps, but whomever is quarterbacking this team, the focus will be on the running backs, the tight ends and Peoples-Jones. We don't expect the Browns to throw much and he'll see Casey Hayward in coverage a lot, so things could be lean on the targets. Still, once they get into the red zone, if the Raiders start stacking the box, Peoples-Jones should see a few jump balls thrown his way.

One of the aforementioned mice the Bears will have running around the Vikings secondary. Grant is a little guy with great speed, so he could give Minnesota some fits early on while they try to game plan against him. If he's coming out of the slot, the linebackers are going to have some trouble keeping up, so if he sees a handful of targets, he could be a sneaky play. 

The other mouse in the house for the Bears is Byrd who has also seen a slight bump in targets over the past few weeks. He's much more of a deep threat but can still go across the middle as well. He got into the end zone last week and with Robinson and Goodwin out, he could be pretty active again today.

He's really much more of a dart-throw and I'm not even sure the Raiders are going to need to use him often. I could see them taking a few early deep shots just to let the Browns know they are aware of their weaknesses tonight, so if you're building multiple lineups tonight, having a share of him might allow you to get some bigger names into the rest of the lineup. 

With the loss of Darren Waller, Jones has gone from random dart-throw to the second-most targets on the Raiders. He's got 19 over his last three games and while he has yet to turn any of them into a touchdown, he's had five catches in two of his last three which helps boost his value in full-point PPR formats. He could see a lot of Denzel Ward, so keep your expectations in check..

Another dart-throw really as Edwards doesn't really see a whole lot of targets, even with Waller out. He's averaged three per game over the last three weeks, so consider him a low-end option here even against a weakened secondary.

The Browns simply don't have any other wide receivers, especially if Anthony Schwartz misses the game with his concussion. This is about as big a dart-throw as you can get tonight, so use him only if you're doing some max-entering of some large-field GPP tournaments.

The Bears rank 13th in DVOA against the tight end position and they're allowing fewer than 40 yards per game to them, but with Adam Thielen potentially on the shelf for another game, he should continue to see a few extra targets. With the Bears safeties dealing with COVID and the linebackers a bit banged-up, he could be worth a look this week. 

While the Browns rank 11th in DVOA against the tight end, they're still allowing over 50 receiving yards per game to them and are giving up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the position. Moreau is not Darren Waller, and the Raiders still have an array of pass-catchers, so while Moreau will still see targets, he's not going to be the beast you really want to have.

Not only are the Browns light on receivers, but Austin Hooper has COVID and Harrison Bryant is still questionable with an ankle issue. That should put Njoku into quite the spotlight tonight as the Raiders rank 30th in DVOA against the tight end and are allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to them. Njoku's price should allow you to lock him in with some other strong plays, and he is definitely going to be my favorite to use.

The Vikings are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points to the tight end position, but Justin Fields has been leaning heavily on him with 23 targets over the last three games. Rookie quarterbacks tend to lean on the pass-catchers across the middle and Kmet is a big-bodied target for him to help move the chains. We've also been fortunate to see three red-zone targets over the last two games, so hopefully tonight, he hits the end zone for the first time this season.

He is the most aggravating dart-throw because he doesn't see a lot of targets, he doesn't make a lot of catches and he doesn't rack up much in the way of yards. But he does score touchdowns and that's the big bummer if you're looking for more than just the one random score. Still, as a salary-saver, he does have two touchdowns over his last three games.

While the Vikings only have 16 takeaways on the season, they do lead the league with 41 sacks this season. Fields still has more interceptions than he does touchdown passes and he's been sacked 33 times through just 11 games. The Vikings should grab an early lead and try to run the clock out which means fewer offensive opportunities for Chicago and a potentially low score.  

As of right now, the Browns are looking at Nick Mullens as their starting quarterback and that's not going to be good for them. There was hope that Mayfield would play but it doesn't sound promising. The Raiders are not normally a defense you want to invest in, but there are worse things out there tonight.