NFL DFS Playbook: Week 16 Christmas Day

The most eye-popping number that stand out against the Colts pass defense is that they've allowed a league-high 28 passing touchdowns this season. They aren't giving up a ton of yards through the air but they are allowing opposing quarterback to be very efficient once they get inside the red zone. Murray is always a threat to run the ball in on his own and we're expecting a bounce-back game for him. It doesn't hurt that the Colts are dealing with injuries and COVID in an already weak secondary.

There is little to no public faith in the Browns defense right now as they're dealing with an array of injuries and COVID issues as well. But they've also given up a substantial number of passing touchdowns (24) and opposing QBs have a 91.8 passer rating against them. Rodgers is going to be the gift that keeps on giving, especially to Davante Adams, and he should run up the score early and often in this one.

I've actually got the Cardinals winning this game, so while they'll try to lead with a heavy ground game, the second half is going to see Wentz throwing a lot more. Arizona ‘s defense is good for turnovers, but they still make a number of defensive mistakes which has allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for 22 passing touchdowns and post a strong 90.2 passer rating against them. If you’re on the side of Arizona winning then you understand and accept the fact that Wentz could post some strong totals even in a losing effort.  

The super-contrarian play of the slate as Mayfield has not been a good quarterback at all this season and he doesn't really have a decent array of weapons. But if Rodgers takes it to the Browns like we are expecting, then Mayfield is going to spend the second half slinging the rock against a Packers pass defense that ranks 19th in DVOA and is allowing almost 220 passing yards per game with 24 touchdowns through the air.

This is going to be a tough match-up for Taylor as the Cardinals run defense is only allowing 112 rushing yards per game with just eight rushing touchdowns allowed. But he gets significant volume and works in the passing game enough to stay a factor throughout. He's super pricey, but could still be worth it as this one seems like it will be too close for him to be game-flowed out.

There is concern that this game gets out of hand early and the Browns abandon the run, but this match-up for Chubb is actually pretty good. The Packers are only allowing 108 rushing yards per game but with 11 rushing touchdowns allowed, you know they're vulnerable. The hope is that Chubb gets a heavy workload early and racks up some yardage and a touchdowns before the Packers pull away. If the Browns go down really early though, we could be sunk.

So few people like using Jones these days, that it makes me love him even more as a contrarian move. Jones is still the lead back in this offense and he gets the passing work, no matter how much you want to love on AJ Dillon. The yards from scrimmage haven't been great as he's played through a knee issue, but he does have three touchdowns over his last two games. Now that there's no injury designation heading into this game, perhaps his workload increases earlier on which would be great considering the injuries to the Browns defensive line.

The assumption is that the Packers jump out to a substantial lead and just lean on Dillon to chew up yards and the clock in the second half. We've seen it before and given this match-up, there's definite plausibility. Just keep in mind that if Cleveland does find a way to keep this game close, Dillon is going to be very touchdown dependent and he's only got two in his last four games. If you think the Packers blow out the Browns, then yes, this should be a no-brainer.

At worst, he shares the workload with Conner. At best, he has the job to himself in a tough match-up as the Colts front-seven is one of the best in the game, allowing just 109.6 rushing yards per game with just eight rushing touchdowns allowed. However, where Edmonds earns his value is in the passing game. The Colts pass-rushers are strong, but when they commit, they become extremely vulnerable to the check-down and running backs have been very successful against them in the passing game. It's why the Colts rank 28th in DVOA against RB pass-plays. I wrote about exactly this when they played Tampa Bay and Leonard Fournette caught seven passes for 31 yards and a touchdown. Oh yeah, and he had three rushing touchdowns in that one too, but I'm not going to get greedy with Edmonds on that front.

Not only is he one of the best wide receivers in the game, but we're going to play the birthday/Christmas baby narrative here since Adams was born on the 24th. Right? Who wouldn't want to see Adams with armfuls of birthday and Christmas touchdowns? I just don't see anyone in the Browns secondary containing him this week. Spend up and enjoy.

There's a reason he's on the cover and that he's the second-most expensive wideout on this slate. Kirk slid right into DeAndre Hopkins' role last week and turned 12 targets into nine catches for 94 yards and a touchdown and this match-up is actually just as favorable. The Colts secondary is banged up and as we read above, they've allowed the most passing touchdowns with 28 this season. He's being locked into all of my lineups on Christmas.

He finally doesn't carry an injury designation and as the only legitimate threat to catch with consistency on the Browns, he gets the nod here in a game we expect the Browns to be throwing heavily in the second half. It doesn't seem likely that Jaire Alexander will shadow him, but the two will match-up at times. The target volume is where we catch our value here. 

Not an easy match-up for Pittman as the Cardinals rank third in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver. Still, the Colts are going to have to find a way to get the ball into his hands and keep this game competitive. While last week against the Patriots was a total bust, Pittman is usually good for five or six grabs and roughly 60 to 70 yards. He needs the end zone to pay off for bigger GPP contests, but we've seen him score in bunches before. He had five touchdowns over five games back between Week5 and 9 but hasn't caught one since. Maybe he's due.

With the struggles and injuries in the Colts secondary, Green should fare well on the outside against Isaiah Rodgers who will fill in for Rock Ya-Sin. He's seen 18 targets over his last two games and turned them into 11 catches for 166 yards. We haven't seen him do any end zone dancing since Week 6, but the possibility is definitely strong this week.

If he doesn't lube up his gloves with AstroGlide before the game starts again this week, then Peoples-Jones could be a solid option for Mayfield. The match-up is decent so long as he's away from Jaire Alexander and he's a great deep threat which means the only thing standing in his way is him. If he can escape the drops then he should see enough second-half volume to make him an interesting option.

He's a dart-throw at best these days because he just doesn't see enough of the targets to make him a legitimate option in DFS. Sure, he scored a touchdown against Tampa Bay three weeks ago, but we're really just chasing. It comes down to whether or not the Cardinals focus their attention more on Pittman and leave Hilton open, so maybe use in a Showdown lineup if you're trying to be different. 

With Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the reserve/COVID list, I really like Lazard as a low-cost option, especially in a Packers stack. He was quiet last week but had six catches for 75 yards and a touchdown the week before. If Aaron Rodgers is going to put on a show for everyone on Christmas, Lazard is going to get in one the action.

The Colts are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game and Ertz is ready to break out in this match-up. Frank Reich, obviously knows how dangerous Ertz can be, but there are just too many weapons on Arizona for him to pay special attention. Hunter Henry put up two touchdowns on the Colts last week, the combo of Pharaoh Brown and Brevin Jordan had six catches between them the week before that and Gronk put up 123 yards on them the week before that. Gimme all the Ertz you can on Christmas. 

I still think he should have been credited with a touchdown last week, but I'm not going to harp on that here. Njoku is a strong play as he is a favorite target, especially inside the red zone and the Packers are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position.

Rodgers is going to need more than just Adams and Lazard, right? Why not throw a little dart at Deguara? The Browns may rank 11th in DVOA against the position, but they also allow the ninth -most fantasy points per game to them this season. With no Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis about to celebrate his 108th birthday, Deguara looks like a solid pay-down.

There are some days where Baker Mayfield just looks horrible and the Packers will be trying to take advantage every step of the way. They rank fifth in the NFL with 22 takeaways on the season and they're right there in the middle of the pack with 31 sacks. We also know that if Green Bay can get the Browns to abandon the run, they're not going to allow much in the way of points either.

If they can stop Jonathan Taylor and force Wentz into some bad situations, the Cardinals can capitalize. They have the fourth-most takeaways on the season with 24 have they have the fifth-most sacks in the league as well. Definitely a solid option if you want to use a mid-priced option and you think they win the game.

They've been my favorite defense all season long, they lead the league with 31 takeaways and they have 30 sacks to their credit. We've also seen some defensive touchdowns as well. Kyler Murray has been prone to making some mistakes as well, so if the pass-rush can force a fumble or two, this defense pays off.