NFL Playoffs DFS Playbook: Divisional Round (Saturday Only)

You know the foot/toe is well-rested and the 49ers defensive strength lies heavily against the run which should allow Rodgers to work his magic against the 49ers zone defense which ranks 16th in DVOA against the pass. Rodgers was already playing with a chip on his shoulder walking into the season and after everything that's happened throughout the year, you know he's even more fired up about it. He'll be on the lookout for the 49ers pass-rush, but he should have no problem finding his receivers in favorable match-ups downfield.

The public is extremely heavy on the Bengals right now, so expect Burrow to be pretty chalky given the recent performances we've witnessed. The Titans may rank 11th in DVOA against the pass, but they're also allowing 259 passing yards per game over their last three. Personally, now that Derrick Henry is back, the Titans will push the Bengals defense around with the run which could put Burrow into a situation where he is passing a lot more and that is what will make him a strong option for DFS this weekend.

The Titans may be run-first and are getting Henry back this week, but that should only open up the passing attack more for the Tannehill and the Titans. We've seen extremely strong performances from him even when Henry is running amok and if the Bengals passing attack pushes back enough in the second half, this on could turn into a back-and-forth late. Either way, Tannehill is likely to do enough passing to make him a decent and highly-underrated value play this week.

Word is out that Henry will be back. We'll watch the practice reports and get a feel for his workload when head coach Mike Vrabel lays out all the official news after practice, but given the troubles the Bengals may have with their defensive line, he may not even need 20 carries to shred them. It's very difficult to tell just how heavy a workload the Titans will give him, but he's rested and ready and should find success no matter the number of carries.

While I don't expect a whole lot of volume, I do think Mixon can find his way into the end zone with the number of times we've seen the Bengals passing attack bring the offense within the five-yard line. The Titans run defense has been their strong-suit but they have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns on the year. I don't particularly like the pricing here for a guy who may not see the 15 touches in the game, but he'll likely be a decent contrarian play given the rest of the running back options on the slate.

Mitchell has seen no fewer than 21 carries over his last six games and the Packers defense ranks 28th in DVOA against the run. They've allowed an average of 115 rushing yards per game over the last three weeks and you can expect the 49ers to be in full attack mode on their defensive line. There is no way the 49ers want to turn this game into a track meet between Garoppolo and Rodgers, so expect similar volume for Mitchell with enough of a splash by Deebo Samuel out of the backfield to keep Mitchell fresh and ready for the whole game. 

If you're in on the narratives of Aaron Rodgers versus zone coverage and the cold weather wearing down players, then Dillon fits in perfectly. His increased usage over the course of the season is obvious and the Packers are more than happy to keep handing him the ball to either pound it in at the goal line or chew up the clock. Whether Green Bay has the lead or not, he's going to see a good amount of work. The only caveat is if the Packers find themselves down and in catch-up mode, they may abandon the run or utilize Aaron Jones more in the passing attack, but it's tough to believe Rodgers lets Green Bay fall out in this one. 

Anyone see the 49ers shutting down Adams? Me neither. There isn't much analysis needed here as the 49ers struggle more against the pass than they do the run and the Rodgers/Adams connection is one of the absolute best, not just this season, but all-time. If you can afford him, you use him.

He's been doing it all as a self-proclaimed “wide-back” and should be an extremely popular pick in DFS this week, especially with all of the rushing work he is still seeing even if Elijah Mitchell back. We already know the Packers struggle against the run so Deebo will get his opportunities on that front without issue. But he's also seeing strong targets as well, so here's a guy who sees the work regardless of game-flow.

His connection with Joe Burrow has been front-and-center all year, but even more so here in the waning weeks of the NFL season. His explosive 266-yard game is still fresh in everyone's minds and he is seeing the lion's share of the targets. The Titans pass rush may force Joe Burrow to get rid of the football a little quicker which could mean he spreads the ball around a little more than he has lately, but Chase is still his guy and will see strong opportunities against a pass defense that has had its throughout most of the season.

Whether the Titans run the ball heavy and control the clock or need to air it out and play catch-up, Brown is one of those guys who will continue to see targets regardless. Whether he's matching up against Eli Apple or Chidobe Awuzie is irrelevant as he can beat both of them in coverage. The key here is the return of Julio Jones. If Jones can stay healthy this week, he's going to draw coverage of his own and that will put Brown into more one-on-one match-ups. The Bengals will struggle to contain him throughout, so keep a watchful eye on a guy who could be underrated by many this week.

His ownership this week could be the best part as his bust of a game during Wild Card Weekend is standing out like a turd in a punchbowl. How many people got burned playing him in DFS last week? I'll raise my hand here. But if the Bengals are airing it out, Burrow is going to have to spread the ball around more and that should put Higgins in a good spot against either Kristian Fulton or Janoris Jenkins. If you're looking to grab a slice of this Bengals passing game but cannot afford Chase, Higgins should be a solid alternative at a much more reasonable cost.

Probably one of the more underrated receivers out there which is obviously a direct result of playing in the shadow of Davante Adams. Lazard has played both inside and outside throughout the season, but with the return of Randall Cobb and the emergence of Josiah Deguara, Lazard is expected to play the outside opposite Adams and help stretch the field. With no Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Lazard should see those deep shots Rodgers likes to take and if one hits…boooooo-yaaaaaah!!!!

In truth, I'm still flip-flopping between Aiyuk and Juaun Jennings, but Aiyuk gets the edge due to the volume of snaps he gets and his share of the targets. Aiyuk thrives in the shorter passing game which will be expected from the 49ers this week and his specialty is picking up yards after the catch. If the 49ers fall into a more pass-heavy scheme in the second half, Aiyuk should see ample work.

Whether it's Elijah Molden or Buster Skrine working slot-coverage for the Titans, Boyd could certainly have himself a big day, especially if the pass-rush forces Burrow into some quicker throws. Boyd does an outstanding job across the middle and with the Titans focusing more of their attention towards Chase and Higgins, Boys becomes a nice, sneaky play. And hey…if you look at the DVOA coverage numbers for Tennessee, you'll notice they rank 29th against the opposition's third wideout. The price also makes him an easy fit into lineups.

We've gotten to the point where even name recognition isn't enough to put Julio into the mainstream, so if you're thinking about investing into the Titans passing attack, then Jones could make it much easier for you to get Derrick Henry or any of the other really high-priced guys into your lineup. The Bengals rank 25th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 2 receiver and given his health being good right now, he could thrive while the Bengals secondary focuses more on A.J. Brown. He seems like he'll be a solid contrarian play this week.

Aaron Rodgers has his BFF back at full-health and he should see all of his action coming out of the slot against K'Waun Williams. He doesn't see a ton of targets, averaging maybe four per game when he was healthy, but he had two multi-touchdown games and five scores on the season. That's not bad when you're just looking for some short-term help. He'll provide you with solid salary-relief whether you're stacking Packers or looking for a low-cost one-off and if Rodgers is still looking his way inside the red zone, you could get some end zone dancing.

It's amazing how he's priced down, not just on this Saturday slate but on the full weekend slate if you're playing that as well. Kittle has been extremely quiet in recent games, but the Packers rank 28th in DVOA against the tight end and he could go off, especially with the short-passing game likely in effect for the 49ers. We expect them to run more so I wouldn't expect a dozen targets, but 6-to-8 wouldn't be too bad, especially when you see how well he does picking up yards after the catch. People are sleeping on Kittle still, so don't be afraid to invest.

If you do need to pay down at tight end, then Deguara becomes an interesting option, especially with MVS likely being sidelined for this game. Rodgers showed the ability to sek out the tight end when Robert Tonyan was on the field and maybe without one of his primary receivers on the field, he looks to Deguara a little more than usual. The 49ers have done well against the tight end, but on the short slate, you have to take some risks.

Now if you're really looking to pay down and possibly even punt the tight end position, Swaim could be the guys. Yes, Anthony Firkser sees the majority of the snaps, but if you're looking for who the better pass-catching tight end is on this team, the lean here is towards Swaim. I wouldn't expect much in the way of volume, but with one score and three red zone targets over his final five games, there is certainly some hope.  

The Packers have the most takeaways (26) of any team on this slate while the 49ers have 24 giveaways. Should the Packers jump out to an early lead and the 49ers have to turn to Garoppolo to pass more often, we could see a number of mistakes made. Overall, this slate isn't rich with defensive gems, so you have to look at who you think wins, not just the game, but the overall turnover battle. 

Tennessee had 22 takeaways this season and while the Bengals have been fun to watch all year, you cannot deny the fact that they are a very young team (from coaches to players) and could fall victim to some undisciplined mistakes. If the Titans run the ball down the throats of the Bengals, you will also see Cincinnati take more chances downfield and that can always create some chaos. You can also look to the fact that Burrow is going to take a few extra sacks this week, something he wasn't much worries about last week.

While they're not really an opportunistic defense regarding the turnover game, they did have 20 while also generating the fifth-most sacks this season. Nick Bosa is good to go and the Niners pass rush could frustrate Rodgers at times. If he holds the ball too long, he could take a few extra hits and that could help build up some points for the Niners defensive unit.