NFL Playoffs DFS Playbook: Divisional Round (Sunday Only)

It's going to be very difficult to differentiate between the quarterbacks on this slate, simply because all of them are absolute monsters. Allen has an array of weapons at his disposal and can raise his floor with the rushing yards. He's also got a nice supportive ground game, so the Chiefs are going to have their hands full. It's going to be all about your lineup build. Using Allen gives you a slice of everyone in the Bills passing attack and a piece of their rushing game as well, so unless you think the Bills are going to put up a 40-spot on Kansas City, you don't even need to stack him up with a bunch of guys.  

Mahomes is in a very similar spot to Allen. We are all expecting/hoping for a track meet between these two offenses and, to a certain extent, we should get one. We've had it in the past and neither team is so vastly different than in previous meetings. Mahomes gets a little longer of a look because Andy Reid doesn't lean as heavily on his running game. He might give the backs a little extra work given the match-up, but this offense is all about Mahomes and him hitting his targets. With no Tre-Davious White in the secondary, you could see a few more deep shots downfield than usual too.  

You never want to count Brady out. Yes, there are concerns about the offensive line and we're still waiting for updates on both Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs. It sounds like Jensen will play and Wirfs won't, but that just means Brady will have to get rid of the ball quicker. He's been in that spot before and he's built a career on elevating those around him. Quick dump-offs to the running backs and utilizing his tight ends across the middle should help neutralize the pass-rush and the fact that Jalen Ramsey will spend much of his time on Mike Evans, so don't be surprised to see Brady dinking and dunking his way downfield. All those short passes add up quickly so keep that in mind. 

I was more bullish on Stafford before finding out LT Andrew Whitworth would miss this game, but he's still going to need to be a successful passer if the Rams are going to want to win this game. Tampa does a great job against the run, so look for dump-offs to Cam Akers and quick strikes to Cooper Kupp to help move the ball downfield and watch how that opens up deeper shots downfield to Odell Beckham. Many are calling for an upset here, so the only way that happens is if Stafford has a strong game. And if he does, for this price, he could be a winning contrarian play.

With the way the Bills have utilized the ground game over the last five or six weeks, you have to pay attention to Singletary, especially facing a Chiefs defense that ranks 20th in DVOA against the run and has allowed an average of 102 rushing yards per game over their last three. The Bills have been jumping out to early leads and then leaning on Singletary to help chew up the clock and keep the opposing QB off the field. Expect them to utilize the same game plan. The potential for a track meet does linger which could keep the ball out of Singletary's hands a little more than usual, but he's still going to get his work in and should be able to find the end zone as well.

Though he hasn't officially been activated as of writing this, the expectation is that Fournette will play this weekend against the Rams and will likely be leaned on heavily by Brady. Not having Wirfs may cause a few issues on the right side, but quick dump-offs to Fournette will obviously be in play,. There's a chance Giovani Bernard steals a few catches in the flat, but the Bucs need a strong showing from Fournette if they are going to be successful. The Rams defense is tough, but there are holes to be found, as evidenced by the 120 rushing yards per game they've allowed over their last three games.

With the way the Rams have been working Akers in, it looks like he's likely to be a better play on Draft Kings than FanDuel simply because of the full-point PPR. Sony Michel isn't running routes, so with Akers taking on the role of the pass-catching back, he'll see the field more should the Rams fall behind at all and just watching the team get him the ball out in space more has been a great thing to watch. Tampa Bay actually ranks 21st in DVOA against running back pass-plays, so he could be in for a strong game, especially if the pass protection struggles without Whitworth. If you're looking for a good pay-down, he'll be a hot commodity, but understand that his ownership will be high this week.

While the rest of the herd goes after Jerick McKinnon, we'll stick with CEH in this match-up. The Bills vulnerability against the run has been well-documented and CEH is more the runner who can bounce off first-contact than McKinnon who is much more of an outside runner and pass-catcher. McKinnon will still get his work in, but I think CEH ends up more productive in the end as the lead back who gets more of the early-down work. He is going to be a contrarian play this week and the price is definitely right for that.  

He'll be a contrarian play for those using the Bucs this week as most will flock to Fournette. But Brady is goin to have to get creative with his passing targets and that means we should still see some designed screens for Bernard, just as we saw last week. Fournette will see some of his own, but he only saw an average of three targets per game when Bernard was active and that jumped to seven when Bernard was out. Expect the diminutive back to get some work and he could find his way into the end zone once again. He also makes for a nice contrarian pay-down to McKinnon who everyone will be on.

The last time Kupp faced Tampa Bay, he caught nine passes on 12 targets for 96 yards and two touchdowns. That was actually back in Week 3 when the Bucs secondary was healthy and their defense was playing better. Not having Whitworth at left tackle will affect the overall pass-blocking for the Rams, but that will be easily rectified by shortening up the passing game. Kupp can do it all – short passes, long passes, whatever. The guy is a stud. The only thing you need to worry about with him is whether or not you can afford his price tag.

This is going to be a tough match-up for Evans and everyone knows it, so if you are building multiple lineups, he is definitely going to be a contrarian play. Jalen Ramsey is going to spend most of his time on Evans in this match-up simply because he's the last man standing out of what used to be an absolutely amazing WR corps. But Ramsey hasn't really shadowed anyone all year and once Brady makes the adjustments to find other pass-catchers in favorable match-ups, the Rams are going to have to deploy Ramsey a little differently. Once he's off Evans, expect that to be the direction Brady goes.

On Friday's show, Jim Bowden made a good point that Hill really hasn't been himself since his bout with COVID and the last three games of the regular season tell a similar story. He seemed to bounce back a little bit last week, though he still only saw five targets, but that might have been more about the lack of need during a match-up against the Steelers. I expect Mahomes to take more than just a few shots downfield to Hill in an effort to jump out to an early lead and given the speed with which Hill plays, we could see a much stronger showing than we have in recent games. He's going to be tough to fit, but if you're doing a Chiefs stack, it's going to be difficult to leave him out.

While we haven't seen an explosive performance from Diggs in quite some time, he is still the most heavily-targeted receiver on this team and he's still got three touchdowns in his last five games. The Chiefs did a nice job against him the first time they played, but the Bills offense looks much different now than before, thanks to a much more supportive ground game. With the way the Bills have been running and how Josh Allen has been spreading the ball around, the Chiefs aren't going to be able to focus on Diggs as heavily as they did back in Week 5. That alone should free up the star wideout for more action in this game. 

Six touchdowns over his last eight games – that's the stat to keep your eyes on with regard to Beckham. Kupp will be the chalky popular pick and Van Jefferson will be the way the contrarian folk turn, but OBJ sits right there in the middle as a strong asset who comes at a very reasonable price. I'm actually surprised he comes as cheap as he does. People might be nervous about the pass-blocking and the Rams shortening up the passing game, but that doesn't mean OBJ won't get his usual red zone targets. You can't expect 100 yards, but for this price, a touchdown certainly paves the way for solid value.

He's definitely emerged as the No. 3 targets behind Hill and Kelce and he provides you some strong salary relief while also giving you a well-targeted option by Mahomes. If you're building a Chiefs stack, you can use Pringle as your third piece to help afford other big players from other games and he gives you better upside than trying to throw a dart at Mecole Hardman or Demarcus Robinson.

At this point, based off recent games, Jefferson is like a poor man's Pringle. Should we call him Muncho? He's the third target behind Kupp and OBJ and has the ability to line up both on the inside and the outside. If you're looking to stack Rams, he offers some salary relief, but keep in mind that he hasn't found the end zone in five games and only has one red zone target in that span. He will be a super-contrarian play here.

Even with the return of Emmanuel Sanders, Davis seems to be the guy more heavily favored on the outside opposite Diggs. He still saw a 71-percent snap share as opposed to just 46-percent from Sanders and that's actually been more of the norm even with Sanders healthy. Davis has great speed to stretch the field and the ability to come across the middle as well. He makes for a great pay-down if you're stacking Bills and should see a solid number of targets if this one turns into the shootout everyone is expecting.

This just might be my favorite pay-down and one-off for saving salary. With Jalen Ramsey likely on Mike Evans for the majority of this game, Brady is going to have to get creative and utilize other pass-catchers. Yes, we'll see dump-offs to Fournette and Bernard and yes, the tight ends will likely get in on more of the action, but Johnson sits as the No. 2 receiver and Brady is going to have to incorporate him more if Evans is being shadowed. We've seen Brady use Johnson in the past and with this price, even just a handful of catches in a PPR-scoring set-up will return value. 

How about a nice dart-throw. I've been a big fan of McKenzie and was one of maybe two analysts who told you to use him when he exploded against the Patriots in Week 16. His workload has diminished over the past three games with the return of Emmanuel Sanders and the presence of both Gabriel Davis and Cole Beasley, but McKenzie brings a strong speed element to the receiving corps and Allen can certainly find ways to get him involved. There is obvious risk, but if you're building multiple lineups, he might be worth a stab. 

He's coming off an explosive game last week against the Steelers and he had six grabs for 51 yards and a score the last time these teams played. I believe we have a much stronger showing from Kelce this week simply because Mahomes has shown that he can dish off to other weapons if he wants to, so now the Bills defense has to be on the lookout for not just Kelce and Hill, but for Pringle and the rushing attack as well. The Bulls rank 13th in DVOA against the tight end, but that isn't going to stop the big guy. 

You've got to love Gronk with Ramsey on Evans and Brady needing some familiarity in his pass-catchers. He'll see a heavy target share once again and will be deployed as both a tight end and a slot receiver in this one. You know his relationship with Brady is going to be front-and-center here so feel confident in what he can bring to the table. Are there minor concerns about other tight ends getting red zone looks? Sure, but Gronk is still Brady's first love.

It was a little surprising to see the Bills attack the Patriots with Knox as much as they did in the first quarter of last week's game, especially since New England ranked first in DVOA against the tight end position, but Buffalo wasn't backing down from any match-up in that game. Now we're facing the Chiefs who rank 18th in DVOA against the position and the last time they faced each other, Knox ended up with a wild 117-yard, one-touchdown game off just three catches. Asking for a repeat performance seems a little greedy, but given how often Allen looks for Knox inside the red zone, we have to give him his due.  

Here's the contrarian pay-down to Gronk. Some might say O.J. Howard and that may very well be an interesting alt-solution to the normal contrarian play, but I'll play my darts a little safer with the guy who sees a higher snap count and more targets, particularly inside the red zone. Howard could end up with something decent if he gets out in space running that seam route, so don't ignore him, but if neither of them finds the end zone, I'll be happier with the guy who at least saw the majority of targets. 

Not a fan of any of the defenses for this slate, but the Bucs did have the fourth-most takeaways in the league this year and we've definitely seen games where Stafford has made some poor decisions. I think if we're looking for a team with a strong chance to throw a pick-six, it would be the Rams, so I'll get the Bucs into my lineup.

The issues with the Bucs offensive line could lead to more sacks, especially if the Rams gets really aggressive with their pass-rush. With Ramsey taking Evans away from the game a little more, you also have some concerns over Brady being on the same page with his other route-runners. Facing Brady in Tampa is always tough, but defensively, how do you not choose Aaron Donald?

We're expecting a track meet in this one so the scoring could suppress the value of using the Bills this week. Of course, they did have the third-most takeaways and we've seen Mahomes try to force the ball into some bad spots at times. I don't love the play, but if you need the salary room, let's face it, how much better are the other choices?