NBA DFS Playbook: November 22

I like the price quite a bit on FanDuel and I would still use him on DraftKings, but likely only in tournaments. FanDuel he’s all format play for me. He’s put up 50+ FDP in three of five games and has given us 40+ FDP in nine of 10 games. Ball has been flirting with triple doubles almost nightly these days. The downside here is Washington has played at the slowest pace in the league over the last two weeks and they’re a top-11 defense as well.

On one hand, Phoenix has put the CLAMPS on opposing offenses as they’re number one in defensive rating over the last two weeks. What I like is the fact that they’ve played at the third fastest pace over that span, which maximizes the Spurs possessions. Murray is coming off arguably the worst game of his season but went for 60+ DKP in the two games prior. Murray has a 25.4% USG and averages 1.28 FP/min, both leading the team.

We’re unsure if SGA is going to suit up with an apparent sprained ankle, but if he does, the price tag on DK sticks out like a sore thumb. It’s been hard to pay the premium over 8K on DK especially considering he’s been a mixed bag of results thus far. The shot has NOT been falling, but he’s not a sub 40% shooter. His last six games he’s been at 34% and is still at 40% for the year. The Hawks are 27th in DRtg this year and this is a spot he can definitely exploit. 

Whether Tobias Harris plays or not Maxey’s a viable option, but if Harris sits, Maxey’s a lock-and-load. He has scored 22+ actual in four of five games and has put up 39+ DKP in three of five as well. With Joel Embiid and Danny Green off the floor, Maxey has a 23.7% USG rate and averages 1.01 FP/min. Sacramento is 26th in DRtg and eighth in pace, so an ideal situation on both fronts.

Beverley has been a really solid fir in this TWolves starting lineup and he’s played extremely well of late. He’s put up 28+ DKP in three straight games and has been contributing across the board in terms of production. He’s only 5K on both FD and DK and could easily hit and exceed 5X value at that price point against the team ranking 29th in DRtg this season.

Sure Kevin Durant is returning here, but the Nets are still without Joe Harris, Bruce Brown and Nicolas Claxton. Mills sees a 3% usage bump without them on the floor as it hovers around 20%. He’s still cheap enough to attack the price tag, but it’s risky, and something I’d be using in GPP’s only.

Can Memphis keep this game close is the question of the day. They’re 10 point dogs on the road in Utah and they’re 3-5 ATS on the road. Mitchell has put up 39+ DKP in every game he’s played in at least 30 minutes since October 31st and has topped 50 on multiple occasions during that span. If Memphis can’t keep it close, it’s like another 28-29 minute outing for Mitchell, which in that case makes it hard to see him topping the 42.5 for 5X. It’s hard to ignore him, however, considering the Grizzlies are likely without Dillon Brooks who’s their best perimeter defender.

I mean, this price is JUICY. I was worried about the mid 8K price points, even the upside at and around 8K. Now we’re getting him at 7.4K, which is the lowest price point we’ve seen him at. Edwards is the team leader in USG rate while also averaging 1.08 FP/min. The Pelicans are 29th in DRtg and Edwards has averaged just below 45 DKP/game against them in two meetings.

The Philly defense has been, well, horrible recently. Over the last two weeks, they’re 28th in DRtg as a team and they’re not getting Joel Embiid back today to help them out in that department. Haliburton has been extremely safe giving us a floor of 20 FP and a ceiling of 48 FP. Haliburton has looked really impressive on his home floor averaging a 54% FG, 14.1 points and 32.1 FP/game compared to 41%, 11.8 points and 28.2 FP/game on the road.

How will new head coach Alvin Gentry distribute minutes? We’ll all find out together, but he’s been the head coach of Hield before and he knows what he brings to the table. Hield can light it up if he’s given the opportunity and this is a spot in which he can do just that. GPPs only, but the price is really appealing.

We;re going to have to buy Jon Impemba a Lu Dort jersey at this rate. Maybe get him a cameo for his birthday. He loves this guy. It's warranted because of how good he’s been. He’s put up 26+ DKP in six of seven games and his match-up with ATL is a good one. ATL ranks 27th in DRtg on the year as a team. If SGA is out, the offense may run through Dort, which could bode well for his fantasy prospects.

I love the price here considering Huerter is starting with Hunter out. He’s looked good in his starting role, notching 17 & 19 actual and 27 and 32 DKP the last two games. He’s making everything from beyond the arc right now and that likely won’t continue, but he can be a sniper at times and he’s only 4.2K.

Ceiling game! That’s what Bridges is coming off of. It’s a tough match-up against Washington considering how well they’ve played defensively as well as how slow they’re playing, but Bridges poured in 39 DKP in the first meeting between them. Bridges is averaging 1.1 FP/min on the year and is the team leader in USG rate at 24.1%.

October 22nd was the last time we saw Ingram under 8K and he went for 48 DKP. Since returning from his injury, he’s shot the ball poorly but positive regression is on the way. He’s  a 43% shooter on the year, 42% from three, shooting 37% and 38% in those respective categories. Ingram’s averaging 41.6 DKP/game against the TWolves in two games this year.

We’ve been waiting for the scoring to catch up to everything else Giddey does and he’s now poured in 14+ actual points in three straight games. He’s put up 30+ DKP in four straight and the price point hasn’t been this low on DK in eight games. I know I keep mentioning it, but ATL ranks 27th in DRtg this season.

Hart was putting up big game after big game and then he flopped. That’s OK and I’m willing to go back to the well here. He had put up 27+ DKP in five straight games and had topped 36 DKP in three straight games prior to his last. Minnesota ranks 21st in rebounding and that’s where Hart thrives. If Devonte Graham sits, Hart should have plenty of success as he’s averaging .95 FP/min when Graham’s off the floor.

Everyone on the Hawks is taking a liking to how good Reddish has been these last two contests and he’s been damn good. He’s scored 17 and 19 actual and 25 and 31 DKP and now gets another exploitable defense in OKC here. Even if ATL were to blow them out, we should see Reddish on the floor late in the game. The price tag makes this close to a lock and load for me.

Thybulle played just 21 minutes in his return from COVID-19, but with Danny Green out and possibly Tobias Harris too, Thybulle could be extended quite a bit here. He’s VERY cheap here and we know he can put up massive defensive metrics and if any offense follows suit, he could have a huge day.

You can ALWAYS play Giannis, just know that this game COULD blow out. Yes it stayed competitive last time, but the perfect storm was the Magic catching Milwaukee on the second leg of a back-to-back.

This is an ELITE spot for Collins as few teams have defended power-forwards worse than OKC has this year. Over his last five games, Collins has averaged 38 DKP and has topped 40+ FP in three times over his last seven games.

Portis has been great over the last two games, notching double-doubles in each, including 40+ DKP in each. Orlando is 18th in rebounding this year and 22nd in rebounding this month. Portis could easily notch another double-double here and if his hot shooting continues, another 40 FP game isn’t out of the question.

Even if Tobias Harris plays, Niang is firmly an option here. Niang has started each of the last two games and has topped 30 minutes in each. In each game, he’s put up 24+ DKP as well and he’s only 4.2K and gets a tasty match-up in an uptempo game against the Kings. It’s not much, but Niang gets a 1% USG bump when Embiid, Harris and Green are off the floor this year.

With Gallinari finally hitting his stride, the Hawks have another potent scoring threat coming off the bench that they can rely on. He’s been good too, playing 26+ minutes in three of four games and has poured in 29+ DKP in two of three. The minutes are obviously encouraging and so has the output. Would I trust him in cash? No. But in GPPs? Absolutely.

This is the first time we’ve seen Towns’ price here in, well, all year long. It’s something we should be taking full advantage of. At this price, there’s upside. Plenty of it. He just needs to stay out of foul trouble. The Wolves have already faced NOP twice and Towns is averaging 54 DKP. The price is the first thing that REALLY stands out and the cherry on top is New Orleans being 29th in DRtg this year.

I said this earlier in the year when Daniel Theis missed time, Wood looks so much better playing alongside Alperen Sengun and coincidentally, Sengun played 24 minutes last time out and Wood put up 40 DKP. If we can come to expect the Rockets to use Sengun like they did in the last game, then Wood becomes a really intriguing play considering his price point.

And suddenly, Clint Capela is smashing everything. Capela has topped 45 DKP in two of his last three games and has two 20-point double-doubles over that span as well. He has seven double-doubles over his last 10 games and this match-up is one he should be able to dominate. As well as James Robinson-Earl has played, he’s only 6’8” and could have problems rebounding over Capela. This could be a ceiling rebounding game for CC.

It’s not a massive sample, but the numbers for Mo Bamba without Gary Harris and Cole Anthony are outstanding. In the 63, almost 64 minutes of floor time he’s had without them, Bamba has a 23.5% USG and averages 1.29 FP/min. Bamba has three double-doubles over his last five games. GPPs only.

The problem with Gafford is the foul trouble and has been the foul trouble for quite a while now. He only played 15 minutes last time out, but had two fouls in four minutes and then a third one in the first minute in the second quarter. If he stays out of foul trouble, he’s playing around 24 MPG. He just had a ceiling game against Charlotte the other day, which is seemingly the case against Charlotte bigs often.

The biggest usage bump on Philly with Embiid, Harris and Green out is in fact Korkmaz. He could even start here. The 23.6% USG leads the team and he pairs that with a solid .9 FP/min average.

Tobias Harris returned to the 76ers lineup on the 11th and in the two games prior, the two games PHI played without both Harris and Embiid, Drummond was able to grab 20+ rebounds in each contest. He put up 50+ DKP in each game as well. He's an elite play with Harris doubtful to play.

The forgotten man is always Curry and he might be their best overall scorer. That could have switched over to the emerging Maxey, but Curry is on the floor to score the basketball. He averages 1.08 FP/min without Harris, Embiid and Green on the floor and is a realllly nice price tag across the industry.

When Doug McDermott missed three games earlier in the year, it was Lonnie Walker that drew the starts, but Vassell played a big role himself. With McDermott off the floor, Vassell has a 1.3% USG bump and averages 1 FP/min.

I see the rostership already. Under 4K on DK and likely going to start. He started all three games in which McDermott didn't play earlier in the year, so it's logical to think he draws another one here. He can fill it up if his shot is falling, so definitely worth a look.

I get that Mychal Mulder is starting, but is Mulder going to play a majority of the time tonight? I find that hard to believe. Hampton, with Cole Anthony & Gary Harris out last game, played 28 minutes and broke the slate, notching 19 points, nine assists, five rebounds and 42.45 DKP. I'm interesting in GPPs.

Now, let me preface Suggs' write-up with this…the numbers suggest he is not a great FP/min guy without Cole Anthony. Suggs has taken 15+ shots in each of the last two games, has scored double-figure actual points and 28+ DKP in each of his last three. I like Hampton more, but Suggs is viable in his own right.

I said on last night's podcast I think Holmes has GPP winning upside here and I'm standing firm on that hill. If he stays out of foul trouble, he's a guy that provides a TON of upside because he provides stats in a boatload of categories. His team is -4 in a 221.5 spread and PHI has been one of the worst defensive units in basketball without Joel Embiid.