NBA DFS Playbook - March 2

In the team games that Harden has played with Philly, he has shined, notching a double and triple-double in them. He put up 58 DKP in the first game and 80 DKP in the second, which came against the Knicks. He has a 23% USG and averages 1.8 FP/min with his new team. Since February 1st, the Knicks are 26th in DRtg.

I know this is a 13 point spread, but the Thunder are the THIRD BEST team at covering the spread, which tells us this game could be more competitive than we’re being led on to believe. SGA has put up 60+ DKP in back-to-back games and has scored 36 & 37 actual points in them. SGA has averaged 46 DKP/game against DEN this year. When you take off Dort and Giddey from the floor, SGA has a 36.7% USG and averages 1.6 FP/min.

The price tag increase is warranted considering how well Fox has played lately. He has scored 20 points in eight straight games and 26 or more in seven of those eight. He’s been a fantasy point-scoring monster too, putting up 49+ DKP in two straight and in three of four. Since the arrival of Sabonis, Fox has a team-high 28.5% USG and averages 1.09 FP/min.

In the two games that Brogdon has played since January, he played 29 and 31 minutes and looked sharp when out there. He didn’t have the easiest match-up’s either, but Orlando is a much better match-up. Not to mention, since Feb. 1, Orlando is FIRST in pace of play while also ranking 19th in DRtg. Great spot for Brogdon.

We know Kyle Lowry is going to miss this game again which means Vincent is likely going to start here again. He started the Heat’s last game and scored 20 actual and 29 DKP. He’s actually played 24+ minutes in each of the first three games out of the break and has scored 22+ DKP in two straight. He’s a pretty solid value here.

The range of outcomes for Quickley’s minutes are scary, but that’s why we’re deploying him for GPPs only. He played 26 minutes last game scoring 21 points and 30.75 DKP. He’s actually now topped 21 minutes in two of three games and has 30+ DKP in those two games. If the game blows out, Quickley will be on the floor even more.

Since arriving in town, McCollum has been the big dog. He leads the team with a 28.3% USG and also averages 1.32 FP/min. The Kings, since Feb. 1, are 20th in DRtg and 5th in pace, so big bumps to McCollum. CJM has put up 42 DKP in six straight games and has topped 45 or more in five of those games.

I’m not sure HOU can stay competitive here but Mitchell has 50 FP upside in 30 minutes. He played 32 minutes in a 34-point win against them earlier before the All-Star break. Houston is the worst defensive team in the league and is number one in pace. Mitchell works in GPPs and if this game somehow stays close, he could go nutty.

Without Kyle Lowry in the lineup, Herro is the Heat’s leading usage getter at a robust 29.4% while also putting up over 1 FP/min. Herro has looked sharp coming out of the All-Star break scoring 20+ points on 50%+ in all three games, including 34+ DKP. He has 50 FP upside if he really gets it going.

The minutes are directly correlated to the shooting. When his shot is falling, Osman just plays more. He’s scored 19 and 21 points the last two games and has played 28 and 29 minutes too. It also helps that Caris LeVert and Darius Garland have been out of the lineup. Garland could return here, so maybe that’s a small damper on Osman’s playing time. If Garland sits, I love Osman for GPPs.

Aaron Wiggins has been ruled out amongst a plethora of other guys. Krejci started the second half for OKC against SAC and ended up playing 29 minutes. He put up 20.75 DKP and took 12 shots, which was impressive to see. I mean, there are multiple scenarios where he plays 25+ minutes here at min salary.

Much like Krejci above him, Johnson is greatly benefitting from injuries. Thing about Johnson is he was a first-round pick THIS YEAR by the Clippers/ He played 26 minutes and started the last game for Justise Winslow who’s out once again on Wednesday. Johnson took 10 shots and only made two, so positive regression is right around the corner.

The numbers have fallen off a bit for Ingram since his team brought in McCollum, but it’s really come down to missing shots. He’s taken 17+ shots in four straight games and hasn’t made double-digit attempts once over that span. He’s had 7+ assists and 5 rebounds in 3 straight, so if the shot falls, he could be the fantasy stud we got nightly before McCollum arrived. The Kings match-up is one that can get you back on track.

Nobody on the Knicks is playing better than Barrett right now as he’s scoring at an elite clip. He’s poured in 23+ actual points in four of five games including 46 against Miami just two games ago. He’s put up 40+ DKP in four of five games. With Rose, Walker, and Grimes off the floor, Barrett leads the team with a 27.5% USG rate and averages 1.03 FP/min.

It hasn’t been a big step back for Barnes since acquiring Domantas Sabonis and co. as he’s poured in 23 and 24 actual points in back-to-back games. He’s topped 32 DKP in three straight games as well and has topped 31 in nine of his last 11 overall. He averages .93 FP/min playing alongside Sabonis.

With Cameron Payne back, I’m slightly less bullish on Johnson than normal, but I suspect he still draws the start here considering how well he’s played. The Suns don’t need a point-guard on the floor when they have Devin Booker handling the ball, but if Payne’s shot is falling, Johnson would be the guy directly impacted. That said, if Johnson’s shot continues to fall he’s staying on the floor.

UPDATE - Gordon has been ruled OUT, Schroder is QUEST & Porter Jr. is PROB. Both Gordon & Schroder being out would be a big bump for Mathews. ORIGINAL - Silas suggested Eric Gordon may rest on the second leg of a back-to-back here, so that puts Mathews in play here. He’s played a significant role even with Gordon around, so that will only be elevated if/when Gordon is ruled out. Mathews could play 30+ minutes here if both Gordon/Porter Jr. are ruled out and we know how lethal of a shooter he can be. He’s played well against UTA this year averaging 15 points and 24 DKP/game in two meetings.

Giannis has not had any success against Miami this year, but will that end here? It could and we know the upside has. Giannis isn’t my favorite spend up of the slate, but if you’re playing multiple lineups you’d be silly not to have at least a couple shares.

Old buddy Jon Impemba has been tooting the Wendell Carter Jr. horn for quite some time and it’s time we start giving him his flowers. Carter has been great lately notching 35+ DKP in four straight and 31+ in seven straight. He has five straight double-doubles and three of four have been 20 point games. Since Feb 1., Indiana is 28th in DRtg and like we just saw last game, Carter is not going to have a difficult time with IND frontcourt.

I mean, the guy was COOKIN’ before the ejection last time out. 14 points and eight rebounds in 25 minutes. He was well on his way to a double-double and hey look…he gets the match-up against the Magic again here. Orlando is a big-time pace up spot for the Pacers and they stink defensively. Smith started last game and has now played 25+ minutes in three straight and 24+ DKP in each of them.

Look, this is risky as hell, no denying it. That said, he has massive upside when he creeps over the 20 minute plateau. We have no idea when 20+ minutes are coming out, but he’s averaged 24 minutes/game against CHA this year. CHA also has begun running a bigger lineup which bodes well for Love staying on the court. We know how dominant big men can dominate CHA frontcourt members.

I mean, if Lyles is starting again why wouldn’t we lock this play up and throw away the key? He started, played 31 minutes and had 24 points and six rebounds last time out. Do I expect him to shoot 10-of-14 from the field again? No, he is shooting 47% from the floor this year. He’s only 3.3K on DK.

I mean, yeah, if this game stays competitive…yeah. Don’t need to tell you to play Jokic.

Like we’ve been saying..Embiid was never going to be impacted by James Harden’s presence. Embiid took 27 free-throws last game and has now scored 34 and 37 actual points in his first two games with Harden. Embiid has put up 55+ DKP in 10 of his last 11 games.

Sabonis has been in a LOT of foul trouble lately and yet…44, 49, 62 DKP in each of those games. Sabonis has a double-double in each of the last three games and has 5+ assists in all three as well. Definitely more of a tournament play because the potential that Jonas Valanciunas gets Sabonis in early foul trouble once again.

So not only is Chris Paul out, but Devin Booker is now out as well. Ayton has been on the floor with at least one of them this year for all but 27.8 minutes this season. In that short span, he does have a 24.5% USG and averages 1.29 FP/min, which shouldn’t really be all that surprising. The offense should run through Ayton in this game as he matches up against Drew Eubanks.

Bamba was great against IND last time out, notching a 15-point double-double and for a guy averaging nearly two blocks per game, this isn’t even the ceiling. Indiana has been a bottom-five defense for sometime now and Bamba can exploit that.

Eubanks has started and has now played more minutes than both Greg Brown and Trendon Watford the last two games. His 29 minutes last game were almost as impressive as the double-double he notched while on the floor. This isn’t an easy match-up, but he’s extremely cheap and if he can approach 30 minutes again, he’s a strong value play.

ADDED - Sure Payne hasn't played since January, but it's been a wrist injury so he shouldn't have any issue with cardio. With Booker/Paul off the floor, Payne has a 29.5% USG and averages 1.15 FP/min. He's elite if there are no limitations.

ADDED - I'm thinking about what the Suns are going to do with both CP3 and Devin Booker out here and Holiday could definitely get a bump. We'll see how Cameron Payne looks in his first game since January. Holiday has put up 23+ DKP in two of three games and both were with Booker. GPP DART only.