NBA DFS Playbook: March 9

Who can stop Luka Doncic right now? When he’s scoring the way he is he’s as unstoppable as anyone in the league. This is a nice pace-up spot for Dallas as the Knicks have played at the 12th highest pace in the league since the All-Star break and are giving up a lot of points. They had a 110 DRtg before the All-Star break and it’s 113 since the break.

With a lot of elite spend-ups on the slate, Murray may be a forgotten man here. Murray has nearly hit 60 FP in two straight games without recording a triple-double. He’s elite everywhere and has 60+ FP upside in his bag.

I mean, what can we say about this kid? He’s on a different planet right now. He scored 33 points for the third straight game, six times he’s scored 32+ in his last seven games. Oh, he’s a willing passer too as he had 14 assists on Tuesday and has two double-doubles in his last five games. He has now put up 60+ DKP in four of six games.

UPDATE: Domantas Sabonis has been ruled out and it's VERY hard to ignore the fact that Fox might take 30 shots here. Like him more than I did before. ORIGINAL: I like Fox and what he’s bringing to the table, I’m just unsure about the massive ceiling at this price point as he’s up over 9K. The shot attempts, scoring, and game environment are all in his favor, however.

I made my case on the NBA DFS Podcast last night. If LeBron James sits again, I have interest in Westbrook. He’s averaged 51 DKP/game against HOU this year & is shooting 44% on the road compared to 41% at home. If you take LBJ and AD off the floor, RWB has a 34.3% USG and averages 1.32 FP/min. The price isn’t bad either.

I think we have to have Jalen Brunson out to get to Dinwiddie at this price point, but he’s in play if Brunson sits. He’s put up 23+ points in two straight and has played 36+ minutes in each. He’s going to get a lot of open looks and one-on-ones with Luka Doncic taking up most of the defenses attention.

I love this match-up for both teams and there should be a lot of offense considering both teams are top-five in pace this year. Both Christian Wood and Jae’Sean Tate are questionable and in the situation both sit, Porter Jr. has a 28.7% USG rate and averages 1.06 FP/min. If one of them sits, he’s an elite play, and if both play, it’s GPPs only.

This game has an 18.5 point spread. 18.5! Anfernee Simons hasn’t been ruled out yet, but if he is Williams is an elite play. He’s coming off 26 and 49 DKP and 21 and 27 actual points in each of the last two games. He is clearly not afraid to shoot the ball as he’s notched 14 and 18 shots the last two games. 

UPDATE: Brandon Ingram has been ruled out. Fire Graham up. ORIGINAL: Graham was well on his way to 30 minutes on Tuesday but the game was out of hand and the Pelicans didn’t use him after the 9-minute mark in the 4th quarter. The reason he took on a bigger role was that Brandon Ingram was out. If Ingram sits again, I’d have tournament interest in Graham under 4k.

If you take a look at what McCollum is doing right now, you’d say New Orleans made the right decision acquiring him at the deadline. He’s been awesome and without Ingram this year, he has a 33% USG and averages 1.54 FP/min. We’re unsure if Ingram is in/out, but if he’s out McCollum is a lock against the Magic.

Jon Impemba has talked about it each time Rozier has faced Boston. He wants to show out and show out he has done. He's averaging 46 DKP/game against them and has played 40 minutes/game. He went off on Tuesday scoring 30 actual and 50+ DKP for the second straight game and has now put up 47+ DKP in five of six games. Tough spot, so limit exposure to GPPs.

We haven’t seen this price point on DraftKings since OCTOBER. Take advantage! We know Brown has massive upside when he gets going and has shown a nice floor – at this price – in recent weeks. Charlotte is playing at one of the fastest paces in the league, is on a back-to-back and is not very good on the defensive side of the ball.

I mean, we’re in the midst of Cunningham’s best basketball as a pro right about now. He’s poured in 20+ actual points in four straight games and has put up 36+ DKP in each of them. He has double-doubles in two of three games and was one rebound short in two of his last four, so he could have them in four straight. He was that close twice. The Bulls are struggling defensively right now, ranking 25th in DRtg since the All-Star break.

I know the price isn’t great, but Green continues to deliver. He’s playing the best he has of his young career right now as he’s poured in 20+ points in four of his last five games and six times over his last eight. Green has had a LOT of success against the Lakers this year, averaging 18.3 points and 30.4 DKP/game and that success came before his recent stretch of play.

The Kings have turned to DDV more and more lately as he’s topped 25+ minutes in four straight games. In each game he’s had 25+ DKP as he does a little of everything for this team. This is one of the best totals on the board and one of the best game environments as well. GPP play.

Again…18 point spread. Biggest we’ve seen all year, but that doesn’t really impact Johnson here. If/when this game blows out, Johnson’s topping 25 minutes. He’s last two games, he’s played 26 and 29 and has scored 14 & 15 actual and 25 and 28 DKP. He’s a pretty solid value for just 4K.

If he plays, he has a match-up against the worst defense in the NBA so yeah…the interest for LBJ is there.

With the Celtics taking on Charlotte and Tatum in a fantastic rhythm right now, it’s hard not to like him. The C’s have a 115 implied point total and averaged 109 PPG on the year. Tatum has 52+ DKP in four of five games and is coming off 54 actual and 67 DKP..Jaylen Brown played that game.

The price continues to rise and *maybe* this isn’t the best spot, but the guy’s been dominant and there’s really no denying that. Barrett has averaged 42 DKP over his last five games and has flashed nearly 50 FP upside over that span as well. Barrett’s been rebounding the ball great and if Mitchell Robinson doesn’t suit up, this could be a ceiling game on the glass for him.

With the news that Domantas Sabonis has been suspended for a game, Barnes becomes extremely appealing tonight. This will only elevate De’Aaron Fox for tonight, but Barnes too. Without everyone Sacramento is missing and/or traded, Barnes averages a JUICY 1.28 FP/min, which is literally on par with Fox. Great game environment and total here.

With the Bulls struggling so mightily defensively, Bey could have one of those games. He has a pretty low floor, but he has a 40+ FP ceiling. Without Isaiah Stewart this year, we see his rebounding numbers go up pretty significantly, so he could flirt with a double-double here.

We saw LBJ sit last time out and THT played 31 minutes while scoring 18 points and 30 DKP. He’d be a fantastic value and in line for another workload like the Spurs game if LBJ sits out.

He has not had much success against ATL this year, but he’s firmly in play. He only played 28 minutes on Tuesday and put up 67 DKP. The amount of players in the league that can do that fits on one hand.

Let’s see if there’s an increased minutes limit before fully committing to Porzingis. I wouldn’t love this play, on a 12-game slate, if he was capped in the low 20s again, even if he did put up 36.75 DKP in just 21 minutes in his debut. It just limits the upside. If we get a 25-30 minute cap, all systems go in GPPs.

The guy continues to churn out solid performance after solid performance. He has notched seven straight double-doubles and has 35+ DKP in six straight. New Orleans matches Orlando’s big lineup with a big lineup of their own and Jaxson Hayes spends a lot of time around the rim, presenting WCJ with a lot of opportunities to block shots and grab boards.

We’ve talked about it all year; PF is a spot to attack for the Bulls. Since the loss of Patrick Williams early on, they haven’t been able to defend the position. Grant has looked good lately averaging 35.4 DKP/game and without Isaiah Stewart this year, Grant has a 25.4% USG and averages 1.04 FP/min. 

We saw Collins reenter the starting lineup after coming off the bench in his first game back and he looked good, playing 31 minutes and double-doubling, notching 35 DKP. He’s played well against MIL this year averaging 36 DKP/game in two meetings. Huge total, fast pace, huge opportunity for Collins.

Every so often we get these massive blow-up games from Horford as we got just two games ago from Memphis and one of those is within reason for tonight’s game. Horford is sound defensively still and does a little of everything offensively, so when the scoring comes along with every else there is 50 FP in his bag.

I would love Anthony more if LBJ sat, but he’s been entrenched in this Lakers rotation regardless of who’s in/out since Anthony Davis went down. With both AD and LBJ off the floor, Anthony has a 24% USG and averages 1.01 FP/min.

If Wood sits, and he didn’t participate in shootaround, it’s hard not to like Sengun. He was two rebounds shy of a double-double against the Heat and the Lakers are MUCH worse defensively than the Heat. If you take both Wood and Tate off the floor, Sengun has a 24% USG and averages 1.14 FP/min.

Guy has a 40-point triple-double on his resume. What more needs to be said? Now the Kings are without Sabonis and Holmes in the front court? Good luck trying to stop the Joker.

We have a lot of things working with us and against us here in the Towns camp. He’s been a MONSTER offensively lately. He looks different. He’s moving differently. Both Anthony Edwards and D’Angelo Russell are listed as questionable as well. The problem is will the Thunder keep this game close? We’ve seen monster performances from Towns go awry this year because of blowouts. GPPs only b/c of the blowout possibilities. 

Even though the Magic front court is very long and lanky, offenses have not really had a problem scoring against them. With Ingram out and Hart and NAW gone, Valanciunas averages 1.1 FP/min and has a usage rate of 24.9%. Solid GPP option as his price declines.

I think it’s safe to assume that Bagley starts this game with Isaiah Stewart ruled out. Stewart left last game and Bagley started the second half and in his place, Bagley scored 40 FP in 36 minutes. Bagley has a 23% USG and averages .99 FP/min with Stewart off the floor. Elite value option on this slate.

No Sabonis or Holmes tonight means Jones could get a nice role with the team. It’s a very tough match-up with Jokic, but he’s so, so cheap. He averages over 1.00 FP/min with everyone out or traded away for SAC.

ADDED - This is not a great spot for Booker in his return from the COVID-19 list, but Miami could be playing without Jimmy Butler here, which would be a bullet dodged. With CP3 & Cam Johnson out, Booker has a 36.2% USG and averages 1.38 FP/min this year.

ADDED - With Wood and Tate not attending shootaround today, one would only assume that means more run for Martin.  Look at each of the last two games he's topped 30 minutes..28 & 37 DKP! 

ADDED - Hampton has an interesting case based on who's out/potentially out. Markelle Fultz has been ruled out on the b2b and Jalen Suggs is QUEST. Hampton played 34 minutes on the 5th in a game without Suggs and now, he may be out and Fultz is out too.