NBA DFS Showdown Playbook March 12: Wizards vs. Trail Blazers
Published: Mar 12, 2022
Washington Wizards @ Portland Trail Blazers
Total: 220.5
Spread: WAS -6
Washington Wizards Injuries
Kristaps Porzingis - OUT
Portland Trail Blazers Trailblazers
Damian Lillard - OUT
Jusuf Nurkic - OUT
Anfernee Simons - OUT
Justise Winslow - OUT
Nassir Little - OUT
Eric Bledsoe - OUT
MVP/CAPTAIN
With Kristaps Porzingis ruled out, it’s back to being the Kyle Kuzma show in Washington. If you remove all the players that are hurt or have been traded from the floor, Kuma leads the team in USG rate at 29.5% and in FP/min at 1.22. There has been nobody worse in the league than Portland lately either, as they’re 0-6 with the worst DRtg since the All-Star break.
Regardless of how bad Portland has played, Trendon Watford is on the floor. Over the last four games, he’s averaged 30.2 minutes and 31.7 DKP/game. Washington, like Portland, has been dreadful defensively since the All-Star break, ranking 28th in DRtg on the year. Watford has double-double upside here.
We saw the upside Brandon Williams has in his bag just two games ago as he scored 27 points and 49 DKP. With Anfernee Simons ruled out, Portland is going to throw Williams out there for 30+ minutes as long as this game stays competitive. Williams is coming off a poor shooting performance but had 21 & 27 actual points in the two games prior.
UTILITY
Rui Hachimura has been playing more and more lately as he played 26 minutes on Friday and has now played 24+ minutes in three of four games. He’s put up 15+ points and 25+ minutes in each of three games he’s played 24 or more minutes. Now there’s no Kristaps Porzingis and the way is being paved for Hachimura to play even more. He has a 23% USG with the guys that are out and/or have been traded away.
If Josh Hart could make a shot, maybe he’d actually be a little valuable. He has not been good in a Trailblazers uniform and has shot 22% or worse in three straight games. He hasn’t topped 27 DKP in any game since the All-Star break. That said, Portland has been getting blown out every game and they haven’t needed to extend Hart very often. This game could actually be competitive and it’s against the 28th ranked defense since the break.
It’s nights like Friday that will depress a player's ownership of the following slate, so let’s jump back on the bandwagon while most people are exiting. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had 30+ DKP in three straight games and now there’s no Kristaps Porzingis involved. KCP could become the team's second offensive option behind Kyle Kuzma tonight.
Keon Johnson has had a steady role with the Trailblazers in the past week as he’s topped 26 minutes in three straight games. He’s made the most of his opportunity putting up 14+ points and 25+ DKP in each of them. Johnson’s going to continue to play plenty off of the bench with Anfernee Simons ruled out.
Corey Kispert is nothing more than a GPP dart. If his shot is falling he’s going to approach and likely top 30 minutes, but if it’s not, he doesn’t provide us with much.
With Kristaps Porzingis out, the expectation is one of these two will start, most likely Daniel Gafford is the one in the starting five. Both will have a role, however, both hover around 20 minutes. Gafford has the higher ceiling but Thomas Bryant will likely be the guy checking in with lower ownership. Bryant hasn’t played since the 4th, but with Zinger out he should play. Gafford, however, is the guy I prefer.
Familiarity, maybe, but Tomas Satoranky just plays well in a Wizards uniform. Since signing in Washington he’s played well and had the best game of his season against the Lakers on Friday scoring 14 points and 27.75 DKP. His playing time has fluctuated between 14-20 minutes since arriving in Washington but the last two games have been 19 and 20. That number may only go up if he keeps performing well. Worth a dart.
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Player News
ESPN’s Shams Charania reports that Darius Garland underwent surgery on a great toe injury and is expected to miss 4-5 months, which will likely include time to start the 2025-26 season.
Garland picked up the injury on March 23 against the Jazz and played through it before ultimately missing time. He missed four of the Cavs’ final seven games of the regular season and Games 1 and 2 of the first-round playoff series with Indiana, re-aggravating the injury in the process. If Ty Jerome re-signs with Cleveland this offseason, he’s the guy most likely to replace Garland in the starting five. Donovan Mitchell’s usage rate spiked when Garland sat and he’d appear to be in line for some big fantasy lines early in the season while Garland is sidelined.
Alex Caruso shot 6-of-11 from the field and 4-of-4 from the foul line in Sunday’s Game 2 win over the Pacers, accounting for 20 points, three rebounds, one assist and four three-pointers.
Caruso has been Oklahoma City’s most productive reserve in the NBA Finals, which makes some sense due to him being the lone player on the roster with a championship ring. After recording 11 points and a complete stat line in Game 1, Caruso was more lethal as a scorer in Game 2. A double-digit score in three of his last four appearances, the 20 points are the most Caruso has tallied in a game since Game 1 of the Thunder’s second-round series against Denver. Given the matchup, he should continue to hit the high-20s in minutes, which raises Caruso’s ceiling on both ends of the floor. Game 3 is on Wednesday in Indianapolis.
Aaron Wiggins finished Sunday’s Game 2 win over the Pacers with 18 points (6-of-11 FGs, 1-of-2 FTs), four rebounds, one assist, one steal and five three-pointers.
After only scoring 28 points in Game 1, Oklahoma City’s reserves were more impactful in Game 2, finishing with 48. Wiggins helped lead the way, as the 18 points were the most he’s scored in a game since the Thunder’s Game 1 win over the Grizzlies in the first round. Expecting production of this caliber from Wiggins consistently would be a bit much. Still, he’ll need to be a factor, especially if Oklahoma City continues to start Cason Wallace (4/3/1/2/1 in 24 minutes). Sunday’s rout was a reminder of what Wiggins is capable of offensively.
Jalen Williams tallied 19 points (5-of-14 FGs, 8-of-9 FTs), five rebounds, five assists, one steal and one three-pointer in Sunday’s Game 2 win over the Pacers.
After shooting 6-of-19 from the field in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, Williams was better in Sunday’s victory. While the percentage still has room for growth, J-Dub attempted nine free throws after getting just four on Thursday. Add in the rebounds and assists, and Williams managed to bring more to the table following his disappointing Finals debut. Oklahoma City outscored Indiana by a 33-21 margin in the second quarter, and Williams was a factor, shooting 3-of-6 from the field and scoring nine points. That’s the level of offensive aggression the Thunder will need J-Dub to bring to the table consistently if they’re to win the series. Game 3 is on Wednesday in Indianapolis.
Chet Holmgrem accumulated 15 points (6-of-11 FGs, 2-of-2 FTs), six rebounds, one assist, one block and one three-pointer in Sunday’s Game 2 win over the Pacers.
While Holmgren’s point total wasn’t much to write home about in Game 2, it represented a marked improvement over what he brought to the table in Game 1. Having scored six points in the opening game of the NBA Finals, Holmgren exceeded that number in the first quarter of Game 2 by putting up nine points. He was held in check for the rest of the night, but other Thunder players stepped up to help Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shoulder the offensive workload. If the Holmgren who showed up to begin Game 2 is the norm, Oklahoma City’s chances of winning the franchise’s first NBA title increase substantially.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander recorded 34 points (11-of-21 FGs, 11-of-12 FTs), five rebounds, eight assists, four steals, one block and one three-pointer in Sunday’s Game 2 win over the Pacers.
While Gilgeous-Alexander did score 38 points in Oklahoma City’s Game 1 defeat, he shot below 50 percent from the field. The NBA’s Most Valuable Player was more forceful in Game 2, and the approach led to SGA attempting 12 free throws while also shooting over 50 percent from the field. And Gilgeous-Alexander made some history during the victory, becoming the 12th player in league history to score at least 3,000 points in a season (regular season and playoffs). Putting up high point totals should not be an issue in this series, even with the Pacers’ ability to use multiple defenders on SGA. The key will be how he gets those points, and how often the Thunder point guard can get to the foul line. Game 3 is on Wednesday in Indianapolis.