NBA DFS Playbook: March 21

The Timberwolves have been very stout defensively, but not many teams have been able to stop Luka Doncic lately. He’s been dominant. Now, 12K on DK signals we need a ceiling game and we know he’s capable of it, but this isn’t the easiest spot as I previously mentioned. GPPs for me.

Few teams around the league have been worse defensively than the Lakers and that’s who Garland gets to square up with here. They’re 27th in DRtg and are still playing at a fast tempo, so advantage Garland in every facet of the game. Over his last six games, Garland has averaged 41.3 minutes and 46.2 DKP/game. He’s doing that on 37% shooting as a 46% shooter. Imagine what he’s going to do when the shot falls, and likely falls in this spot.

Charlotte has actually been about league average in March defensively, but if Brandon Ingram sits here the offense is going to flow through McCollum. With Ingram off the floor, CJM has a 32.7% USG rate and averages 1.4 FP/min. We haven’t really been able to get much of a ceiling from CJM lately because he’s been involved with three blowouts in four games and shot 9 of 27 in the other game. He has a near 60 FP ceiling without Ingram.

Williams and the Blazers did not play well at all on Sunday, but they have Monday to redeem themselves here against a bad Pistons team. On the year, Williams has a robust 26.4% USG rate and averages .95 FP/min. Williams has flashed 40+ FP upside on multiple occasions lately. GPP play for me. Josh Hart has been ruled out since writing this, so the offensive output will only increase here.

Porter is beginning to show a little more consistency lately and although he’s coming off a 5-for-18 shooting night on Sunday, the 18 shots are great to see. He won’t go 5-for-18 against Washington as they rank 28th in DRtg since the beginning of March. We’ll see if Eric Gordon suits up or not, but when Gordon is off the floor, Porter has a 24.3% USG rate.

Dragic has looked good lately and without Kyrie Irving present, he’ll continue to be relied upon for heavy minutes. He’s played 36 minutes in back-to-back games and has topped 30 DKP in each contest. He scored 20 points in one game and had 10 assists in the other, showing us his versatility. 

This is an interesting option because there really isn’t any reason he’s this cheap other than DK not factoring in he had 8 DKP last game because he was ejected. The two games prior he put up 36 and 42. That said, he has to guard Luka Doncic here, so will he get himself into foul trouble? He was able to play 30 minutes against Dallas earlier in the year, but Doncic didn’t play. I like the price for GPPs.

Dunn has looked really sharp during his first four games with his new team. He’s put up 24+ DKP in three straight games and has played 20+ minutes in all four games as well. He’s still very solid defensively and has 4+ assists in three straight games as well. If he scores too, he has 30 FP upside.

ADDED - A few scenario's at play here. Pritchard could start with Marcus Smart ruled out, but he also could be the sixth man off the bench. He's played 18+ minutes in three straight games and has 28+ DKP in two straight. It's a great spot for GPPs.

Although the Jazz are on the second leg of a back-to-back, they’re staying in NY to take on the Nets after playing the Knicks on Sunday. Mitchell has been great lately, pouring in 50+ DKP in three straight games and has scored 36 and 37 points in each of the last two games. Brooklyn is a bad defensive unit and IF Mike Conley were to sit out again, Mitchell is a lock and load.

We’re not going to see Jerami Grant out there for the Pistons on Monday but we are going to see Cunningham. With Grant off the floor this year, Cunningham has a 27.6% USG, which leads the team, and averages 1.07 FP/min as well. Cunningham has poured in 40+ DKP in four of five games and has put up 50+ DKP in two of those contests.

LaVine is coming off arguably his worst game of the season against Phoenix, but we know how good PHX can be defensively. Toronto isn’t bad either, but they’re not PHX. LaVine’s 7.6K price tag on DK is tied for the lowest it’s been all year. He’s averaged 40 DKP/game across three meetings vs. TOR this year.

Philly has not been great defensively this month ranking 17th in DRtg, which bodes well for Herro and the Heat offense. There’s also a chance Jimmy Butler sits this game out, which would make Herro an even better play. He has a 29.2% USG rate and averages 1.1 FP/min with Butler, Oladipo, and Vincent off the floor. I’m OK with Herro if Butler plays. Nobody will play him in that case.

I don’t love the numbers Curry has with Durant on the floor, but it’s only a 76-minute sample and there is no Kyrie Irving here, so Curry is likely the team’s second scoring option. Curry poured in 27 actual points the other day and it’s his second straight game – albeit 8 days in between – in which he’s scored 26 points.

I’d be interested in Schroder if there’s no Eric Gordon in the Rockets lineup. Schroder has two games of 29+ DKP over his last three and with Gordon out, he’s played 24+ minutes in four straight games. Washington is 28th in DRtg since March 1, so if Gordon is ruled out again, Schroder is firmly a target at this price.

ADDED - White has not been great off of the Celtics bench truthfully, but maybe he starts here with Smart and Rob Williams out. Either way, he's underpriced on a team that should use him for 30+ minutes here with two key members out.

Even in a game Durant scores 38 actual, he gave us just 53 DKP and at 10.7K, that’s just not enough. The thing is, there is no Kyrie Irving again, potentially no Goran Dragic, and we know Durant has 50+ actual point upside. Is he my top spend up? No, but I’m not leaving him out of my player pool.

I speculated to Jon on the podcast that Tatum and a number of Celtics could rest here. This is the second leg of a back-to-back, traveling from Denver to Oklahoma City to play against one of the worst teams in the league. Tatum has 50+ DKP in seven of his last nine games and yet, DK has him priced below 10K.

The price tag continues to rise and that’s OK because Bridges has balled out lately. He’s scored 23+ points in three of four games and has put up 44+ DKP in each of those three. Since March 1, Bridges has a 22.7% USG rate and averages 1.13 FP/min. Both of these two teams have been top-15 in pace since the start of March and NOLA is 8th, so this is a pace up spot for CHA too.

The Pistons are down a bunch of pieces here including Jerami Grant, so Bey stands out quite a bit. When you remove the guys who are out + traded, Bey has a 24.6% USG rate and averages 1.13 FP/min. Bey has scored 78 and 40 DKP in the last two games and now gets the WORST defense in the game right now.

It’s hard not to like what Brown’s been giving us lately. His price continues to rise, but it’s completely warranted. Brown has put up 33+ DKP in four straight games and has done so in seven of his last eight. With Goran Dragic potentially out here, Brown could be asked to run the offense a little more especially considering we’ve seen 5+ assists in three of four.

Portland ruled Josh Hart out and Winslow is not listed on the injury report and at this price point, I like the play. The last time out, Winslow played 28 minutes and put up 16 points, five rebounds, five assists, three steals, and one block, good for 36.25 DKP. The 28 minutes should be locked in with Hart out.

With Gary Trent Jr. ruled out as well as OG Anunoby, Siakam stands out like a sore thumb. Siakam had a double-double on Sunday and has now put up 46+ DKP in five of his last six games. Siakam has had his way with the Bulls this year, putting up 47 DKP/game in two games.

It’s hard to like what we’ve seen from DeRozan lately, but we haven’t seen this price for DDR in quite a while. That’s what really stands out. If he can get it going, he has a nice ceiling in this spot.

I love Mobley in this spot as the Lakers have absolutely nobody to match-up with him here. They’re 27th in DRtg in the month of March. As good as LBJ is, Mobley has a distinct advantage over him. Without Allen, Sexton, and Rondo this year, Mobley has a 23.3% USG rate and 1.07 FP/min. Mobley has topped 40+ DKP in six of his last eight games and he’s topped 50+ DKP multiple times over that span.

With Joel Embiid & James Harden ruled out, Harris is simply too cheap. With Embiid off the floor as well as Seth Curry & Andre Drummond, Harris has a 25.2% USG rate and averages 1.14 FP/min. It’s a tough spot against Miami, sure, but Harris is under 7K and is playing without a guy with a 30% USG rate. Hard to ignore.

With Jerami Grant ruled out, we expect Bagley to enter the starting lineup here. In his last start, against the Magic, Bagley scored 20 points and grabbed 11 rebounds. Bagley has a 25.8% USG rate and 1.07 FP/min with Jerami Grant off the floor.

It’s great to see Hayes’ minutes lately, coming off 38 minutes on Sunday and has now topped 30+ minutes in three of five games. He’s also put up 30+ DKP in three of his last four games and had a double-double on Sunday. Charlotte is 18th in rebounding in March and that opens up the opportunity for back-to-back double-doubles.

We saw Boucher start the second half over Precious Achiuwa and play nearly 40 minutes on Sunday and with Gary Trent out, we could once again see Boucher get the same run. In each of the last three times he’s played at least 30 minutes, Boucher has put up 35+ DKP. Under 5K is hard to ignore.

Valanciunas let us all down the last time these two teams met, but it was a blowout and there was no CJ McCollum. This time around McCollum is here to take some of the pressure off of Valanciunas. He put up 50 DKP on Monday and has put up 40+ DKP in four of six games.

I know Wood had a bad performance on Sunday, but all of Houston did and now they get to face off with a Washington team playing absolutely no defense. They’re 28th in DRtg in March and we saw Wood’s upside when he plays a full complement of minutes putting up 70 DKP just two games ago. 

For the time being, Horford is listed as active on the back-to-back and Rob Williams has been ruled out. I would’ve expected it to be the other way around, but maybe Horford is seeking revenge on OKC? I still think there is time for Boston to rule Horford out, but while he’s not out and is planning on suiting up, there’s upside at this price without Williams or Smart on the floor.

With FVV out, Achiuwa started on Sunday. Well, FVV is back and now Gary Trent is out, so will he start again? It’s hard to say because he didn’t start the second half, but still played 34 minutes and scored 23 actual points. Khem Birch does not generally play more than 20 minutes, so we should feel fairly good with Achuiwa’s floor in terms of minutes here.

ADDED - First Embiid was ruled out and now Harden joined him too. It's Tyrese Maxey day, y'all. Maxey has a 28.9% USG rate with both of them, Curry, and Drummond off the floor this year. He averages north of 1 FP/min too.

ADDED - Thybulle isn't known for his offense but anytime their is offense coming from him, he has plenty of fantasy upside. Without Joel Embiid and James Harden, we could see him score double-digit actual points here. He's actually scored 10+ points in two straight and scored 30+ DKP last time out.

ADDED - Niang has played a pretty big role lately to begin with, topping 25 minutes in four of his last five games. He's put up 20+ DKP in two straight and three of five and that was WITH Embiid and Harden. Both are out, opening the door for Niang to have an even bigger role offensively.

ADDED - The ideal spot of all ideal spots and is now playing without Kyle Kuzma. Porzingis, without Kuzma this season, has a 32.9% USG and averages 1.48 FP/min. Will he play 30 minutes is the question?

ADDED - I like Hachimura now that Kuzma is out. He'll start and likely hover between 25-30 minutes. He has a lot of offensive upside and without Beal, Dinwiddie, and Kuzma on the floor, he has a 21.9% USG and averages .9 FP/min.

ADDED - We likely see Avdija extended here like we did last game. He played 32 minutes and had 31.5 DKP last time out. Kyle Kuzma has been ruled out and has put up 24+ DKP in three of four games.

ADDED - Gafford is interesting in tournaments because he's such a big fantasy producer when he's on the floor. He's viable because Porzingis can play power-forward next to Gafford. With Beal, Dinwiddie, and Kuzma off the floor, he averages 1.17 FP/min.

ADDED - Claxton has had a very sizable role with the team to begin with splitting time with Drummond, but now Drummond is listed doubtful. It's not a great spot against Gobert, but if he can stay out of foul trouble 30+ minutes is in the cards and he's a double-double threat.

WHOOPS. Forgot to include him originally. Obviously in play in a return to Cleveland.