NBA DFS Playbook - March 26

Every time I think the price is getting too high for Irving he one-ups his last fantasy performance. He’s put up 40+ points and 60+ FP in three of the last four games and is in an unstoppable groove right now. The Heat are obviously an elite defense, but Irving, when playing this well, is actually unguardable.

UPDATE: Brogdon placed on injury report. ORIGINAL: If Brogdon does in fact play, which he figures to do not being listed on the injury report, he’s in play. 7.5K is a good price point for a guy with 50 FP upside. Toronto has been very good defensively lately, but Brogdon has a 23.3% USG and averages 1.02 FP/min playing alongside Tyrese Haliburton this season

Mitchell has looked amazing running an offense without De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis over the last two games as he’s scored 25+ actual points and 38+ DKP. With Fox, Sabonis, Holmes, Haliburton, and Davis off the floor, he has a 5.2% USG bump up near 27% and averages right around 1 FP/min.

It’s not the easiest match-up, but with Ja Morant out, Melton has looked fantastic of late. He’s scored 16+ points and 28+ DKP in three straight games. In two of the three games, he’s only played 20 and 21 minutes. With Morant off the floor this year, Melton has a 23% USG rate and he averages 1.14 FP/min.

Jones continues starting and thriving while Morant is out, notching 26+ DKP in three straight games. He’s played 30+ minutes in competitive games and has topped 25 in all three of his starts. He has double-double upside and could put up 40+ DKP on his best day. He averages .97 FP/min without Morant on the floor this year.

This could be the perfect spot for Hyland here. He likely plays big minutes if this game blows out (which likely happens if SGA sits) and he’s in the rotation if the game stays competitive. He was fantastic against PHX last time out, scoring 23 points and 36 DKP over 25 minutes of action. Over his last five games, he’s averaged 24.2 minutes, 16.8 points, and 36 DKP.

I know we’re not used to seeing this price point for Bane, but it’s justified and we shouldn’t ignore him. Still under 8K without Ja Morant, Bane has put up 40+ DKP in three of his last five games and has 37+ in five of six. On top of that, Bane has scored 23+ points in three straight, proving to be Memphis’ top scorer without Morant.

If Herro suits up, which we’re not sure will happen, he’s in play. He’s just 7.3K, which is a good price tag, and gets a subpar Brooklyn defense in this match-up. He’s averaged 31 DKP against BKN this year and has three 40+ DKP games over his last four. Brooklyn is 19th in DRtg in the month of March. GPPs only.

Green’s a GPP option only that can really get it going offensively at times. He has a 40 point ceiling, but sub 20 DKP floor as well. These two teams literally matched up just last night and Green scored 23 actual points, knocking down five threes.

I mean, the Kings keep running DDV out for big-time minutes and with Fox and Sabonis out, why wouldn’t we trust he’ll continue to have a big role. DDV has played 29+ minutes in five straight games and has 24+ DKP in four of five. He’s topped 30 three times over that span as well. 

This is such a good spot for Allen as he’s playing without Jrue Holiday and potentially Giannis Antetokounmpo as well. Allen scored 21 actual and 31 DKP last game without Middleton, so he’s likely going to play a solid role when one or multiple of their stars are out. This is also a revenge narrative too.

Durant has been superman lately and they’ve needed him to be. He’s averaged 33.3 points, eight rebounds, and seven assists per game over his last four. All up from his season averages. He’s expensive, but that may keep people off when that plus the fact they’re playing the Heat is brought into play.

We saw what Butler is asked to do without Tyler Herro in the lineup on Friday and if Herro sits out again, Butler has a tall task on his hands again facing off against the Nets. He’s averaged a tick below 40 DKP against them and is coming off a 50 burger on Saturday.

The last time we saw Markkanen against the Bulls he dropped 28 points and 40+ DKP and with seeding really mattering to CLE, he’s going to continue to play all the minutes he can handle. He’s played 36+ minutes in three of four games and has put up 30+ DKP in three of four games. 

I know Barnes sucked against the Pacers and that’s very hard to do, but I don’t expect it to happen again. The Kings are once again without their top two players in Fox and Sabonis here. Without all the guys the Kings are without/have traded, Barnes is nearly at 24% USG and 1 FP/min. He’s 6K without those guys.

Now that we’ve seen Brooks get extended past the 30-minute limit, there’s no reason he should be below 6K without Ja Morant on the floor. Brooks has a 29.3% USG rate and averages 1.07 FP/min without Ja Morant this year. Brooks has put up 20+ points and 30+ DKP in two straight games.

Will Anderson once again start & play 30+ minutes? Chris Duarte has been ruled out again and multiple other key rotation members are questionable. If he starts and guys are out, it’s hard to ignore Anderson.

If he plays, yeah, massive upside. Especially with Jrue Holiday out.

It’s really quite easy to attack Indiana’s defense and Siakam has been awesome lately. He’s put up 46+ DKP in five of seven games. Siakam, with Gary Trent out (listed QUEST), has a 27.1% USG rate and averages1.13 FP/min.

If K Love starts like he did the other day it’s hard to ignore him. He is only 6.5K and that’s enticing. With Allen, Sexton, and Rondo out of the lineup, Love has a 24% USG rate and averages 1.26 FP/min. Love’s an elite play on this slate if starting. GPPs exclusively if he’s coming off the bench.

Look, Isaiah Jackson is already out, Jalen Smith, Goga Bitadze, and Malcolm Brodgon are all questionable. Brissett has played 33+ minutes in two straight games and has put up 25+ DKP in each. In fact, he’s put up 25+ DKP in four straight games overall. He has double-double upside.

Another Pacer that will benefit if a lot of players are ruled out. Watch for the news, but Taylor has averaged 25 minutes/game over his last four, so he’s likely in play either way at this price.

Will Metu be extended once again or was his 26 minutes a product of his 8-for-11 shooting? Likely the latter, but with Domantas Sabonis and Richaun Holmes out, Metu should have more time on the floor. With everyone out for the Kings, or traded, Metu averages .9 FP/min.

OKC is 29th in DRtg and 22nd in rebounding this month. Should be a GREAT spot for Jokic, right? Jokic has only averaged 45 DKP/game against OKC in three meetings this season. Weird. I still think he’s as good as it gets tonight.

Wood didn’t exactly shoot the ball all that well on Friday, but he still put up 37 DKP across 26 minutes. This is the SAME match-up so we’re running it right back.

Drummond's minutes have been solid and the 28 he played last game was awesome. Drummond has been scoring, which is a nice winkle, because know how good he is on the glass too. GPP play.

Goga has been getting a lot of run lately, notching 29+ minutes in two straight games and Isaiah Jackson is out and Jalen Smith is QUEST. Goga is a FP/min monster averaging 1.05 FP/min with Turner and Jackson off the floor.

Jones started and played 30 minutes last game and that shouldn't shock anyone that that's coming again here. He had 24 DKP, which isn't great, but he's only 4.4K on DK.

ADDED - Eric Gordon out puts Christopher in play for me. Christopher has played well regardless whether Gordon's been in, but if this game blows out again, we're going to get 25 or so minutes out of him.

ADDED - Hard not to love Okeke in the starting lineup. They're missing two of their starting 5, which should put Okeke in a prime spot for a LOT of minutes. We know what he's capable of doing when he's extended past 30 minutes too.

ADDED - We should see Wagner extended a little bit here with two starters down. With Suggs and Carter off the floor, he averages .93 FP/min this year.

ADDED - One lineup, two Wagners? I don't hate the idea. We just saw Wagner play 25 minutes last game and he put up 25 DKP. With Suggs and Carter off the floor, Wagner has a 24.6% USG and averages 1.17 FP/min.

ADDED - I mean, no Malcolm Brogdon makes it very hard to ignore Haliburton, especially on FD & Y! DK is very hard to get to at nearly 10K, however.