NBA DFS Playbook: March 28

The Spurs are on the outside looking into the playoff picture but they’re only ONE game behind the Lakers for 10th place. Murray played 40 minutes and triple-doubled last time out and has dominated the Rockets this year. He’s averaged 58.2 DKP/game in three meetings coming into this game.

Young just has massive upside, man. He’s showing it a LOT lately and they’ve needed it with John Collins out for the year. Trae has averaged north of 60 DKP/game against Indiana this year and IND has been HORRIBLE defensively lately. Indiana is 28th in DRtg since the beginning of March.

Ball has been much better lately and has been playing during crunch time, a problem that had haunted him for a couple of months. He’s put up 50+ DKP in two of three games and had 60+ against the Nets on Sunday. This game is one of three on the board with a 230+ O/U. GPPs only, however, because he hasn’t exactly been consistent.

No Curry, Thompson, Green, or Porter either. Poole has been dominant lately, putting up 42+ DKP in three straight games and has 38+ DKP in seven of his last eight games. It’s obviously a VERY high price point, not one we’re used to on DK, but with everyone out, why wouldn’t we take a shot here?

This is a TOUGH match-up and a price point we’re not used to, but what’s wrong with going to a guy who’s put up 38 DKP in three straight games. The Kings are missing their two big hitters in Fox and Sabonis, which puts Mitchell in the limelight. With everyone that’s out or been traded, Mitchell has a 24.4% USG rate, which leads the team.

I know the price isn’t ideal, but Jones has been awesome filling in for Ja Morant. He has two double-doubles over his last three games and has 30+ DKP in three of four. The one he didn’t he only played 25 minutes. Jones is a very solid cash game play here.

Look at what Maledon has done in the last two games without SGA. He’s been brilliant from a fantasy perspective. He’s scored 20+ points and 32+ DKP in each game. When you remove SGA, Dort, Giddey, and Bazley from the floor – the four highest usage players on OKC – Maledon has a 24.7% USG and averages 1.00 FP/min.

UPDATE: Payton is QUEST. If he plays he's a GPP option. ORIGINAL: You would think with guys out, that Payton will be extended here. Right? RIGHT? We know Steve Kerr and although it’s likely he’s extended, it’s not something we can guarantee honestly. No Curry, Thompson, Porter, Green? Surely Payton approaches 30 minutes here. We saw his upside just two games ago when given that type of run.

This has been Green’s best month of his rookie campaign by far as he’s averaging 19.5 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game on 49% shooting, which is the best he’s shot by a MILE. The Spurs are very bad defensively and Green comes into this game rolling, scoring 23 & 25 points in his last two games while hitting 11 three’s over that span.

UPDATE: Tatum, Brown, Horford, Williams are all OUT. ORIGINAL: If the Celtics are without Tatum, Horford, and Williams, Smart is an elite mid-tier option here. With all three off the floor, Smart has a 1.24 FP/min average along with a 25.4% USG rate. We’ve seen Smart when he can score a lot of points, he’s dominant. The last two 20+ scoring out puts he’s put up 40+ DKP.

All systems go for Mann as there will be no SGA alongside him here. In fact, it’s SGA, Dort, Giddey, and Bazley off the floor and in those situations, Mann leads the team with a 29.4% USG rate while averaging one FP/min as well. Mann’s not afraid to shoot and Portland’s defense will give him many open looks here. They’re 30th in DRtg this month.

I don’t hate that LeVert is off a minutes limit and played 36 minutes last game. I don’t hate that at all. Was he great? No, but he was solid, scoring 17 points and 28.8 DKP. Orlando is a very tasty match-up for LeVert as he scored 26 points and 45 DKP in his one meeting with them this season.

UPDATE: Tatum, Brown, Horford, Williams are all OUT. Elite play. ORIGINAL: I know most of what the Celtics are down here comes in the front court, but if Jayson Tatum sits, White could shift into the starting lineup as Jaylen Brown moves over to play SF. White’s a very good fantasy producer when given the opportunity as he’s topped 27 DKP in two of his last three games now that he’s played 30 minutes in all three.

Krejci is getting an opportunity to play meaningful minutes down the stretch of the season due to who’s out of the OKC lineup. He’s played 27+ minutes in four of the last five games and has put up 23+ DKP in two straight. He gets the worst defense in basketball here and has upside in this spot.

This is one of the few games on the board with a 230 O/U and we’re looking to take advantage of that fact. Bridges has now put up 40+ DKP in three straight and in four of five overall. Denver has not been great defensively this month ranking 23rd in that category. Look for Bridges to take advantage of that.

It’s not like Brooks has played poorly at all, but his team keeps blowing out their opponents and he hasn’t been able to reach his full fantasy potential because of it. He’s scored 19+ points in three straight games and 30+ FP in two of three. He has a 29.6% USG rate and averages 1.06 FP/min without Ja Morant this year.

This is too much OKC for my liking, but based on who’s in/out, it doesn’t surprise me that all these guys are popping. Poku has played 28+ minutes in five straight and has topped 30 DKP twice in three games. Pokusevski is a solid play against a bad Portland defense. By bad, they’re the worst defense.

I mean, yeah, OKC is down so many guys it’s likely Waters plays around 24-26 minutes again here. He played just that against Denver last time out and put up 31 DKP, which was the second time in the last four games he’s put up at least 25. He has upside at just 3.6K.

Yes Boston’s defense has been great, but they’re likely without Horford, Williams, and Tatum here. That’s tough to manage and stop Siakam without. The Raptors may also be without Vanvleet and Trent Jr here. If they’re both out, the offense will start and end without Siakam.

This has been one of the better spots for bigs all year long and Mobley already has a 37 DKP game against them that fell one rebound shy of a double-double. With Allen, Sexton, and Rondo out, Mobley averages north of 1 FP/min and is around a 23% USG.

If Goga Bitadze is ruled out, we should expect Smith to start at center again, especially with Isaiah Jackson already out. Smith is a FP/min monster as he’s averaged 1.13 FP/min as a Pacer this year. Look at Smith’s game log. The guy rarely flops when he gets a bunch of time.

If Gallo suits up, he’ll likely play 30+ minutes and is a great play against Indiana who doesn’t play a lick of defense. Gallo has played 30+ minutes in four straight games and has topped 28 DKP in three straight as well. ATL is without John Collins and Gallinari will continue starting in his place.

Golden State will be without almost all of their regulars here, including Green and Porter, the two guys directly correlated to Kuminga’s minutes and time in the rotation. On the year, Kuminga has a robust 23.5% USG and averages .91 FP/min.

I mean, Williams will be extended to what..35 minutes or so? No Horford, Tatum, Brown, or Rob Williams here. Williams flashed his upside just two games ago, notching 38 DKP in it.

Jokic against the Hornets. A match made in heaven. Jokic had 70 DKP last game and had 66 DKP against the Hornets this season. Yeah, top spend of the slate.

The Blazers continue to just sign Eubanks to all these 10-day deals and now, Watford is out, Nurkic is done for the year and Greg Brown is questionable. It might be all Eubanks all the time here. He’s averaged .96 FP/min this year on Portland and has put up 38+ DKP in two of three games.

How is Indiana going to keep Capela off the glass? I’m not sure they have any shot of doing so. Capela has 20 rebound upside here, especially without John Collins in the lineup. Indiana is terrible defensively too, so he COULD have a solid offensive game.

Since coming back to Boston, Theis has been a FP/min guy, averaging 1.04 FP/min with them. There’s no Rob Williams, Al Horford, or Jayson Tatum here. Jaylen Brown too. Could we see Theis extended here? We surely could.

The guy puts up NUMBERS when he’s extended. He can do it on both ends of the floor and with Draymond Green, Otto Porter Jr. out, Bjelica could end up splitting time with Kevon Looney at the five. Maybe even play some power-forward too. GPPs only because he may only play 15-17 minutes.

ADDED - With Tatum and Brown out, Nesmith is the most logical member of the Celtics that's extended here. He could honestly see upwards of 30 minutes, which would bring him firmly into play here at min salary. If he starts, he's an elite value for all formats.

ADDED - The Celtics could use Pritchard a bunch here because they could just play Smart at SG defensively, which would make sense because they could use PP's offensive prowess. He's an elite offensive player when his shot is falling. With the guys out that are out, Pritchard has a 27% USG and averages 1.12 FP/min.

ADDED - We've seen Portland actually start Elleby as a small ball power forward recently, so with Watford and Brown out, as well as Winslow and Hart, it's likely they do that again here. He's not the best FP/min player, but he's cheap and should play 30+ minutes.

ADDED - We're getting 30 minutes from Keon Johnson, right? What other options do they have? I don't see anything else in the cards considering who's out. The first-round pick from this year is not shy about hoisting shots, taking 13 and 15 shots in two of the last three games.

ADDED - With Christian Wood ruled out, it's Sengun SZN, y'all. With Wood, Schroder, and Eric Gordon off the floor, Sengun has a 22% USG and avgs. 1.12 FP/min. He's an elite mid-tier option.

ADDED - We could see Martin shift into the starting lineup here, moving Jae'Sean Tate to SF, but even if we don't, the fact that Gordon, Wood, and Schroder are out means more run for Martin. He averages .86 FP/min without those guys on the floor.

ADDED - We know Porter can do a LOT things on the floor and with Wood, Schroder, and Gordon out, Porter is one of the top dogs on this team. Maybe THE top dog.

ADDED - With the Hawks ruling out both Danilo Gallinari and De'Andre Hunter, Bogdanovic gets a big bump. Including JOhn COllins being off the floor, BB has a 26.2% USG and averages 1.16 FP/min.

ADDED - Atlanta stinks defensively and the Pacers have eight guys with Oshae Brissett being ruled out. He'll play 30+ minutes here once again.

ADDED - Taylor is STARTING at power forward and will likely play all the minutes he can handle here. He's played 25 minutes a night over the last two weeks and has consistently been north of 20 FP with the exception of last game.